Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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Hi Sam,
How does our analysis waver / change considering the current segment we’re on is 10 days (5 bars) in and we’re only up 3.46% (assuming May 23rd was the beginning of the current segment)? Similar to how we use an expectation of 10-30% over 70-100 day duration for intermediate term rallies, can we adopt a similar mindset here with segmented rallies (e.g. 8-10% over 12-21 days)? And to what confidence levels can we lean on this for segmented rallies to establish bounding boxes around size and duration?
Thanks!
So I don’t use the segmented rally analysis as a way to forecast upside — though it could be used in that way. Instead, I sort of use it as a basis for expecting a near-term pull-back.
The reason we don’t use it in near-term forecasting is that we get we have right now. The QQQ is trading sideways essentially. So this segment is already sort of messed up in a way.
The market doesn’t always unfold in segments — though many rallies do. We’ll get a nice clear-cut 6-10% move up, a 2-4% pull-back followed by another clear-cut move up. This will often happen over well defined durations. The last two big rallies unfolded in that exact manner — the rally between Sep 2024 and Jan 2025 and the rally between Mar 2024 and July 2024. Both of those rallies had clear-cut segmented. As did many of the others before it.
But sometimes we get what we have right now which is a prolonged consolidation. It’s unclear how this will end up playing out.
It may break to the upside and all of this just gets added to the segment. Once it reaches +8 to +10% we can expect another pull-back. Or this could all be one big topping process. It’s not yet clear how this will end up playing out.
Hey Sam, do you mean it could basically reset here and rally another “segment” without a pullback?
Hi Sam,
This is unrelated to today’s post but I’m wondering whether the model portfolios are real money or just paper traded? If it’s real money are you personally invested in them? Just thought that this should be disclosed for conflict of interest purposes.
Hi Jason — yeah these are all models. They’re not backed by real capital. Though I’m invested in the QQQ as I noted on April 7 when I went long.
My QQQ position is very similar to the positions we’re holding in Arryn/Stark/Lannister. Same exact strategy. Same hedge (March 2026 $400 puts).
I don’t own Nvidia or Apple atm. I’m just in the QQQ Jan 2027 $400 calls right now. Though I did own the same spreads we had in Baratheon. Closed all of those out. Don’t own long-term Nvidia/Apple.
So I”m more aggressive in the expiration (Jan 2027 versus June 2027) but more conservative in the diversification (exclusive QQQ versus QQQ + Apple + Nvidia).
If you click on the model portfolio pages, they outline their illustrative nature. It would be impossible to do all of them with capital since we’re launching them on each correction.
The point behind the model portfolios is to illustrate how the overall strategy — long on correction + ongoing hedge — operates in practice.
If you look at the 4-part framework, that is the core strategy:
https://sam-weiss.com/samwise/samwise-strategies/4-part-framework/
Thanks for clarifying. Additionally, I’m wondering what your full-time job is outside of this blog? Clearly you’ve been looking at markets for decades to have developed these strategies (especially with your uncanny ability to call bottoms on corrections..)
Sam, how are you calculating the value of the options at each price point in the charts? I’d like to be able to do the same analysis myself. Is there a tool or something that you use? If you could link that would be great.