Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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I think your 10:00 post didn’t register. Only now do I see this thread on the daily briefing.
I think 10:00 might maybe be the default time for a post. The QQQ chart shows 1:24 pm
Frankfurter is right. It’s a default time. I have to manually change it and forgot to do so.
Where do you think NVDA will be when it hits 30 RSI? Based on my definitely scientific analysis (drawing lines in Paint.net) it looks like maybe around 129, but also I know RSI to stock price isn’t necessarily correlated (just look at earlier this month where the RSI dropped but the stock price stayed in the same area)
Whenever we look at RSI, I think we should look at hourly-RSI, daily-RSI, or sometimes weekly-RSI and also QQQ RSI, or whole market RSI
They all have different impacts on different time-frames. Daily RSI is more intermediate-term in nature. Overbought daily could mean we’re in the final third of the rally from a duration point of view. If you look at past rallies, one the QQQ reaches overbought on the daily, it often means we’re either exactly half-way through (duration) or in the final third (duration) of the rally. Meaning, the number of sessions from trough to peak is either at the 50% mark or the 67% mark. Often 67%. So for example, in this case ti would suggest the rally goes to 50-60 sessions total before we peak. That’s 2-4 more weeks before the market tops.
Hourly, has an immediate near-term impact. Weekly tells us if the market is gearing to shift trends for 6-10 weeks. That’s why we looked at the weekly RSI near the lows of hte correction because the weekly reached oversold. Historically that has lead to 6-10 week long rallies. So far we’re on week 9.
Well this is no longer in play as the market continues to swing up/down around the $520 level. It is now a do or die scenario for the QQQ at $520. This will impact Nvidia.
Nvidia is nearing its highs for the rally. Earnings couldn’t push it through the low $140’s. We’re soon due for an oversold sell-off for everything.
We just have to wait until it happens. And when it does, it’ll make for a solid trade.
Sam, What would you say the odds are right now that we will blow through resistance and make a new high, rather than have a 3-5% pullback?
Hard to say. This entire area has been very uncertain. The market has now spent 3-weeks in the same trading range. That’s a long time. I do think regardless of what things play out, the market is very unlikely to go much higher than $540 before sustaining a correction. We’re at the very high end of the range for the rally and if we get up to $540 we’re going to buy new puts for our long-term portfolios. The $520 area is becoming more and more uncertain. Every time the market pulls back, finds buyers and pushes up to $520, it makes it more uncertain.
That’s because both sides are losing. The QQQ can’t seem to push past $520 and doesn’t seem to want to pull-back either. The longer that goes on, the more of a dice roll breakout/breakdown occur.
So what I’ve learned long ago is to simply have a plan of attack based on both outcomes. And that we do.
IF QQQ breaks out to $540, we add to our put position (hedges). If the QQQ breaks down toward a 3-5% pull-back, we go long in our trading portfolios.
But at $520, it’s uncertain.
Hello, Is the likely bond market crisis a strong catalyst for a sharp correction before September-October, like the August 2024 episode with the yen?
Jamie Dimon and other analysts are talking about it, and we’re already starting to see it accelerate in the US and Japan.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/jamie-dimon-says-crack-in-the-bond-market-is-going-to-happen
Best
Karl
Sam ?
I’ve been watching that closely and the market doesn’t seem to care one iota about higher rates atm. Eventually either rates come down or we will sustain a correction. But at the moment, it has no impact. This is the most explosive rally we’ve ever seen in 15-years. No rally has extended to 40-sessions at the current average daily return.
This rally is currently even more explosive the covid rally. Just nowhere near as long. Meaning, people don’t care.
There will be a correction and it will be for any number of different reasons.
Hello Sam
The market seems to have put on rose-colored glasses; it’s becoming worrying, and the overheating is a cause for concern… I think your hypothesis of a QQQ correction to the $400 area is likely and should happen before September if this explosive rally continues like this… It’s as if there’s no longer a pilot in the QQQ and NVIDIA plane ????
Best
Karl
So I don’t think we’ll see anything like that (Drop to $400). We’ll hedge out the risk because we always have to be hedging out risk.
But right now, our default expectation is regular correction 10-14%. It could be a little larger 12-14% due to the size of the rally off the lows.
But I don’t think we go back down to $400. At least that’s not our expectation. Our expectation is regular correction.
We hedge for unlimited downside protection. So if the market does crash, we’re protected. Default expectation is always correction > rally > correction > rally. Hedge the risk of a crash.
Realistically, the market probably corrects to fill the $487 gap at some point. So maybe $540 to $487 or $560 to $487. That’s our expectation righ tnow.
So a bottom probably somewhere near $480-$487.
If things get really heated, maybe it gets to a low $450 depending on where it topped out. If it gets to all-time highs $540 down to $450 is a 16% correct. That’s a big correction. We don’t expect that to happen, but it could happen and we prepare for it.
But more than likely, we’ll see a regular correction followed by a rally up to all-time highs.
When I look at the flows and behavior of certain stocks like Ionq, Oklo, and NVIDIA, I see a situation similar to the euphoria of early February 2025 and then the big drop from February 10th to March 15th. There was the same turmoil back then too… What do you think? Is it possible to find the RSI metrics, oversold, etc., or is that not necessary to derive conjectures and constants?
Asia is opening much lower.