Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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Friday’s content was very good! I was looking at post consolidations with my own tables too, and it’s really nice to have some extra content and dialogue from you. Also, recurring data like what you have already posted (i.e. corrections, consolidations, patterns, etc.) you could probably add it to your shortened table if you haven’t already in your complete table. Sell-off or rallies to a consolidation seem to happen often.
1. Previously you’ve posted images of gaps in your daily briefings. I was wondering if you have a saved layout for all of them in the QQQ? I was wanting to tabulate the frequency of gap bounces, gap fills, point distance, length, etc.
2. It is very obvious 500 is going to be reached, however, with almost a 6 point gap (~481.65 to ~487.35) in the QQQ, would it make sense to say that if this gap goes unfilled/filled for now, a 3%-4% pullback would occur between ~502-~508 because of the gap created and how the QQQ is looking to break through 70?
Since gaps tend to be filled at some point, I don’t think it would make sense for this one to be filled in a future normal correction if the QQQ reaches 600 (~19% from 600 to 481). If this gap does get filled (along with the hourly gap on March 14 2025), it would go past 3%-4% which seems to indicate potentially a leg lower like in your graph ‘QQQ: Oversold Rally Day 8’.
It really depends on implied volatility at the time and the general sentiment. What option calculators don’t capture is sentiment. It really depends on how aggressive the move is.
For example, if the QQQ closes out today’s session at $490 exactly and then gaps up $8.00 tomorrow and runs to $502, that is likely to see a more aggressive price move than if the QQQ took 3 days to get there on $2-3 moves to the upside.
If the sentiment starts to turn really positive, that could cause option prices to surge. So just using a slightly higher IV to represent a shift in sentiment.
“with runaway gaps we do need to see some volume come in”
When looking at volume, how do you determine if it’s a significant amount? I’m assuming it’s comparing to previous volume for a certain timeframe, or do you use a particular technical indicator other than volume bars?
You want to look at volume compared to the recent trading sessions.
Volume on the QQQ’s today was the lowest since Feb. 26. Does that hurt our chances of today being a breakaway gap, and increases the chance of backtesting the lows?
Shall we sell Tesla today, or wait until it reaches 300?
Baratheon & Targaryen portfolios are waiting for now.
hourly rsi is at 90?! are we getting out on expectation of a pullback?
sorry I can’t delete this comment,
Looks like the hourly RSI is hitting 70, do we have a firm target to sell at 80 with the idea of repurchase when it drops below 50 on the hourly RSI for QQQ?
Say we had an entry at the perfect bottom which was 468 on QQQ for the call spread, how would one go about with the process of selling them and buying a strangle? Could you demonstrate with the example of what we would do at 500 or 505 etc where we expect the peak?
All we can really do is trade what’s in our model portfolios. We’re limited what we can say outside of that. As Baratheon and Targaryen are concerned, we’re watching the market closely and our tension is to close out our QQQ positions somewhere around the $498-$505 zone. After that, we might buy a strangle.
A strangle is just a strategy term that means owning both call-spreads and put-spreads at the same time. I’m not yet sure which call-spreads and put-spreads we will buy as we’re quite trading at the target level yet. Probably June or July spreads.
Since the RSI is already at 71 on the hourly. Do you think it’ll make it to 495 or 500 level before the next leg lower?
The RSI is still at 68 atm. Also, as mention in the final update of the day, the RSI reaching 70-80 often simply precedes more upside near-term.
Sounds good. After the next leg down, is your perspective that we’ll start floating back above 500 again or will there be continued downside with many snapback rallies?
Oh and is your forecast for Nvidia still $170 by end of Q2?
what the heck is wrong with NVDA it couldn’t climb past 122, it tested it like 10 times, and then NVDA sold off towards 121 even with nasdaq skyrocketing. wtf?
there are a bunch of stupid sellers