Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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Do you think TSLA is going to make it a bull rally after all this hate going around? or should we start looking into exit strategy?
Same question !
Potential is huge but speculation… Not like NVIDIA
no answer to this?
Hey Sam,
Do you consider the triangle to be ascending even if the top is not flat?
Place your bets!
It’s totally flat. Like the QQQ has now visited the $485 level three times in the past week. It doesn’t have to be perfect. Just close enough. And in this case, we’re way close enough.
Thanks. Was wondering how specific the indicator needs to be.
not sure about the rest of the community but the time dilation is working both ways for me (correction and rebound)…thank god it’s almost Friday though
Hi Sam!
First Off:
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience with us… even though my portfolio isn’t as green as I was hoping it would be right now, I’m confident that I’d be significantly in the red had I not subscribed to you 2 months ago.
Secondly:
What (if any) impact do you expect the Death Cross alarm bells to have on the May NVDA Call Spreads open in our hypothetical portfolios?
The Death Cross is entirely meaningless. Don’t worry about that at all. It’s a lagging indicator. It’s probably the least impactful indicator that I know of.
The reason it’s meaningless is becuase it’s not going to be BECAUSE of the death cross that we trend lower. If Nvidia trends lower, it will be because we’re in a bear market.
Don’t know how else to really put it. I would say the death cross is just a description of the past market environment. It doesn’t say anything meaningful at all about the future.
For example, suppose this ends up being a normal correction. The market and Nvidia rallies. No death cross.
alternatively, suppose we enter a bear market in the stock market. Nviida ends up trending lower. Way lower.
Death cross happens. The market bottoms and then nvidia rallies. A golden or bullish cross happens.
We’re not falling due to the death cross and alternatively, the market bottoming and then rallying cause the 200 day to go back above 50-day in bullish cross over isn’t the reason for why we’re rallying.
People having associated the Death Cross with lower markets because the only occur in lower markets…
Hey Sam, can we get a NVDA update please?
So Nvidia is basically tracking the market. Whatever the market does right now, Nviida will do but bigger. Nvidia clearly wants to move higher. It’s telling us that by outperforming on a near daily basis now.
Once the market starts to rally, Nvidia will go right back up to $130+.
When we update on the QQQ, we’re essentially giving an update on all stocks including Nvidia. The only time we really see NVDA diverge from the market is in a low volatility envrionment or when the market is trending higher. There we might see Nvidia pull back sharply and then rebound sharply and ping-pong between overbought and oversold. Other times, Nvidia might be on a big breakout run as the market trends consistently higher.
But in this environment, it is 100% dependent on what the QQQ is doing. if the QQQ rallies, Nvidia rallies. If the QQQ pulls back sharply, Nvidia is likely to come with it.
Right now, we’re sort of in wait mode. We’re waiting to see if the QQQ can push past that $485 level as that paves a clear path to $500.
The Death Cross is a major lagging indicator. It doesn’t mean anything at all. It tells people that the stock has trended down. By the time it happens, the market is ready to move higher.
Especially for a stock like Nvidia. It’s double meaningless because we already know the fundamentals are strong.
This is kinda a butt kicking watching and planning/hoping… It seems to never end. Is it ever easy? Of all the people on TV trying to figure it all out, I think you have proved wiser than-they-all so far. Thank you.
Great insights, though based on what I understand with my super limited knowledge of technicals,
I feel market is not done going lower yet. Everytime it tries to push up, bears take control and push it down.
Right now the 475-480 seems to the battle ground, But based on the RSI on weekly, I think there is more downside upto 450-55 before the upcycle starts
Sam, is there a risk that the sideway action this week is enough of a pause that the market can resume lower and go through the lows set last week? Similar to how in the August 2024 correction, we had about a week of sideway actions before going lower. I’ve highlighted the comparison in blue in the picture attached.
In the July-August correction, QQQ had fallen from $505 to $452 in the area that you highlighted. The rebound brought it up to $475 (roughly 50% retracement) before it came down for a second leg that bottomed on August 5th there.
I believe what Sam has said in the past few briefings, is that this correction can be 2 legged as well, but it will likely retrace about 50% as well before we can discern IF it will come down again. In this correction, a 50% retracement would bring QQQ back up to $503~ and that’s what we’re waiting/looking for now.
Here’s a little hopium. Check out the MACD. Now compare to previous similar instances.
So normally, yes. That is a risk and eve a risk now. However, what makes this move different is the size and scope of the sell-off. What you have to realize is that what causes the selling and downward pressure is a supply of shares. With the selling that has already taken place, that supply has likely largely dwindled. When the market drops only $45 like it did in July, there’s a ton of room to the downside at that point and you end up with a two-legged sell-off. And there in July, we had a pretty serious rebound first.
There is a risk of what you see in August playing out here for sure. Anytime the market consoliates, that risk is there. But I think we are far less likely to see a break to the downside given all of the indicators — 30-RSI trigger, 14% down etc.
in fact, we’ve had a large number of similar set-ups we’re seeing right now at key market bottoms. we’ve seen consolation bottoms in a good 30-40% of corrections going back 5-years. I’ll outline some of those today.
Meaning, we’ve seen this precise action we’re seeing now at lows. The lows don’t always happen with a violent bullish hammer. They often can occur just as we’re seeing it play out right now. 5-8 sessions of consolidation with the market swinging up/down in a 20-point range.
Does today’s open below the ascending triangle’s bottom invalidate that pattern?
Thank you for your guidance during this tumultuous time.
It’s getting pretty difficult not to fall into the “this time is different” mentality regarding this correction and this weeks price action