Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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QQQ got as low as $610.37
That’s pretty much a full gap-fill right? So we could easily see the QQQ bottom here. Also at $610, the pull-back has now reached 4%. As such, the QQQ can easily start a new segment. Or we can get an acceleration of the bearish momentum — which is exactly how it will happen once the correction starts.
ON the other hand, the QQQ is oversold. So it might call for closing out part of our puts and maybe buying some calls. We’ll discuss in a bit. Want to see more downside first. We’re oversold, just not that deeply oversold yet. Not as much as I’d expect with the QQQ having reached $610.
Sam, How low do you expect NVDA to go?
Within what context? Within the context of a full blown correction, I expect Nviida to get down to around $150. If we’re talking near-term segmented pull-back liek we’re seeing maybe $180-$185. I mean as the QQQ is now at $610, we could be seeing a bottom of the segment. So it could be bottoming right now as the segment is concerned.
If you’re talking after a full correction, then expect $150. If you’re asking about here and now near-term, within the next 10 points.
It’s unclear as of now if the correction has started or not. So far everything the QQQ is doing is 100% in-line with what we drew out before the QQQ ever moved above $620. The target was a rally to $630-$640, peak and pull-back to clsoe the gap at $610 with the pull-back going as low as the $600-$610 range. That’s what we outlined based on historical trends — we’ve seen this exact thing play out on THREE previous century breakouts on the QQQ. Exactly as we’re seeing right now. In all three cases, the QQQ bottomed at $X00 to $X10.
If the QQQ bottoms here near-term, then so has Nvidia.
Thanks Sam!
Sam – so once it reached 600-610. we expect it to go back to 637-640 in a week or two? or something like 620 and drop to 570?
there is heavy support at 610 so it may not fall any further. If it clears than next stop according to my tea leaves is 595-600.
Whether is bounces back from today’s lows or fall further depends on volume. If buyers step in it bounces if not, it falls.
Hope you have good charts and level2 data
so if it falls under 610, there’s gonna be heavy support at 608 — where we topped before — and again at $603. If the QQQ falls under 610, it probably holds the 600 level because it’s very oversold already.
The area for us to make transitions is going to be at around 605 a share if the QQQ manages to break under 610.
Now that we have breached 615 I think safe to say that we are headed to 620-625. possibly will close today closer to 620
Edit: this comment was very unclear so I edited it for clarity. Hopefully you’re reading it after I edited it. Using voice chat on a phone can often lead to a bad translation.
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So it’s not even clear that the QQQ would ever get back up to 640 again.
If it does go in that direction, then it’s a segmented rally and that usually plays out over 8 to 16 days.
To rally all the way back up to 637 is a $27 move up or a 4.4% segment.
As a smaller segment that would take probably closer to like 8 to 10 days.
We don’t really have a clear cut picture from $610 a share.
There are a number of different directions the QQQ can take from here.
One possibility is the QQQ can bottom right here at $610 support — having filled — gap and begin a brand new segment. That’s one distinct possibility now that QQQ has filled the gap.
Another possibility is the QQQ might be starting a correction right here and now.
If the QQQ goes down the correction path, then the rebound we get from here is not really a segment rebound, but more just a rebound to the midline. There’s simply no way to know until the QQQ rebounds to the midline peaks and starts to fall back to the lows unfortunately.
Like if we’re in the beginnings of a correction, then the rebound should only reach the midline which is around 620 a share.
Alternatively, we can see the QQQ break under 610 and fall to as low as 600. This would be the best case scenario for clarity.
As we mentioned in our post, if we see that happen, then the odds that were in a correction (or setting up for a correction) absolutely skyrockets
The reason for that being if the QQQ ends up at 600 then it’s a major 6% segment just to get back to the highs. That’s a clear cut indication that QQQ has either began a correction or will begin the process of forming a double top on the very next move up.
What’s more if the QQQ falls under 610 and pushes down to the low 600 then it’s going to reach deeply oversold conditions which also set up a clear cut trade.
I’ll be honest this is what we wanna see as we will have the most clear picture of what the markets are gonna do next if we get down to 600.
Even dropping till like 603 to 605 would be better for clarity.
Down near those level levels, we would close out half of our September puts and probably consider a long position.
Because down there, we are for sure going to rebound.
Even if we’re in a correction, we will likely rebound because we will be down 5.8%. Even in corrections, the first leg down in the correction of leads to a rebound.
So if we get down to 600 then you can expect the QQQ to bounce back till like 6:15 to 617 to share.
From there, if the correction has begun, then the next leg down would be to 580.
The way to imagine that is the QQQ rebounds to 617, the rug is pulled and it falls below 600 leading to a heavy slide toward the low 590s. From there may be a day or two later the QQQ gets down to 580 and that’s where it would rebound again.
Alternatively, if we get down to 603 to 6:05 in the QQQ wants to go down the double top route then we bought and have a full segment again back to the highs.
In that scenario, we probably top in December leading into a standard blood bath in January which we’ve seen in the past.
A bottom here at 610 makes things a little unclear. Again that’s because the distance from 610 to the highest is very small. Meaning we could begin a new segment and end up near 650 a share. That’s a big enough high that the rally could be said to have continued.
Whereas a segment rally from 600 push the QQQ in a bad place. It looks like a double top.
What’s more, getting down to 600 means we’re set up for a big rebound.
Hi Sam, is the potential long position being considered still Sept ’26 $700 calls?
hi Sam, thanks for your insights as always. Given the trading today thus far, is this beginning of a rebound?
Hi Sam, Is the interpretation here that a break of 610 down to 605 or so and deeply oversold an indication of the start of a topping process or a breakdown into correction but a strong bounce means we begin a new segmented rally?