NASDAQ-100 (QQQ)
Data Tables
Rallies & Corrections
The data tables below analyze every market correction and rally in the NASDAQ-100 dating back to January 2010—and in some cases, as far back as 2007. The purpose of these tables is to highlight clear market trends that can be used as a forecasting tool for establishing market outlooks. Members can sort and explore the data to independently reach their own conclusions. For example, members might sort the data by the largest corrections, the longest corrections by duration, the strongest post-correction rallies, or the typical duration of these rallies. These are just a few examples—there are literally hundreds of data points that members can examine and analyze. This page is continually updated and remains a work in progress.
Table 1.0: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Correction Table
Table 1.0 outlines every correction between January 2010 and February 2025 as of the time of this writing. The point of this data is to help illustrate several key trends in NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) correction. First, that every correction leads into an immediate post-correction rally of some kind. Whether the market recovers in V-shaped or W-shaped recovery or whether it continues lower in an extended bear market, one thing is true of every past correction. The market typically rallies between 8-15% immediately after the correction concludes. Second, that most corrections end in 4-weeks (20-sessions) with 90%+ ending by day 33. Third, that most corrections (75%+) lead to losses of 14% or less. Clearly, there are a lot of other trends to discover here. But the main focus is to help us understand how corrections play out in order to Navigate future corrections.
| Top Date | Peak Price | Bottom Price | Pt. Loss | Pct. Loss | Trade Days | Bottom Day | Bottom Date | Rally Pts. | Rally % | Rally Duration | Legs | % Per Day |
| Feb 19, 2025*** | $539.40 | $401.94 | -$137.46 | -25.49% | 34 | Monday | 04/07/25 | $148.05 | 36.84% | 57 | 2 | +0.65% |
| Dec 16, 2024 | $538.28 | $499.70 | -$38.58 | -7.17% | 18 | Monday | 01/13/25 | $41.11 | 8.23% | 26 | 2 | +0.32% |
| Aug 22, 2024 | $484.08 | $446.84 | -$37.24 | -7.70% | 11 | Friday | 09/06/24 | $67.91 | 15.20% | 46 | 1 | +1.48% |
| July 10, 2024 | $502.00 | $422.18 | -$79.82 | -15.90% | 18 | Monday | 08/05/24 | $61.90 | 14.66% | 14 | 2 | +1.05% |
| Mar 21, 2024 | $447.28 | $411.17 | -$36.11 | -8.07% | 21 | Friday | 04/19/24 | $90.83 | 22.09% | 55 | 1 | +0.40% |
| Oct 12, 2023 | $370.60 | $339.47 | -$31.13 | -8.40% | 11 | Thursday | 10/26/23 | $51.36 | 15.13% | 24 | 1 | +0.63% |
| Sep 1, 2023 | $377.08 | $348.40 | -$28.68 | -7.62% | 18 | Wednesday | 09/27/23 | $22.20 | 6.37% | 12 | 1 | +0.53% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | $384.16 | $351.22 | -$32.94 | -8.58% | 23 | Friday | 08/19/23 | $25.86 | 7.36% | 10 | 1 | +0.73% |
| Feb 2, 2023 | $309.68 | $281.56 | -$28.12 | -9.08% | 27 | Monday | 03/12/23 | $68.40 | 24.93% | 55 | 2 | +0.45% |
| Dec 12, 2022 | $292.39 | $256.42 | -$35.97 | -12.30% | 11 | Wednesday | 12/28/22 | $53.26 | 20.77% | 24 | 1 | +0.87% |
| Sep 12, 2022 | $305.83 | $250.42 | -$42.76 | -16.25% | 23 | Friday | 10/13/22 | $38.41 | 15.34% | 24 | 2 | +0.64% |
| Aug 16, 2022 | $328.78 | $285.97 | -$42.81 | -13.02% | 15 | Tuesday | 09/06/22 | $19.86 | 6.95% | 5 | 1 | +1.39% |
| Mar 22, 2022 | $364.86 | $264.23 | -$100.63 | -27.58% | 56 | Friday | 06/17/22 | $64.55 | 24.42% | 42 | 3 | +0.58% |
| Feb 2, 2022 | $362.71 | $311.11 | -$51.60 | -14.23% | 28 | Monday | 03/14/22 | $53.75 | 17.28% | 12 | 1 | +1.44% |
| Dec 28, 2021 | $396.50 | $327.48 | -$69.02 | -21.08% | 19 | Monday | 01/24/22 | $35.23 | 10.76% | 8 | 2 | +1.35% |
| Sep 7, 2021 | $374.24 | $342.89 | -$31.35 | -8.38% | 20 | Monday | 10/04/21 | $49.59 | 14.46% | 25 | 2 | +0.58% |
| Apr 28, 2021 | $334.77 | $308.60 | -$26.17 | -7.82% | 10 | Wednesday | 05/12/21 | $48.74 | 15.80% | 44 | 2 | +0.36% |
| Feb 16, 2021 | $329.85 | $290.12 | -$39.73 | -12.05% | 14 | Friday | 03/05/21 | $44.09 | 15.20% | 30 | 2 | +1.47% |
| Oct 12, 2020 | $289.60 | $259.92 | -$29.68 | -10.25% | 16 | Monday | 11/02/20 | $62.26 | 23.95% | 57 | 1 | +0.42% |
| Sep 2, 2020 | $295.05 | $253.24 | -$41.81 | -14.17% | 13 | Monday | 09/21/20 | $36.36 | 14.36% | 16 | 2 | +0.90% |
| Feb 19, 2020 | $229.94 | $160.06 | -$69.88 | -30.39% | 24 | Monday | 03/23/20 | $66.61 | 84.34% | 114 | 6 | +0.74% |
| Sep 12, 2019 | $187.75 | $175.67 | -$12.08 | -6.43% | 16 | Thursday | 10/03/19 | $23.41 | 13.33% | 38 | 1 | +0.35% |
| July 26, 2019 | $188.56 | $172.79 | -$15.77 | -8.36% | 7 | Monday | 08/05/19 | $14.96 | 8.66% | 28 | 1 | +0.31% |
| May 1, 2019 | $184.07 | $162.86 | -$21.21 | -11.52% | 23 | Monday | 06/03/19 | $25.70 | 15.78% | 39 | 2 | +0.41% |
| Oct 1, 2018 | $179.58 | $137.77 | -$41.81 | -23.28% | 59 | Monday | 12/24/18 | $38.13 | 27.68% | 60 | 5 | +0.46% |
| Mar 13, 2018 | $166.86 | $146.78 | -$20.08 | -12.03% | 14 | Monday | 04/02/18 | $23.35 | 15.91% | 57 | 1 | +0.28% |
| Jan 26, 2018 | $162.80 | $142.97 | -$19.83 | -12.18% | 11 | Friday | 02/09/18 | $23.89 | 16.71% | 22 | 1 | +0.76% |
| June 9, 2017 | $136.08 | $128.77 | -$7.31 | -5.37% | 19 | Thursday | 07/06/17 | $9.64 | 7.49% | 16 | 2 | +0.47% |
| June 6, 2016 | $103.67 | $95.50 | -$8.17 | -7.88% | 16 | Monday | 06/27/17 | $15.99 | 16.74% | 25 | 2 | +0.67% |
| Apr 19, 2016 | $104.32 | $97.73 | -$6.59 | -6.32% | 14 | Friday | 05/06/16 | $5.94 | 6.08% | 21 | 2 | +0.29% |
| Dec 29, 2015 | $106.91 | $88.52 | -$18.39 | -17.20% | 28 | Monday | 02/08/16 | $15.80 | 17.85% | 50 | 2 | +0.36% |
| July 20, 2015 | $106.18 | $78.66 | -$27.52 | -25.92% | 26 | Monday | 08/24/15 | $22.26 | 28.30% | 18 | 2 | +1.57% |
| Sep 19, 2014 | $92.57 | $83.07 | -$9.50 | -10.26% | 19 | Wednesday | 10/15/14 | $14.73 | 17.73% | 32 | 2 | +0.55% |
| Mar 7, 2014 | $83.49 | $76.28 | -$7.21 | -8.64% | 28 | Tuesday | 04/15/14 | $13.27 | 17.40% | 70 | 2 | +0.25% |
| May 22, 2013 | $67.57 | $62.54 | -$5.03 | -7.44% | 23 | Monday | 05/22/13 | $5.96 | 9.53% | 17 | 3 | +0.56% |
| Sep 21, 2012 | $63.10 | $54.84 | -$8.26 | -13.09% | 39 | Friday | 11/16/12 | $4.88 | 8.90% | 23 | 4 | +0.39% |
| Apr 3, 2012 | $61.00 | $53.43 | -$7.57 | -12.41% | 43 | Monday | 06/04/12 | $9.67 | 18.10% | 78 | 4 | +0.23% |
| Oct 27, 2011 | $52.44 | $46.83 | -$5.61 | -10.70% | 21 | Friday | 11/25/11 | $14.17 | 30.26% | 89 | 2 | +0.34% |
| Sep 20, 2011 | $50.80 | $44.38 | -$6.42 | -12.64% | 11 | Tuesday | 10/04/11 | $8.06 | 18.16% | 18 | 2 | +1.01% |
| July 26, 2011 | $52.90 | $44.15 | -$8.75 | -16.54% | 11 | Tuesday | 08/09/11 | $6.65 | 15.06% | 30 | 1 | +0.50% |
| May 2, 2011 | $52.35 | $47.30 | -$5.05 | -9.65% | 33 | Thursday | 06/16/11 | $5.60 | 11.84% | 28 | 2 | +0.42% |
| Feb 16, 2011 | $52.01 | $47.37 | -$4.64 | -8.92% | 20 | Wednesday | 03/16/11 | $4.98 | 10.51% | 33 | 2 | +0.32% |
| Nov 9, 2010 | $47.51 | $44.71 | -$2.80 | -5.90% | 6 | Tuesday | 11/16/10 | $7.30 | 16.33% | 64 | 1 | +0.26% |
| Aug 9, 2010 | $41.39 | $37.69 | -$3.70 | -8.94% | 15 | Friday | 08/27/10 | $9.82 | 26.05% | 52 | 2 | +0.50% |
| Jun 21, 2010 | $41.82 | $36.64 | -$5.80 | -12.40% | 9 | Thursday | 07/01/10 | $4.75 | 12.96% | 27 | 1 | +0.48% |
| Apl 26, 2010 | $44.34 | $36.38 | -$7.97 | -17.97% | 9 | Thursday | 05/06/10 | $6.34 | 17.43% | 6 | 1 | +2.91% |
| May 13, 2010 | $42.72 | $37.85 | -$4.87 | -11.40% | 9 | Tuesday | 05/25/10 | $3.97 | 10.49% | 19 | 1 | +0.55% |
| Jan 19, 2010 | $40.79 | $36.84 | -$3.95 | -9.69% | 14 | Friday | 02/05/10 | $7.50 | 20.36% | 55 | 2 | +0.37% |
Table 1.0: Analysis
Table 1.0 outlines every correction between January 2010 and February 2025 as of the time of this writing. The point of this data is to help illustrate several key trends in NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) correction. First, that every correction leads into an immediate post-correction rally of some kind. Whether the market recovers in V-shaped or W-shaped recovery or whether it continues lower in an extended bear market, one thing is true of every past correction. The market typically rallies between 8-15% immediately after the correction concludes. Second, that most corrections end in 4-weeks (20-sessions) with 90%+ ending by day 33. Third, that most corrections (75%+) lead to losses of 14% or less. Clearly, there are a lot of other trends to discover here. But the main focus is to help us understand how corrections play out in order to Navigate future corrections.
Table 2.0: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) 30-RSI Events
| 30-RSI Date | Bottom-Date | Price at 30-RSI | Price at Low | RSI Low-Point | Pt. Loss | Pct. Loss | Trading Sessions | Ensuing Rally | Net Rally from 30-RSI | Rally Duration |
| 03/05/2007 | 03/05/2007 | $38.53 | $38.53 | 30.00 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 11.11% | 11.11% | 38 |
| 08/16/2007 | 08/16/2007 | $40.73 | $40.73 | 30.00 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 24.11% | 24.11% | 53 |
| 11/12/2007 | 11/12/2007 | $44.66 | $44.66 | 30.80 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 08.60% | 08.60% | 20 |
| 01/08/2008 | 01/23/2008 | $43.25 | $38.24 | 23.00 | -$5.01 | -11.58% | 11 | 10.22% | -02.54% | 3 |
| 02/06/2008 | 02/07/2008 | $39.30 | $38.73 | 28.00 | -$0.57 | -1.45% | 2 | 06.48% | 04.94% | 5 |
| 03/10/2008 | 03/17/2008 | $38.10 | $37.72 | 29.00 | -$0.38 | -1.00% | 6 | 22.96% | 21.73% | 44 |
| 01/08/2008 | 03/17/2008 | $43.25 | $37.72 | 23.00 | -$5.53 | -12.79% | 47 | 22.96% | 07.24% | 44 |
| 09/08/2008 | 09/18/2008 | $39.50 | $36.32 | 20.00 | -$3.18 | -8.05% | 8 | 11.04% | 02.10% | 2 |
| 09/29/2008 | 10/10/2008 | $35.00 | $27.03 | 16.00 | -$7.97 | -22.77% | 10 | 23.05% | -04.97% | 3 |
| 10/15/2008 | 10/16/2008 | $28.30 | $26.92 | 27.00 | -$1.38 | -4.88% | 2 | 13.67% | 09.40% | 3 |
| 10/24/2008 | 10/24/2008 | $26.60 | $25.85 | 28.50 | -$0.75 | -2.82% | 1 | 21.08% | 17.67% | 8 |
| 11/20/2008 | 11/21/2008 | $23.44 | $23.05 | 30.00 | -$0.39 | -1.67% | 2 | 23.08% | 21.03% | 12 |
| 03/09/2009 | 03/09/2009 | $23.62 | $23.62 | 31.00 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 38.10% | 38.10% | 41 |
| 05/07/2010 | 05/07/2010 | $42.50 | $41.08 | 26.00 | -$1.42 | -3.34% | 1 | 10.18% | 06.49% | 5 |
| 05/21/2010 | 05/21/2010 | $40.50 | $40.10 | 29.10 | -$0.40 | -1.00% | 1 | 08.20% | 07.14% | 9 |
| 07/01/2010 | 07/01/2010 | $39.40 | $38.82 | 29.00 | -$0.58 | -1.47% | 1 | 09.69% | 08.07% | 10 |
| 03/16/2011 | 03/16/2011 | $50.19 | $50.19 | 30.00 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 07.83% | 07.83% | 13 |
| 06/17/2011 | 06/17/2011 | $50.25 | $50.25 | 30.00 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 10.67% | 10.67% | 14 |
| 08/05/2011 | 08/09/2011 | $50.00 | $46.78 | 20.00 | -$3.22 | -6.44% | 3 | 08.87% | 01.86% | 5 |
| 05/16/2012 | 06/04/2012 | $59.23 | $56.62 | 22.00 | -$2.61 | -4.41% | 12 | 07.79% | 03.04% | 13 |
| 11/08/2012 | 11/16/2012 | $60.00 | $58.11 | 23.00 | -$1.89 | -3.15% | 7 | 08.26% | 04.85% | 11 |
| 10/15/2014 | 10/15/2014 | $90.12 | $88.02 | 26.00 | -$2.10 | -2.33% | 1 | 17.75% | 15.00% | 31 |
| 08/20/2015 | 08/24/2015 | $103.84 | $91.00 | 13.00 | -$12.84 | -12.37% | 2 | 17.52% | 03.00% | 18 |
| 01/07/2016 | 02/08/2016 | $103.75 | $93.80 | 28.00 | -$9.95 | -9.59% | 22 | 17.84% | 06.54% | 50 |
| 06/27/2016 | 06/27/2016 | $101.72 | $101.20 | 29.00 | -$0.52 | -0.51% | 1 | 14.76% | 14.18% | 29 |
| 11/04/2016 | 11/04/2016 | $113.40 | $113.12 | 29.30 | -$0.28 | -0.27% | 1 | 04.34% | 04.02% | 5 |
| 02/09/2018 | 02/09/2018 | $145.00 | $142.97 | 28.31 | -$2.03 | -1.41% | 1 | 16.71% | 15.08% | 22 |
| 03/25/2018 | 04/02/2018 | $151.12 | $146.78 | 33.00 | -$4.34 | -2.87% | 5 | 15.91% | 12.58% | 56 |
| 10/10/2018 | 10/11/2018 | $167.00 | $160.70 | 20.00 | -$6.30 | -3.77% | 2 | 06.23% | 02.22% | 5 |
| 10/24/2018 | 10/29/2018 | $159.00 | $153.31 | 29.62 | -$6.59 | -3.58% | 4 | 09.67% | 05.75% | 8 |
| 12/21/2018 | 12/24/2018 | $142.50 | $137.77 | 25.82 | -$4.73 | -3.32% | 2 | 33.61% | 29.17% | 83 |
| 05/13/2019 | 05/13/2019 | $171.32 | $171.32 | 30.70 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 04.50% | 04.50% | 4 |
| 06/03/2019 | 06/03/2019 | $165.00 | $162.86 | 25.85 | -$2.14 | -1.30% | 1 | 15.78% | 14.28% | 38 |
| 08/05/2019 | 08/05/2019 | $174.50 | $172.79 | 27.67 | -$1.79 | -1.00% | 1 | 08.66% | 07.59% | 28 |
| 02/27/2020 | 02/28/2020 | $201.00 | $191.88 | 20.00 | -$9.12 | -4.54% | 2 | 10.82% | 05.79% | 3 |
| 03/12/2020 | 03/23/2020 | $172.30 | $160.06 | 28.00 | -$12.24 | -7.10% | 8 | 52.55% | 41.71% | 65 |
| 10/04/2021 | 10/04/2021 | $345.50 | $342.89 | 29.10 | -$2.61 | -0.76% | 1 | 16.67% | 15.79% | 36 |
| 01/21/2022 | 01/24/2022 | $348.00 | $327.48 | 19.00 | -$20.52 | -5.90% | 2 | 10.76% | 04.13% | 8 |
| 02/24/2022 | 02/24/2022 | $315.00 | $311.91 | 27.00 | -$3.09 | -1.00% | 1 | 16.98% | 15.83% | 24 |
| 05/12/2022 | 05/20/2022 | $280.00 | $274.96 | 30.00 | -$5.04 | -1.80% | 7 | 12.26% | 10.24% | 9 |
| 10/02/2022 | 10/13/2022 | $271.00 | $250.42 | 30.00 | -$20.58 | -7.59% | 14 | 16.32% | 07.49% | 35 |
| 10/26/2023 | 10/26/2023 | $339.47 | $339.47 | 31.36 | -$0.00 | -0.00% | 1 | 20.92% | 20.92% | 44 |
| 04/19/2024 | 04/19/2024 | $413.00 | $411.17 | 29.45 | -$1.83 | -0.44% | 1 | 11.57% | 11.10% | 25 |
| 08/05/2024 | 08/05/2024 | $433.00 | $423.43 | 22.00 | -$9.57 | -2.21% | 1 | 14.66% | 11.80% | 14 |
| 03/07/2025 | 03/13/2025 | $479.60 | $465.74 | 25.00 | -$13.86 | -2.89% | 5 | 5.99% | 2.92% | 9 |
| 04/04/2025 | 04/07/2025 | $440.37 | $402.39 | 19.00 | -$37.98 | -8.62% | 2 | 22.03% | 5.99% | 19 |
Table 3.0: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Segmented Rally Cycle
Table 3.0 analyzes the Segmented Rally Cycle. Market rallies don’t simply climb steadily upward from one correction low to the next market peak. Instead, rallies typically unfold in a stair-step pattern, which we refer to as “Segments.” Each segment typically involves the market rising sharply by around 8–10% over a period of 10–15 trading sessions, followed by a pullback of about 3–5% lasting 3–7 sessions. A full intermediate-term rally usually consists of 3–5 of these segments, spanning roughly 40–70 sessions between corrections. Table 3.0 details the size, scope, and duration of every Segmented Rally within the 2023–2025 bull market.
| Segmented Rally Date | Rally Days | Rally Pts. | Rally % | Peak Price | Low Price | Pt. Loss | % Loss | Trading Days to Bottom |
| Oct 2025 | 13 | $47.96 | 8.14% | $637.01 | $602.85 | -$34.16 | -5.36% | 7 |
| Oct 2025 | 12 | $24.68 | 4.19% | $613.18 | $589.05 | -$24.13 | -3.94% | 1 |
| Sep 2025 | 15 | $43.98 | 7.87% | $602.87 | $588.50 | -$14.37 | -2.38% | 4 |
| August 2025 | 9 | $31.60 | 5.73% | $582.64 | $558.19 | -$24.45 | -4.20% | 6 |
| July 2025 | 28 | $50.98 | 9.74% | $574.63 | $551.68 | -$22.95 | -3.99% | 2 |
| May 2025 | 13 | $31.17 | 6.17% | $536.18 | $523.65 | -$12.53 | -2.34% | 8 |
| Apr 2025 | 11 | $46.16 | 9.69% | $522.41 | $505.01 | -$17.40 | -3.33% | 3 |
| Apr 2025 | 10 | $62.98 | 14.72% | $490.91 | $476.78 | -$14.13 | -2.88% | 4 |
| Feb 2025 | 12 | $29.72 | 5.82% | $540.01 | $508.68 | -$31.33 | -5.80% | 5 |
| Jan 2025 | 8 | $34.07 | 6.83% | $533.03 | $509.39 | -$23.64 | -4.44% | 3 |
| Dec 2024 | 21 | $44.67 | 8.29% | $539.16 | $509.00 | -$30.16 | -5.60% | 3 |
| Nov 2024 | 8 | $31.88 | 6.60% | $515.58 | $494.49 | -$21.09 | -4.10% | 5 |
| Oct 2024 | 9 | $21.48 | 4.50% | $498.88 | $485.05 | -$13.78 | -2.76% | 7 |
| Sep 2024 | 15 | $46.20 | 10.32% | $493.70 | $477.40 | -$16.30 | -3.30% | 4 |
| Aug 2024 | 14 | $62.09 | 14.66% | $485.54 | $467.89 | -$17.65 | -3.64% | 5 |
| July 2024 | 12 | $29.70 | 6.27% | $503.52 | $473.94 | -$29.58 | -5.88% | 7 |
| June 2024 | 12 | $43.74 | 9.89% | $486.09 | $473.82 | -$12.27 | -2.53% | 6 |
| May 2024 | 16 | $39.89 | 9.50% | $459.85 | $442.35 | -$17.50 | -3.81% | 6 |
| Apr 2024 | 7 | $20.66 | 5.01% | $433.07 | $419.96 | -$13.11 | -3.03% | 4 |
| Feb 2024 | 9 | $22.28 | 5.36% | $437.86 | $420.40 | -$17.46 | -3.99% | 7 |
| Jan 2024 | 13 | $34.41 | 8.73% | $428.60 | $415.58 | -$13.02 | -3.04% | 6 |
| Dec 2023 | 18 | $31.13 | 8.18% | $411.72 | $394.19 | -$17.53 | -4.26% | 6 |
| Oct 2023 | 24 | $51.51 | 15.13% | $392.01 | $380.59 | -$11.42 | -2.91% | 4 |
| Sep 2023 | 13 | $22.26 | 6.37% | $371.72 | $357.00 | -$14.72 | -3.96% | 5 |
| Aug 2023 | 11 | $25.94 | 7.36% | $378.22 | $365.12 | -$13.10 | -3.46% | 4 |
| July 2023 | 17 | $30.18 | 8.50% | $385.32 | $371.77 | -$13.55 | -3.52% | 4 |
| June 2023 | 8 | $24.22 | 7.01% | $369.78 | $355.14 | -$14.64 | -3.96% | 6 |
| May 2023 | 8 | $27.71 | 8.48% | $354.56 | $345.56 | -$9.00 | -2.54% | 4 |
| April 2023 | 20 | $28.55 | 9.29% | $335.89 | $326.85 | -$9.04 | -2.69% | 5 |
| Mar 2023 | 8 | $30.25 | 10.71% | $312.66 | $302.27 | -$10.39 | -3.32% | 5 |
| Feb 2023 | 7 | $32.18 | 11.56% | $310.62 | $294.35 | -$16.27 | -5.24% | 7 |
| Jan 2023 | 8 | $24.11 | 9.35% | $281.91 | $271.22 | -$10.69 | -3.79% | 2 |
| Jan 2023 | 3 | $16.16 | 6.00% | $287.38 | $278.44 | -$8.94 | -3.11% | 3 |
| Averages | 12 | $33.84 | 8.67% | – | – | -$16.17 | -3.75% | 5 |
Table 3.1: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Late Stage Segments
Table 3.1 analyzes the Segmented Rally Cycle after backing out the initial or early segments. The point is to give us a picture of what the average segment should really look like when they occur after the initial rally off of the lows. There’s a big difference between a segment that occurs of off a correction low and the last segment in a long rally as the momentum has waned. That’s what Table 3.1 look at.
| Segmented Rally Date | Rally Days | Rally Pts. | Rally % | Peak Price | Low Price | Pt. Loss | % Loss | Trading Days to Bottom |
| Oct 2025 | 13 | $47.96 | 8.14% | $637.01 | $621.37 | -$15.64 | -2.46% | 5 |
| Oct 2025 | 12 | $24.68 | 4.19% | $613.18 | $589.05 | -$24.13 | -3.94% | 1 |
| Sep 2025 | 15 | $43.98 | 7.87% | $602.87 | $588.50 | -$14.37 | -2.38% | 4 |
| August 2025 | 9 | $31.60 | 5.73% | $582.64 | $558.19 | -$24.45 | -4.20% | 6 |
| July 2025 | 28 | $50.98 | 9.74% | $574.63 | $551.68 | -$22.95 | -3.99% | 2 |
| May 2025 | 13 | $31.17 | 6.17% | $536.18 | $523.65 | -$12.53 | -2.34% | 8 |
| Feb 2025 | 12 | $29.72 | 5.82% | $540.01 | $508.68 | -$31.33 | -5.80% | 5 |
| Jan 2025 | 8 | $34.07 | 6.83% | $533.03 | $509.39 | -$23.64 | -4.44% | 3 |
| Dec 2024 | 21 | $44.67 | 8.29% | $539.16 | $509.00 | -$30.16 | -5.60% | 3 |
| Nov 2024 | 8 | $31.88 | 6.60% | $515.58 | $494.49 | -$21.09 | -4.10% | 5 |
| Oct 2024 | 9 | $21.48 | 4.50% | $498.88 | $485.05 | -$13.78 | -2.76% | 7 |
| July 2024 | 12 | $29.70 | 6.27% | $503.52 | $473.94 | -$29.58 | -5.88% | 7 |
| Apr 2024 | 7 | $20.66 | 5.01% | $433.07 | $419.96 | -$13.11 | -3.03% | 4 |
| Feb 2024 | 9 | $22.28 | 5.36% | $437.86 | $420.40 | -$17.46 | -3.99% | 7 |
| Jan 2024 | 13 | $34.41 | 8.73% | $428.60 | $415.58 | -$13.02 | -3.04% | 6 |
| Dec 2023 | 18 | $31.13 | 8.18% | $411.72 | $394.19 | -$17.53 | -4.26% | 6 |
| Sep 2023 | 13 | $22.26 | 6.37% | $371.72 | $357.00 | -$14.72 | -3.96% | 5 |
| Aug 2023 | 11 | $25.94 | 7.36% | $378.22 | $365.12 | -$13.10 | -3.46% | 4 |
| July 2023 | 17 | $30.18 | 8.50% | $385.32 | $371.77 | -$13.55 | -3.52% | 4 |
| June 2023 | 8 | $24.22 | 7.01% | $369.78 | $355.14 | -$14.64 | -3.96% | 6 |
| May 2023 | 8 | $27.71 | 8.48% | $354.56 | $345.56 | -$9.00 | -2.54% | 4 |
| April 2023 | 20 | $28.55 | 9.29% | $335.89 | $326.85 | -$9.04 | -2.69% | 5 |
| Averages | 11 | $33.84 | 7.18% | – | – | -$16.17 | -3.75% | 5 |
Table 3.2: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) First Segments
Table 3.2 shows ONLY the First Segments of a new rally. The purpose of this table is to illustrate how the market tends to begin a new rally so that we can identify the difference between a mere rebound during a correction and the start of a new rally. What you’ll find is that 1st segment tend to be very explosive in the 10%+ regime.
| Segmented Rally Date | Rally Days | Rally Pts. | Rally % | Peak Price | Low Price | Pt. Loss | % Loss | Trading Days to Bottom |
| Apr 2025 | 10 | $62.98 | 14.72% | $490.91 | $476.78 | -$14.13 | -2.88% | 4 |
| Sep 2024 | 15 | $46.20 | 10.32% | $493.70 | $477.40 | -$16.30 | -3.30% | 4 |
| Aug 2024 | 14 | $62.09 | 14.66% | $485.54 | $467.89 | -$17.65 | -3.64% | 5 |
| May 2024 | 16 | $39.89 | 9.50% | $459.85 | $442.35 | -$17.50 | -3.81% | 6 |
| Apr 2024 | 7 | $20.66 | 5.01% | $433.07 | $419.96 | -$13.11 | -3.03% | 4 |
| Oct 2023 | 24 | $51.51 | 15.13% | $392.01 | $380.59 | -$11.42 | -2.91% | 4 |
| Mar 2023 | 8 | $30.25 | 10.71% | $312.66 | $302.27 | -$10.39 | -3.32% | 5 |
| Feb 2023 | 7 | $32.18 | 11.56% | $310.62 | $294.35 | -$16.27 | -5.24% | 7 |
| Averages | 13 | $43.22 | 11.45% | – | – | -$14.60 | -3.52% | 5 |
Table 4.0: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Intermediate-Term Rally
Table 4.0 analyzes the Intermediate-Term Rally Cycle, which refers to the periods of sustained upward movement in the stock market that occur between corrections. While the market tends to rise over the long run, it does not do so in a straight line. Instead, the long-term trend is composed of alternating phases of rallies and corrections. An intermediate-term rally typically lasts 3 to 6 months, during which the market gains approximately 20–22%. These rallies are often followed by a pullback—commonly known as a correction—where the market gives back about half of those gains, or roughly 12% on average. This table tracks all such rally and correction cycles from August 2010 through the first half of 2025, encompassing a total of 40 intermediate-term rallies and corrections. That equates to an average pace of roughly 3 rallies and 3 corrections per year, reflecting the market’s natural rhythm of growth and consolidation.
| Rally # | Rally Date | Rally Start Price | Rally Peak | Rally Trading Days | Total Rally % | Average Gain Per Day | Total Correction | Correction Duration | Ave. Loss Per Day |
1
| April 2025
| $401.47 | $637.01 | 144 | 58.67%
| 0.41% | –7.17%
| 15 | 0.48% |
2
| Sep 2024
| $446.18 | $540.01 | 111 | 21.03%
| 0.19% | 25.49%
| 35 | 0.73% |
3
| Aug 2024
| $421.55 | $483.36 | 14 | 14.66%
| 1.05% | 07.70%
| 11 | 0.70% |
4
| Apr 2024
| $410.56 | $501.26 | 55 | 22.09%
| 0.40% | 15.90%
| 18 | 0.88% |
5
| Nov 2023
| $338.97 | $446.61 | 100 | 31.76%
| 0.32% | 08.07%
| 21 | 0.38% |
6
| Mar 2023
| $281.14 | $383.59 | 89 | 36.62%
| 0.41% | 11.63%
| 71 | 0.37% |
7
| Dec 2022
| $256.04 | $309.22 | 25 | 20.77%
| 0.83% | 09.08%
| 27 | 0.34% |
8
| June 2022
| $263.84 | $328.29 | 42 | 24.43%
| 0.58% | 23.83%
| 43 | 0.55% |
9
| Mar 2022
| $313.09 | $364.32 | 12 | 17.27%
| 1.44% | 27.58%
| 57 | 0.48% |
10
| Dec 2021
| $370.31 | $395.91 | 18 | 7.18%
| 0.39% | 17.41%
| 41 | 0.43% |
11
| Oct 2021
| $342.38 | $399.45 | 36 | 16.67%
| 0.46% | 07.53%
| 20 | 0.38% |
12
| May 2021
| $308.14 | $373.69 | 82 | 21.26%
| 0.26% | 08.38%
| 20 | 0.42% |
13
| Mar 2021
| $289.68 | $334.27 | 41 | 15.39%
| 0.38% | 07.80%
| 10 | 0.78% |
14
| Nov 2020
| $259.53 | $329.36 | 72 | 26.90%
| 0.37% | 12.05%
| 14 | 0.86% |
15
| Sep 2020
| $252.86 | $289.17 | 16 | 14.36%
| 0.90% | 10.25%
| 16 | 0.64% |
16
| Mar 2020
| $159.82 | $294.61 | 114 | 84.34%
| 0.74% | 14.17%
| 14 | 1.01% |
17
| Oct 2019
| $175.41 | $229.60 | 95 | 30.89%
| 0.32% | 30.39%
| 07 | 2.36% |
18
| June 2019
| $162.62 | $188.28 | 39 | 15.78%
| 0.41% | 08.36%
| 07 | 1.19% |
19
| Dec 2018
| $137.57 | $183.80 | 87 | 33.60%
| 0.39% | 11.53%
| 23 | 0.50% |
20
| Apr 2018
| $146.56 | $179.32 | 111 | 22.34%
| 0.20% | 14.63%
| 20 | 0.73% |
21
| Feb 2018
| $142.76 | $166.61 | 22 | 16.71%
| 0.76% | 12.03%
| 14 | 0.86% |
22
| Jul 2017
| $128.58 | $162.56 | 141 | 26.43%
| 0.19% | 12.18%
| 10 | 1.22% |
23
| Nov 2016
| $106.59 | $135.88 | 148 | 27.48%
| 0.19% | 05.06%
| 15 | 0.34% |
24
| June 2016
| $95.36 | $112.43 | 87 | 17.90%
| 0.21% | 05.19%
| 10 | 0.52% |
25
| Feb 2016
| $88.39 | $104.16 | 50 | 17.86%
| 0.36% | 06.32%
| 14 | 0.45% |
26
| Aug 2015
| $78.54 | $107.28 | 51 | 36.59%
| 0.72% | 17.61%
| 54 | 0.33% |
27
| Feb 2015
| $92.03 | $106.02 | 120 | 15.21%
| 0.13% | 25.92%
| 26 | 1.00% |
28
| Oct 2014
| $82.95 | $97.66 | 32 | 17.74%
| 0.55% | 05.95%
| 12 | 0.50% |
29
| Apr 2014
| $76.16 | $92.44 | 111 | 21.36%
| 0.19% | 10.26%
| 19 | 0.54% |
30
| Feb 2014
| $76.09 | $83.35 | 23 | 9.55%
| 0.42% | 08.63%
| 28 | 0.31% |
31
| Jun 2013
| $62.45 | $80.87 | 147 | 29.50%
| 0.20% | 05.91%
| 10 | 0.59% |
32
| Nov 2012
| $54.76 | $67.47 | 128 | 23.22%
| 0.18% | 07.45%
| 23 | 0.33% |
33
| June 2012
| $53.35 | $63.01 | 78 | 18.10%
| 0.23% | 13.09%
| 39 | 0.34% |
34
| Dec 2011
| $46.76 | $60.91 | 74 | 26.77%
| 0.36% | 11.38%
| 33 | 0.35% |
35
| Oct 2011
| $44.31 | $52.36 | 18 | 18.18%
| 1.01% | 10.70%
| 21 | 0.51% |
36
| Aug 2011
| $44.08 | $50.73 | 30 | 15.09%
| 0.50% | 12.66%
| 11 | 1.15% |
37
| June 2011
| $47.23 | $52.82 | 28 | 11.83%
| 0.42% | 16.54%
| 11 | 1.51% |
38
| Mar 2011
| $47.30 | $52.27 | 33 | 10.51%
| 0.32% | 09.65%
| 33 | 0.29% |
39
| Nov 2010
| $44.64 | $51.93 | 64 | 16.34%
| 0.26% | 08.93%
| 20 | 0.45% |
40
| Aug 2010 | $37.64 | $47.44 | 52 | 26.04% | 0.50% | 05.89%
| 06 | 0.98% |
41
| Feb 2010 | $36.74 | $44.23 | 54 | 20.39% | 0.38% | -17.97%
| 10 | 1.80% |
42
| Nov 2009 | $35.39 | $40.68 | 53 | 14.95% | 0.28% | -09.69%
| 14 | 1.80% |
43
| July 2009 | $29.84 | $38.16 | 75 | 27.89% | 0.37% | -07.26%
| 09 | 0.81% |
44
| May 2009 | $28.64 | $32.35 | 21 | 12.95% | 0.62% | -07.76%
| 19 | 0.81% |
45
| Mar 2009 | $22.23 | $30.70 | 75 | 38.18% | 0.51% | -06.71%
| 06 | 0.81% |
46
| Nov 2008 | $21.70 | $27.48 | 54 | 26.64% | 0.49% | -19.11%
| 19 | 0.81% |
47
| July 2008 | $37.48 | $42.04 | 24 | 12.17% | 0.51% | -18.67%
| 24 | 0.81% |
48
| Mar 2008 | $35.51 | $43.77 | 56 | 23.26% | 0.42% | -14.37%
| 28 | 0.81% |
49
| Aug 2007 | $38.33 | $47.58 | 54 | 24.13% | 0.45% | -25.37%
| 93 | 0.81% |
50
| Mar 2007 | $36.27 | $43.75 | 94 | 20.62% | 0.22% | -12.39%
| 21 | 0.81% |
51
| July 2006 | $30.60 | $39.28 | 151 | 28.37% | 0.19% | -07.66%
| 08 | 0.81% |
52
| July 2005 | $32.01 | $37.23 | 59 | 16.31% | 0.28% | -17.84%
| 128 | 0.14% |
53
| May 2005 | $29.43 | $34.42 | 66 | 16.96% | 0.26% | -07.00%
| 52 | 0.33% |
54
| Aug 2004 | $27.45 | $34.52 | 99 | 25.76% | 0.26% | -14.75%
| 80 | 0.18% |
55
| May 2004 | $28.95 | $32.16 | 31 | 11.09% | 0.36% | -14.64%
| 32 | 0.46% |
56
| Aug 2003 | $25.40 | $33.10 | 114 | 30.31% | 0.27% | -12.81%
| 44 | 0.30% |
57
| Feb 2003 | $19.79 | $27.79 | 100 | 40.43% | 0.41% | -08.63%
| 20 | 0.43% |
58
| Oct 2002 | $16.77 | $24.43 | 39 | 45.68% | 1.17% | -19.00%
| 51 | 0.37% |
59
| Oct 1999 (DOT-COM) | $48.72 | $102.26 | 108 | 110.0% | 1.02% | -40.04%
| 40 | 1.00% |
Table 4.1: NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) High Volatility Rallies
Table 4.1 analyzes the Intermediate-Term Rally Cycle and is identical to table 4.0 in nearly every way. Where this table differs is that it simply removes the melt-up rallies out of the equation. When analyzing a current high volatility rally, the melt-up rallies simply create unnecessary outliers. If it’s obvious the current rally we’re currently looking at is a high volatility rally, then it makes sense to compare against other high vol rallies ONLY. Table 4.0 allows for a full comparison to the entire gamut of rallies. 4.1 allows us to compare to other similar rallies.
A melt-up rally is one that is of long duration and where the average dialy return is half that of a high volatility rally. Melt-ups generally produce returns of 0.19-0.23% per day whereas high volatility rallies produce average dialy returns of 0.39% to 1% per day. More than double in many cases.
| Rally Date | Rally Start Price | Rally Peak | Rally Trading Days | Total Rally % | Average Gain Per Day | Total Correction | Correction Duration | Ave. Loss Per Day |
April 2025
| $401.47 | $637.01 | 144 | 58.67%
| 0.41% | –7.17%
| 15 | 0.48% |
Sep 2024
| $446.18 | $540.01 | 111 | 21.03%
| 0.19% | -25.49%
| 35 | 0.73% |
Aug 2024
| $421.55 | $483.36 | 14 | 14.66%
| 1.05% | -07.70%
| 11 | 0.70% |
Apr 2024
| $410.56 | $501.26 | 55 | 22.09%
| 0.40% | -15.90%
| 18 | 0.88% |
Nov 2023
| $338.97 | $446.61 | 100 | 31.76%
| 0.32% | -08.07%
| 21 | 0.38% |
Mar 2023
| $281.14 | $383.59 | 89 | 36.62%
| 0.41% | -11.63%
| 71 | 0.37% |
Dec 2022
| $256.04 | $309.22 | 25 | 20.77%
| 0.83% | -09.08%
| 27 | 0.34% |
June 2022
| $263.84 | $328.29 | 42 | 24.43%
| 0.58% | -23.83%
| 43 | 0.55% |
Mar 2022
| $313.09 | $364.32 | 12 | 17.27%
| 1.44% | -27.58%
| 57 | 0.48% |
Dec 2021
| $370.31 | $395.91 | 18 | 7.18%
| 0.39% | -17.41%
| 41 | 0.43% |
Oct 2021
| $342.38 | $399.45 | 36 | 16.67%
| 0.46% | -07.53%
| 20 | 0.38% |
May 2021
| $308.14 | $373.69 | 82 | 21.26%
| 0.26% | -08.38%
| 20 | 0.42% |
Mar 2021
| $289.68 | $334.27 | 41 | 15.39%
| 0.38% | -07.80%
| 10 | 0.78% |
Nov 2020
| $259.53 | $329.36 | 72 | 26.90%
| 0.37% | -12.05%
| 14 | 0.86% |
Sep 2020
| $252.86 | $289.17 | 16 | 14.36%
| 0.90% | -10.25%
| 16 | 0.64% |
Mar 2020
| $159.82 | $294.61 | 114 | 84.34%
| 0.74% | -14.17%
| 14 | 1.01% |
Oct 2019
| $175.41 | $229.60 | 95 | 30.89%
| 0.32% | -30.39%
| 07 | 2.36% |
June 2019
| $162.62 | $188.28 | 39 | 15.78%
| 0.41% | -08.36%
| 07 | 1.19% |
Dec 2018
| $137.57 | $183.80 | 87 | 33.60%
| 0.39% | -11.53%
| 23 | 0.50% |
Feb 2018
| $142.76 | $166.61 | 22 | 16.71%
| 0.76% | -12.03%
| 14 | 0.86% |
Feb 2016
| $88.39 | $104.16 | 50 | 17.86%
| 0.36% | -06.32%
| 14 | 0.45% |
Aug 2015
| $78.54 | $107.28 | 51 | 36.59%
| 0.72% | -17.61%
| 54 | 0.33% |
Oct 2014
| $82.95 | $97.66 | 32 | 17.74%
| 0.55% | -05.95%
| 12 | 0.50% |
Feb 2014
| $76.09 | $83.35 | 23 | 9.55%
| 0.42% | -08.63%
| 28 | 0.31% |
June 2012
| $53.35 | $63.01 | 78 | 18.10%
| 0.23% | -13.09%
| 39 | 0.34% |
Dec 2011
| $46.76 | $60.91 | 74 | 26.77%
| 0.36% | -11.38%
| 33 | 0.35% |
Oct 2011
| $44.31 | $52.36 | 18 | 18.18%
| 1.01% | -10.70%
| 21 | 0.51% |
Aug 2011
| $44.08 | $50.73 | 30 | 15.09%
| 0.50% | -12.66%
| 11 | 1.15% |
June 2011
| $47.23 | $52.82 | 28 | 11.83%
| 0.42% | -16.54%
| 11 | 1.51% |
Mar 2011
| $47.30 | $52.27 | 33 | 10.51%
| 0.32% | -09.65%
| 33 | 0.29% |
Nov 2010
| $44.64 | $51.93 | 64 | 16.34%
| 0.26% | -08.93%
| 20 | 0.45% |
| Aug 2010 | $37.64 | $47.44 | 52 | 26.04% | 0.50% | -05.89%
| 06 | 0.98% |
| Feb 2010 | $36.74 | $44.23 | 54 | 20.39% | 0.38% | -17.97%
| 10 | 1.80% |
| Nov 2009 | $35.39 | $40.68 | 53 | 14.95% | 0.28% | -09.69%
| 14 | 1.80% |
| July 2009 | $29.84 | $38.16 | 75 | 27.89% | 0.37% | -07.26%
| 09 | 0.81% |
| May 2009 | $28.64 | $32.35 | 21 | 12.95% | 0.62% | -07.76%
| 19 | 0.81% |
| Mar 2009 | $22.23 | $30.70 | 75 | 38.18% | 0.51% | -06.71%
| 06 | 0.81% |
| Nov 2008 | $21.70 | $27.48 | 54 | 26.64% | 0.49% | -19.11%
| 19 | 0.81% |
| July 2008 | $37.48 | $42.04 | 24 | 12.17% | 0.51% | -18.67%
| 24 | 0.81% |
| Mar 2008 | $35.51 | $43.77 | 56 | 23.26% | 0.42% | -14.37%
| 28 | 0.81% |
| Aug 2007 | $38.33 | $47.58 | 54 | 24.13% | 0.45% | -25.37%
| 93 | 0.81% |
| July 2005 | $32.01 | $37.23 | 59 | 16.31% | 0.28% | -17.84%
| 128 | 0.14% |
| May 2005 | $29.43 | $34.42 | 66 | 16.96% | 0.26% | -07.00%
| 52 | 0.33% |
| Aug 2004 | $27.45 | $34.52 | 99 | 25.76% | 0.26% | -14.75%
| 80 | 0.18% |
| May 2004 | $28.95 | $32.16 | 31 | 11.09% | 0.36% | -14.64%
| 32 | 0.46% |
| Aug 2003 | $25.40 | $33.10 | 114 | 30.31% | 0.27% | -12.81%
| 44 | 0.30% |
| Feb 2003 | $19.79 | $27.79 | 100 | 40.43% | 0.41% | -08.63%
| 20 | 0.43% |
| Oct 2002 | $16.77 | $24.43 | 39 | 45.68% | 1.17% | -19.00%
| 51 | 0.37% |
| Oct 1999 (DOT-COM) | $48.72 | $102.26 | 108 | 110.0% | 1.02% | -40.04%
| 40 | 1.00% |
Wed, March 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM EST
Post Comments, Ask Question & Add Insights
The best thing we can do as a group is for subscribers to post their insights from the data above. There are a lot of potentially valuable things to be learned and highlighted from looking at this data. The more people we have working on it, the better off we all are for it.
Please feel free to add your comments & insights on the correction table here.
Added a comment on your Nasdaq-100 Correction table here.
—
Taking a look at your 30-RSI table, I am not sure I understand the data.
For example, I picked 1 random row from your table with ’30-RSI Date’ 05/12/2022, and it shows:
Price at 30-RSI is $280.00
Price at Low $274.96 (is this ‘Bottom Date’ 05/20/2022?)
And RSI Low-Point is 30.00
Taking a look at Yahoo Finance for historical data, or even TradingView, the price at low shows $280.21 on May 20, 2022 on Yahoo Finance and $280.21 in TradingView (see attached), and the low on May 12 2022 shown in Yahoo Finance is $284.94 and ~$284.93 on TradingView.
Also, I know that you do not use TradingView and you mentioned that in your past posts, so perhaps the RSI indicator in TradingView needs to be adjusted (as you can tell that the RSI never reaches 30 in the screenshot)? Would you be able to provide a screenshot zooming into the 30-RSI line for May 12 2022 to May 20 2022?
I use stockcharts.com. here’s a snapshot of thier historical data. See attachment. Also, as my table is concerned, I don’t go back and edit for dividends and things liek that. it would take too long and there’d be no point as that level of details isn’t really necessary for forecasting purposes. Take a look:
Also, copy & paste your comment on the NASDAQ-100 correction table here as it will preserve it for more than just 1 -day. today’s daily briefing will archive and no one will reference it again.
Here’s what that looks like on the chart. I’m unsure why yahoo and TradingView have different data points. They could have backed out trades or could be displaying pre-divided adjusted data. Not sure.
I appreciate it. I see the same RSI as your StockCharts screenshot on TradingView with RSI 32.19 on May 12 2022.
Purely based on the correction table, I can see why there could be a second leg for the Feb 19, 2025 correction, and why a June 2025 and possibly May 2025 expiration would make sense. I filtered your table (attached image) to answer some exercises…
1. Identify all rallies that lasted 50 days.
◦ Jan 19, 2010
◦ Aug 9, 2010
◦ Nov 9, 2010
◦ Oct 27, 2011
◦ Apr 3, 2012
◦ Mar 7, 2014
◦ Dec 29, 2015
◦ Mar 13, 2018
◦ Oct 1, 2018
◦ Oct 12, 2020
◦ Feb 2, 2023
◦ Mar 21, 2024
2. Determine the SMALLEST rally observed among those 50-day rallies.
◦ Mar 13, 2018 @ 15.91%
3. Count how many rallies exceeded 50 days in duration (51 days and above).
◦ 11
4. Identify specific corrections for rallies that lasted longer than 50 days and analyze those specific corrections.
This gives an average of…
◦ Pct. Loss: -10.817272727273%
◦ Trade Days: 24
◦ Bottom day: Likely a Monday or Friday
◦ Bottom Date: 4 of 11 beginning of month, 4 of 11 mid of month, 3 of 11 end of month, and very slight preference to November and April
◦ Rally % Gain: 22.096363636364%
◦ Legs: 2.0909090909091
5. I noticed that only some requirements were hit with the current correction…
◦ Current Pct. Loss:-13.65%
◦ Current Trade Days: 15
◦ Current Legs: 1
Which means that we most likely have another leg to go on average and this adds to ‘trade days.
So, looking at the sample size for 50 trade days and Pct. Loss less than -10% is too small for me.
Looking at an average of -13.64% Pct. Loss over 10 data points:
Gives an average of…
◦ Pct. Loss: -13.64%
◦ Trade Days: 24.1
◦ Bottom day: Likely a Monday
◦ Bottom Date: 3 of 10 beginning of month, 4 of 10 mid of month, 3 of 10 end of month, and slight preference to September
◦ Rally % Gain: 14.748%
◦ Rally Duration: 39
◦ Legs: 2
Which means that we most likely have another leg to go on average and this adds to ‘trade days.
Conclusion:
Combining these two analysis (4. and 5. above), 2 legs is the norm with Rally % Gain: 14.748% to 22.096363636364% after the correction is done, and an average rally of about 39 days or higher which would put us on a day before May 2025 or June 2025 expiration.
A 14.748% rally gain from the bottom would put us close but below QQQ highs (~536) so 22.096363636364% would be an extra nice gain to go past All Time Highs.
Taking a look at the Daily ‘NASDAQ-100 30-RSI Table’…
Result of 30-RSI
Looking at the column for ‘Trading Sessions’, simply sorting it A-Z, an overwhelming majority take 1 to 2 Trading Session to bottom out completely during their respective correction with a new ‘Price at Low’ after reaching 30-RSI.
Every row in the ‘NASDAQ-100 30-RSI Table’ prior to the Feb 19, 2025 correction has a Bottom-Date and there are 44 total known Bottom-Dates
Where,
◦ 22 (or 50%) of those Bottom-Dates take place the same day that 30-RSI has been reached.
◦ 8 (or 18.2%) of those other Bottom-Dates happen 2 Trading Sessions after 30-RSI has been reached.
◦ 14 (or 31.8%) of those took 3 Trading Sessions or more to bottom out after 30-RSI has been reached.
So, 50% of the time when 30-RSI is triggered, it is a one and done bounce, but 31.8% of the time it is more complex.
Categorizing current 30-RSI and current ‘Price at Low’
Clearly the QQQ for this correction did not bottom out after only 1 or 2 Trading Sessions (which both combined make up 68.2% of all Bottom-Dates so far) because a new ‘Price at Low’ was made the 3rd Trading Day on 03/11/25 after 30-RSI was reached 03/07/25. This does not mean that the new ‘Price at Low’ on 03/11/25 is the actual Bottom-Date for this Feb 19, 2025 correction, and this won’t be known until the correction is actually over.
Looking at Chart A (see attached), we see that for the Rally Duration there are points spread across a tight band between 2 to 13 trading days, and that’s pretty quick. There is also another band more spread out but also occupies a much longer Rally Duration of between 35 to 65 trading days.
When considering the previous analysis where 50-day rallies occurred after the end of a correction, those types of corrections included:
◦ 2 Legs on average
◦ 24 Trade Days of correction on average
So, since the QQQ thus far only experienced 1 Leg and is at 15 Trade Days into the correction, there technically should be a 1 more Leg occurring within the next 9 Trade Days.
So within those 9 Trade Days remaining out of a potential 24 days correction on average, the ‘Rally Duration’ in the short-term when the 30-RSI was triggered would probably be within the smaller band between 2 to 13 trading days before a 2nd Leg occurs, and all this would be before beginning an intermediate rally after the end of the correction. It makes most sense to target 1-5 for ‘Rally Duration’ before the next Leg.
Conclusion
Funny enough, filtering the table for the smaller band in Chart A and a Rally Duration of 1 to 5 reveals the only one other time where the Bottom-Date was also 3 Trading Sessions just like this correction (see Table A). Of course, the Bottom-Date could extend further if a new QQQ low is reached on let’s say another leg.
So, if the ‘Ensuing Rally’ were used from that other time the Bottom-Day was also 3 Trading Sessions, the QQQ could go from it’s current Low (~467.01) up 8.87%, which is ~508.43. This is somewhat close to the 50% retracement between previous high and current low (~503.91) with ~1% difference. However, that doesn’t mean that the QQQ can’t instead simply end at or before 500 – 505.
YES! Thank for stickying this Sam. I have been having to sift back through the courses and posts to reference this often, so love seeing it here.
Sam,
First off, thanks for taking the time to build this table and it looks very clean and clear on the computer!!!
I am currently comparing this correction with the one started July/10/2024 to Augst/5/2024. I thought this current correction is worse than last year; however, by looking at the data, it is not. Can I jump to the conclusion that this one has a little more to go until bottoming out? With FOMC meeting next week, maybe the market is waiting for what will come out from Powell on rate cut? Comments?
Not necessarily. It’s just unclear at the moment. we’ve seen v-shaped recoveries. What we do know is that this one likely has a substantially larger rebound before it continues lower. That’s because the August correction happened faster. we’ve now gone down 17 straight days without a rebound. The July – August correction took 18-days total to go from peak to bottom. Rebounds and everything. So this one is taking a little longer. Not as big points and percentage wise, but longer and without any rebounds. It’s all one leg.
So it’s hard to say at the moment. we’ve seen corrections like this be 1-legged and then we end up just straight back to the highs. other times like in August, we had a rally that went almost back to the highs before going into another correction in September. we could see that scenario play out as well.
Like the QQQ can easily rally to $525, peak and then fall back to these lows in a second sell-off a month or so later.
understood. Thank you for the insight.
During this February 2025 correction, the QQQ was oversold on the weekly like Sam mentioned in the Daily Briefings.
Looking at previous times the QQQ was oversold on the weekly:
03/21/25 28.70
05/16/22 28.70
03/09/20 30.50
10/06/08 20.20
07/06/06 28.15
09/23/02 28.20
Charting 30 trade days before and after those dates above for the % change for the closing price on the QQQ gives the following charts in the attached image.
Chart 1.1 shows all the % change for all the oversold dates mentioned previously.
Chart 1.2 and 1.3 shows the trends I think match 03/21/25 the closest just by eye.
Just quick observations in the charts between:
03/21/25 and 07/06/06
03/21/25 and 03/09/20
The trend for 03/21/25 and 07/06/06 are more aligned, showing uncertainty and trade day 0 acting as a resistance point.
The trend for 03/21/25 and 03/09/20 are less aligned prior to trade day 0, however they do also show uncertainty where trade day 0 acts as a resistance point, and eventually after trade day 20 the QQQ breaks through.
Like Sam mentions “the QQQ isn’t going to trade sideways for 10 more days. It’s going to make a definitive move one way or the other soon”.
We are already about 16 trade days after the QQQ reached oversold on the weekly, and looking at 15-16 trade days in Chart 1.1, the general trend looks to be that the QQQ has made a definitive move one way or the other around or after 15 trade days.
Update to chart from trade 0 when the weekly was overbought.
Weekly Overbought 30-RSI (trade day 0)
◦ Mon, March 31, 2025 | RSI 28.70
◦ Mon, May 16, 2022 | RSI 28.70
◦ Mon, March 9, 2020 | RSI 30.50
◦ Mon, October 6, 2008 | RSI 20.20
◦ Mon, July 17, 2006 | RSI 28.15
◦ Mon, September 23, 2002 | RSI 28.20
The move to the upside looks good. The line for 2006 still decently matches up to the 2025 line. However, the takeaway is moreso that the line for 2025 looks more inline with a continuation towards a bullish rally over more trade days ahead like other similar events in Graph 2.1.
While Graph 2.2 show similarities between March 2025 and possibly more downside in the future, the 2025 line looks way more defined and stable and much likelier to head towards making higher highs as shown with other previous events in Graph 2.1.
Graph 2.1 shows:
◦ Starts at a lower % change 30 trade days before RSI is overbought on the weekly, though this seems like a coincidence since each line is otherwise not uniform.
◦ Positive momentum breaking above day 0 after around 10 trade days.
◦ Stronger correlation between other timeframes when RSI was overbought on the weekly within trade 15 days of trade day 0.
◦ When analyzing sections of 5 to 10 trading days in length, the market tends to form lower lows relative to trade day 0, with the magnitude of these lows diminishing over time.
◦ By trade day 13, in these instances, the QQQ typically concludes its corrective phase, often establishing a trough and demonstrating increased confidence in a recovery trajectory.
Graph 2.2 shows:
◦ A more uniform decline beginning from 30 trade days before the QQQ is overbought on the weekly.
◦ Chaotic trajectory and no discernible similarities between other lines or direction after the QQQ was overbought on the weekly. The direction more defined on the longer term at around 20 trade days.
◦ Lower lows found within 20 trade days of the QQQ reaching overbought on the weekly
Adding a simplified timeline of the February 2025 correction for the QQQ (see attachment) based on:
◦ Sam’s articles
◦ Baratheon and Arryn trades
◦ External public data for QQQ value, QQQ hourly RSI, VIX Value, NYMO.
The simplified correction timeline is meant to briefly and visually demonstrate:
◦ Some highlights and future market outlooks from Sam’s Articles along the correction.
◦ Portfolio action for some short-term and long-term (Baratheon and Arryn here).
◦ The type of analysis to expect during some parts of a correction.
◦ Some QQQ, RSI, VIX, and NYMO intraday values.
Link to Sam’s articles based on timeline dates:
◦ 02/18
◦ 02/27
◦ 03/11
◦ 03/13
◦ 03/25
◦ 03/31
◦ 04/07
◦ 04/09
◦ 04/14
◦ 04/21
◦ 04/23
◦ 04/29
◦ 05/02
Also, you might have to save the image of the simplified timeline to see its actual size because long images are shrunken down in the Comments section.
tl;dr
◦ Attached two graphs to visualize Sam’s datapoints from his ‘Table 3.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Segmented Rally’.
◦ The June 2025 segmented rally behaves like the last/middle segmented rally of an intermediate rally.
◦ Segmented rallies seem to exhibit a logarithmic function (see attached Graph 3.1). Smaller ‘Rally days’ means faster Rally %, and longer ‘Rally Days’ means that Rally % gains are slower.
◦ There are on average 0 or 1 more segmented rally for the intermediate rally that began in April 2025 (attached Graph 3.0 shows datapoints converging to a particular range of a typical middle/end segmented rally).
◦ The last segmented rally for the intermediate rally that began in April 2025 statistically could either be June 2025 or July 2025.
For table Table 3.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Segmented Rally Cycle
Existing datapoints
Number of given datapoints between January 2023 and June 2025:
29
Complete Rally % range is between:
4.50% to 15.13%
(See attached Graph 3.0 which visualizes Sam’s Table 3.0)
Datapoints point to the end cycle for the June 2025 segmented rally, so there probably is not much left in the tank here and there will either be barely any more Rally % if the segmented rally continues, or the June 2025 segmented rally ends.
Using Sam’s Table 1.0 and Table 3.0 to label segmented rallies
Separating Sam’s datapoints into three groups
(See attached Graph 3.1 which separates Sam’s Table 3.0 into groups)
Looking at Sam’s Table 3.0, I don’t think it would make sense to look at an intermediate rally and apply the average of all segmented rallies from Table 3.0 to estimate the segmented rally duration or segmented rally % at any point in an intermediate rally. This is because looking at the attached Graph 3.1 which separates Graph 3.0 into groups, each segmented rally behave in a logarithmic function.
The segmented rally that begins after the end of a correction (labeled as ‘Start’) has a stronger Rally % over time most likely due to traders following key technicals to mark the bottom of a correction and make use of their available capital.
While segmented rallies that occur after the start and end of an intermediate rally (labeled as ‘Middle’) of an intermediate rally have a stronger Rally % over a smaller number of ‘Rally Days”, they seem to perform similarly to the segmented rallies at the end of an intermediate rally as more ‘Rally Days’ pass by (timing the top poses some difficulty due to the similarity between segmented rallies as time passes by).
Graph 3.1 cross references Sam’s ‘Table 1.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Correction Table’ to determine the start and end to corrections, and to put Sam’s Table 3.0 into groups to determine the start, middle, and end to a segmented rally…
(See attached Table 3.1 separated into groups below)
Since the trend lines are logarithmic for each group of datapoints (datapoints for start, middle, and end of segmented rally), I do not think that it would make sense compare the June 2025 segmented rally to the “Average” segmented rally for middle and end of intermediate rallies because as the number of rally days extends, the points fluctuate less and converge towards the same area (i.e. “Average” table values are not that great for logarithmic trends).
There are between 1 and 2 middle segmented rallies per intermediate rally
Prior to the start of this intermediate rally which began in April 2025, when tabulating the groups of segmented rally datapoints shown in the attached Table 3.1, there are 7 ‘Start’ segmented rallies, 7 ‘End’ segmented rallies, and 11 ‘Middle’ segmented rallies.
Every start of a rally has an end (7 and 7 as noted right above). Looking at how many segmented rallies there are in between a start and end gives us the average number of middle segmented rallies: 1.57
Taking that into consideration, the intermediate rally starting in April 2025 so far only has 2 middle segmented rally (May 2025 and June 2025). Seeing as how the average number of middle segmented rallies is 1.57, it ever so slightly points to how there should be a second middle segmented rally since 1.57 is closer to 2.00. So if there is another segmented rally in July 2025, it should be the ‘End’ segmented rally.
On average, the June 2025 segmented rally shows that it is nearing the end of a segmented rally, and also closer to the end of an intermediate rally
The number of trade days remaining this year indicates closer to 2 remaining corrections. Looking at ‘Table 1.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Correction Table’, there are 3 corrections for both the average and median every year between 2007 and 2024. ‘However, considering that Table 3.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Segmented Rally Cycle’ does not account for years past 2023. So if we consider the prior few instead for Table 1.0, there have been 4 corrections on average and median.
As of close of trading day June 27 2025, there are around 129 trading days left. Looking at ‘‘Table 1.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Correction Table’’, on average a correction lasts 20.27 trade days, and an ensuing rally duration lasts 35.73 trade days. This is ~55 trade days combined on average to complete a correction and end an intermediate rally, which gives us about 2 more corrections if this current rally ends, but the number of of corrections + ensuing rally days would need to be slightly higher than 55 trade days to reach the 129 trade days left. This gives us a total estimate of 3 corrections.
Rarely are these corrections and rally duration evenly sized, and looking at ‘Table 1.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Correction Table’, the first corrections and last corrections of the year tend to have the most ‘Rally Duration’. So it is possible there could be 4 corrections this year just like the average number of corrections within the last few years instead of 3. The number of trade days for upcoming corrections and ensuing Rally Duration would need to be smaller than 55 trade days combined however considering we already spent ~91 trade days in a correction and ‘Rally Duration’ combined.
Average Rally % after a correction is 1.5 times the ‘Pct. Loss’
When looking at ‘Table 1.0 NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) Correction Table’, calculating the average gain between ‘Pct. Loss’ and ensuing ‘Rally %’, we get a multiplier of 1.5. So this means that on average, we can get estimated ‘Rally %’ by multiplying ‘Pct. Loss’ by 1.5.
So, for the current intermediate rally of 36.84% that began after the end of February 2025 correction with -25.49% ‘Pct. Loss’, the rally has already reached a multiplier of 1.45, which is very close to the average of 1.5 already.