Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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Can you give an update on Tesla?
Tesla isn’t exactly the same boat. It hasn’t shifted. It is also extremely overbought and historically they’ve seen selloffs of 30-40 points.
Tesla is far more volatile than Nvidia. Nothing has changed with Tesla over the last few days.
Interesting last line, are you suggesting NVDA could drop 20pts?
Are you still expecting it to hit ATH *BEFORE* earnings?
ATH back to ~153 is inevitable in the next month or so, even if bad earnings?
It definitely could. You’ve seen the historical data, right. I’m looking at the same data you’re looking at. Like I don’t drive this conclusion from any extra data points beyond what we see in the chart.
Historically, speaking, we’ve seen a lot of 20 point drops in Nvidia when it becomes deeply overbought.
What’s more a 20 point drop might not even be that much. For example, supposed Nvidia runs to 140 early next week. It could easily drop 20 points to test 120 bottom and then rally right back to 140 as it heads into earning.
Ahead of the crash in February we saw that happen a number of times. It was a frequent occurrence.
So sure we can see something like that here. I think more likely is that if Nvidia tops here at 136 it’s likely to pull back to 123. That would be a 13 point pull back.
That’s in line with what we’ve seen historically. Hell that’s in line with the small end of the range historically
How confident are you in NVDA going to ATH short term? QQQ for that matter they’re all going together.
What could derail it? Is there risk of correction right here? I know it would be pretty close to last one
I’m not that confident it’s gonna go to all-time highs in the near-term. I think it has the capacity to get there in a week or two. There’s a tendency for stocks and the market to go back to its all-time highs sooner than people think. So the capacity to that is definitely there.
However, in terms of what we’re expecting, next few weeks to next month Earnings has to come in at least passable. If nothing negative comes out on earnings then that’s the path that’s headed on.
The default right now is the market and Nvidia are both on an all-time high trajectory. We may see a pullback before that happens, but we’re on that trajectory.
As long as earnings aren’t in any way negative then the trajectory is all-time highs.
For the NASDAQ 100 I don’t think anything is gonna derail that. Short of Trump conspiring to do things against the market’s will, we’re going to all-time highs.
The market doesn’t just run up to 520 like this for the hell of it.
The moment the QQQ broke out above 500 it told us that it was going to all-time high
For Nvidia that line in the sand was 130
123 was the major breakout point but the moment it went above 130, that’s the market telling us. It wants to go back to all-time high.
Near term a pull back is due, but after that all-time high
The stock could easily go up or down $10.00-$15.00 when they report earnings on May 28th. I’m actually a little bit nervous about the earnings because one of the best NVDA analysts (UBS), who is rated 5 star, based on the accuracy of his past earnings calls, just lowered his estimates well below the street. But most of the other 5 star analysts are above the street. So it’s a tough call.
And the IO Fund who follows Nvidia supply chains is leaning towards another Blackwell delay.
Sam you haven’t posted on them in a while, just curious what your thoughts are on Palantir and AVGO? Figure a pullback for them similar to NVDA….
With all of the rallying that’s been going on, I have to wonder if there are any good buy opportunities at the moment. Perhaps a great time to pool up some cash?
Sam’s strategy strictly recommends buying during a correction. That window has flown since early April, so we’re just on standby until the next correction.
With the parabolic rally, the risk of an early correction is too high to buy. I’m personally sticking to the strategy as the market’s too hot and spciy right now.
Well, it depends on what you mean by pooling cash. So if we weren’t long already, we wouldn’t be buying up here as there’s too much risk given the overall size of the move.
But we also aren’t selling anything up here either. As you can see all of our long-term portfolios, we are full long and hedged.
Hi Sam, thank you for keep us updated. Just a follow up with yesterday question, why is it that you are confident (with a high probability) that the QQQ not going to a bear market (260$) ? Also, what is negative divergence again ?
I want to learn how you can keep a cool head in such volatile environment.
Sam the United States just got their credit downgraded for the first time in history. I’m not sure if that will hurt the stock market. I’m curious if you have any thoughts about it? Thanks
didn’t it get downgraded in 2011 and 2023?
could the downgrade be the catalyst for the pullback?
QQQ and SPY are getting killed in extended hours. QQQ is down $6.88. I guess the reason is because: “The US was stripped of its last top credit rating by Moody’s Ratings, reflecting deepening concern that ballooning debt and deficits will damage America’s standing as the preeminent destination for global capital.” Maybe this will be the impetus for us to finally get the pullback to $503 on QQQ. It closed at $521.51 today in the regular session, but closed extended hours at $514.63. Sam, Do you think this could be the trigger that finally gives us a pullback to the $503 range?
Well, this is funny. Sam always says the market shows its move, then the news is attributed to it. Seems like the case here as well, the market as Sam stated was set to have a pullback all week. Then on Friday (yesterday) this news broke, which will now be the news attributed to the pullback, however as Sam said, the market was going to do it anyway. Whether it was this news, some other news, or some manufactured news so that there was something to point to.
Exactly, Sam Weiss, conqueror of market technical lol. I quit my belief in market news after going through the analysis with Sam.
Indeed, the decline has begun in pre-market trading. The rating agency Moody’s downgraded its US debt rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, 2025. A catalyst for the markets? Is it possible to update NVIDIA’s downside targets? The downside range is still $12, or rather $22.
Sam
2.44% down in pre-opening trading. Does this change the analysis?
Best
Karl
Nothing has changed. Read the last few days of analysis.
Thanks Sam.
Given the news and the momentum of the rally, are you still predicting a pullback to $12-13, or rather $20? I understand from the analysis that a rebound just before the May 28th release, reaching $150 by early June, is likely?
read the analisis. Cheers