Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
Please login to view this page.
Sam, if I recall correctly most pullbacks last 8 days? Does that mean if this action goes on longer than 8 sessions that it’s likely a 3rd leg?
Is there anything to watch for today that will skew the outlook on whether it’s a pullback or a full leg?
There’s no hard and fast rule on the number of days. But it’s important to realize that if after 8-9 days we haven’t moved much to the downside, then how big of a leg can it really be?
If you look at the previous two legs, there was no indecision on the market’s part. we went straight down. Leg 1 went straight down. Leg 2 had a handful of sessions where it traded higher in the middle of the sell-off. Then it was straight down after that.
Now compare to the current environment. What do we have on this leg so far? To begin with, the QQQ as of this very moment, has been green in 5 out of the last 7 days. We’ve only had 2 down days. Yesterday and last Thursday. That’s it.
With the QQQ at $445, it’s nothing at the moment. We can’t really call it a leg down. We’d need to see the QQQ fall into the low $430’s and then continue lower tomorrow and next Monday.
For now, it just looks like a standard pull-back after a sharp move higher off of the lows.
—-
In terms of what can skew the outlook today…if the market closes substantially higher such that the QQQ pushes above $450 and closes there, it makes this sell-off look really weak. Alternatively, if the QQQ rolls over and closes at $437 or something, then it starts to look like a weak 3rd leg down where the market pushes down but falls short of the lows.
Thanks Sam! What impact positive or negative do monthlies expiring today have?
here we go opening in the 430s
Got my pom poms and cheering for the “weak leg” that doesn’t go below lows.
Hello Sam, Could you elaborate on your analysis of NVIDIA? I understood that he wasn’t sure he’d see NVIDIA below $100. The current situation seems strange and atypical with this oscillation at NVIDIA. Also, does seeing the CEO being used as a trade diplomat in Beijing while having dinner with Trump some time ago bode well? Normally, NVIDIA systematically sees an increase a month before its quarterly results. But that’s not the case yet? Indeed, the average entry point between $96 and $100 was great, but it’s clear that we can still top up, or is there still a risk of seeing NVIDIA fall below $96? It’s still incredible given the earnings… Hoping that TSMC’s quarterly results today reassure the market and are excellent. Can you also analyze Tesla? Thanks. Karl
Sam ?
Here is the English translation of TSMC’s Q1 2025 earnings summary:
TSMC – Q1 2025 Earnings Summary (Ended March 31, 2025)
Revenue: NT$839.25 billion (USD $25.53 billion)
+41.6% year-over-year, -3.4% quarter-over-quarter
Net Income: NT$361.56 billion (+60.3% YoY)
Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$13.94 (~USD $2.12 per ADR)
Gross Margin: 58.8%
Operating Margin: 48.5%
Net Profit Margin: 43.1%
Technology Breakdown – Wafer Revenue
3nm: 22%
5nm: 36%
7nm: 15%
→ Advanced technologies (7nm and below): 73% of total wafer revenue
—
Executive Commentary
> “Our Q1 business was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI-related demand,”
said Wendell Huang, CFO of TSMC.
—
Outlook for Q2 2025
TSMC anticipates strong demand for its leading-edge 3nm and 5nm technologies in Q2, with the following guidance:
Revenue: USD $28.4 billion – $29.2 billion
Gross Margin: 57% – 59%
Operating Margin: 47% – 49%
Exchange rate assumption: 1 USD = 32.5 NT$
—
TSMC Q1 2025 – Key NVIDIA Implications
1. TSMC’s Advanced Node Revenue Surge
73% of wafer revenue came from 7nm and below.
3nm + 5nm = 58%, directly linked to AI accelerator production (e.g., NVIDIA H100, H200, upcoming B100).
> Conclusion: Massive volume in cutting-edge nodes = direct proxy for NVIDIA’s GPU manufacturing pipeline.
—
2. Clear AI-Driven Momentum
TSMC explicitly states:
> “Q1 was impacted by smartphone seasonality, partially offset by continued growth in AI-related demand.”
This confirms that NVIDIA’s demand for wafers remains strong, despite seasonal headwinds in other verticals (e.g., Apple, Qualcomm).
—
3. Q2 Revenue Acceleration at TSMC
TSMC guides Q2 revenue to $28.4–29.2B, a +13–15% QoQ increase.
Margins remain extremely high:
Gross margin: 57–59%
Operating margin: 47–49%
> This implies large, sustained orders from top AI clients, especially NVIDIA — likely tied to Blackwell (B100) ramp-up.
—
Implications for NVIDIA
Investor Takeaway
TSMC’s results validate strong ongoing AI GPU production.
NVIDIA is likely to beat Q1 expectations and raise Q2 guidance, driven by:
Unabated H100/H200 demand
Blackwell ramp (early volumes already visible at TSMC)
Strong pricing and margin retention
Indecisive closing at $444
Any chance to see 2022 ?
we’re going downtownn
Nvidia down to $95! So much for never seeing it under $200 again.
and sub-100 🙂