Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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Gotta admit that my anxiety has been creeping up as well. I know that patience is key but this rally seems to defy logic at this point. We have a ton of cash sitting on sidelines “missing out”, and the puts are getting burned as well. Also, AAPL is being very weak and the eranings could make that worse
Agreed! it feels like things will really start to go down later today or tomorrow and the downturn will begin!
Always this way, going long requires patience
So it’s Tacos for lunch
For folks that have been here long enough know that if the core of your portfolio is following the stock or the leaps portfolios you are golden. For me the goal is to stick around for at least another 5 years with the blog post and see the effects on the long term model portfolios. I really do hope Sam continues as this information is amazing for those of us who would otherwise simply invest in stocks and forget it. That is the bread and butter of this whole blog post, the stocks and leaps portfolios. It might help me retire early by a decade or maybe even two decades if it plays out the way it is right now. Even a sub-par entry on stark and Frey are producing amazing returns which is the whole point of the portfolios. Thank you Sam for these amazing posts and I really hope you don’t let others anxieties bog you down. Yesterday’s comment section was rife with folks who are focussed on the ultra near term. Unfortunately the nature of this blog post is that we would only really have one or maybe two posts a MONTH to cover the leaps and stock portfolios. If you remember Sam launched a long term update page when Baratheon and Targaryen were taking over the blog a few months ago. I’m not sure if there is one for June and July but that’s really all that is needed to invest in this method, one or two posts a month. Those that know this will treat the remaining coverage as educational and to some extent entertainment. Any trades in Baratheon and Targaryen are to be speculative trades to have fun in the market while your retirement chills in stocks based portfolio and depending on your risk appetite probably the leaps to a less extent as it is way more timing sensitive.
Couldn’t agree more:)
Retire by 35 !
Great post, couldn’t agree more. I understand the anxiety to some degree, but if you follow the daily briefings, there’s nothing mystical or out of left field going on. Second largest correction, second largest rally. The fact that we were at peak anxiety about the correction never ending and are now at peak anxiety about the rally never ending with a mere 3 months in between should be enough to assuage that anxiety. If there was something unexplainable taking place, anxiety makes sense, but the way Sam’s laid it out, there’s almost nothing unique going on here. Same things he’s always talked about, just at a larger scale.
Great comment
We have lower lows and fading RSI on the hourly.
We need to wait for the retest twice ? Have that always been the pattern ?
Sam, do you have any additional thoughts after close? I want to say that you’ve mentioned before that a gap up and a sizeable sell-off like this is bearish for QQQ. There are quite a few earnings today, so I’d be curious to know what you think about going into tomorrow.
Today is very bearish for the market. We are going down the retest route. Basically our goal now is to add positions when the market snaps back to test the high.
In reality, we will probably add positions somewhere around $570 on the retest.
There’s a possibility that we could be seeing a segment of Valley pullback here of 2-4% followed by a retest of the highs that could fall short.
That’s my thought process right now. If we get no retest, then that’s fine. We will just ride what we have already invested and then look to play the market from the long side oversold.
Sam, You don’t think this is the beginning of the 5-10% correction that you have spoken of?
Lots of reasons to make a case for heading right into a correction
No reliable way to know until we see it. If the correction indeed started yesterday, then it’ll likely be over by the end of August or early September. They tend to run 15-20 days.
The grim reaper has arrived
This could be the retest. The low of today was 551.88 which is 3.96% off of the highs of 574.63
NVDA dropped $12.41 off its highs, or 6.77%
Would be poetic if we saw peak, 4% pullback, failed retest all in the span of 2 sessions after what seemed like days and days of basically sideways action
Anyone can correct me if I am wrong, but is the correction estimated to be 8-12% based on the rally tables?