Today was more of a transitionary session. We outline what comes next and how we're going to capitalize on it. The market has two directions it can go in and both lead to very obvious decisions. We're in a good spot right now.
Apologies for the potentially rehashed question, but when you say
“Because we are almost certainly going to see a double-bottom or incremental new low.”
Is this because if we were to have another leg down (5-6%) from here ($620) that’ll put us at around $590-$600 for the bottom of the leg? How does this play into the idea that this over extended retracement has invalidated the idea we’re currently in a correction?
So if we see another leg down, we’re unlikely to to meet correction threshold levels right? Or at least it would be really close. Maybe it would qualify. At 7.3%, it would be close. and we wouldn’t be able to confirm whether or not a correction had transpired until the QQQ made new substantial new highs. And I”ll be honest, that’d be pretty definitive proof.
So if we pulled back to $590 (7.3% total for the pull-back) from $620, bottomed and then rallied back, it would be really difficult for the QQQ to subsequently make new highs — it’s +47 points on a segment just to get back to the highs — without us now being in a new rally.
Think back to March 2024. We had an 8% correction then. The rally from there was very explosive. We had very deeply overbought hourly levels. More overgoutht than any rally we’ve seen here. And the rally ended up being short lived. But we saw 3 segments with 90-RSIs. It was in the same sort of scenario.
I do find it very very unlikely that we would go down to $590, stop and then begin a whole new rally. Not after hte market has rallied for 7+ months and 60%. Instead, I think what would happen is we’d get the same sort of scenario we had back in January.
A 7% mini correction followed by a much larger and complex top. I think if we saw a second leg down to $590, bottom and rallied back, it would very likely be just like January.
I mean look at the last segment. It was one of our strongest segments of the entire rally era. And that one went from $590 to $637. It would have to MATCH that segment just to return to the highs. Nevermind making new highs. It would have the same exact buy side momentum to take it up 47-points.
Kiran Kumar
November 12, 2025 4:44 pm
Hi Sam, does it mean deeper correction to 580 may not happen?
No. That’s not at all what’s going on here. It just means that the pull-back we’ve seen right now probably is not the correction because the rebound went too far. Also, as the market pull-back from $637 goes, it doesn’t have much in terms of downside also becuase of how far the rebound went.
When a correction does occur, it’s like to be north of 11%. That’s the most likely scenario right now at 80%+ (based on historical data).
Kiran Kumar
November 12, 2025 4:57 pm
Hi Sam, I tried to understand your posts. However, i am asking for more simpler explanation here. I know market demands us to be flexible. However, what is the most likely scenario here? We have QE coming up, interest cuts, santa rally and also potential profit securing. We also have NVDA earnings coming up. I see lot of risk assets are getting sold off, gold, silver, and value stocks (non-Ai including apple) are getting bought. Considering all this, do you think we will still go to 630 and drop to 600 and get back to 630? and then what could happen? when do you think is the deeper correction to 580? (Jan or Feb?)
Deeper correction timing depends on how fast the market can go through that process. It needs to test the highs, form a double-top and then pull-back. That process can take time or it can happen fast.
Santa rally, QE, earnings etc. don’t get in the way of a correction. When the market has decided it’s time to take profits, nothing gets in the way of that.
Last year, instead of a Santa rally, the QQQ dropped 8%. So it’s not a guaranteed thing.
Joey
November 13, 2025 10:46 am
Is QQQ trying to close its gap at 609.95? Might a good trading opportunity if it does🤔
Going to reach fairly deep oversold as it breaches $610 and fills the gap. It does look similar to last Friday with $600
Chris Goodman
November 13, 2025 11:46 am
I got a weird looking Weekly Roundup Thursday morning which looks more like an update. I can’t access or find it. I’ve had plenty of time be migrated. It’s just asking me to pay the new rate, even though I’m logged in.
By
/ November 12, 2025 
Hi Sam,
Apologies for the potentially rehashed question, but when you say
“Because we are almost certainly going to see a double-bottom or incremental new low.”
Is this because if we were to have another leg down (5-6%) from here ($620) that’ll put us at around $590-$600 for the bottom of the leg? How does this play into the idea that this over extended retracement has invalidated the idea we’re currently in a correction?
Thanks!
So if we see another leg down, we’re unlikely to to meet correction threshold levels right? Or at least it would be really close. Maybe it would qualify. At 7.3%, it would be close. and we wouldn’t be able to confirm whether or not a correction had transpired until the QQQ made new substantial new highs. And I”ll be honest, that’d be pretty definitive proof.
So if we pulled back to $590 (7.3% total for the pull-back) from $620, bottomed and then rallied back, it would be really difficult for the QQQ to subsequently make new highs — it’s +47 points on a segment just to get back to the highs — without us now being in a new rally.
Think back to March 2024. We had an 8% correction then. The rally from there was very explosive. We had very deeply overbought hourly levels. More overgoutht than any rally we’ve seen here. And the rally ended up being short lived. But we saw 3 segments with 90-RSIs. It was in the same sort of scenario.
I do find it very very unlikely that we would go down to $590, stop and then begin a whole new rally. Not after hte market has rallied for 7+ months and 60%. Instead, I think what would happen is we’d get the same sort of scenario we had back in January.
A 7% mini correction followed by a much larger and complex top. I think if we saw a second leg down to $590, bottom and rallied back, it would very likely be just like January.
I mean look at the last segment. It was one of our strongest segments of the entire rally era. And that one went from $590 to $637. It would have to MATCH that segment just to return to the highs. Nevermind making new highs. It would have the same exact buy side momentum to take it up 47-points.
Hi Sam, does it mean deeper correction to 580 may not happen?
No. That’s not at all what’s going on here. It just means that the pull-back we’ve seen right now probably is not the correction because the rebound went too far. Also, as the market pull-back from $637 goes, it doesn’t have much in terms of downside also becuase of how far the rebound went.
When a correction does occur, it’s like to be north of 11%. That’s the most likely scenario right now at 80%+ (based on historical data).
Hi Sam, I tried to understand your posts. However, i am asking for more simpler explanation here. I know market demands us to be flexible. However, what is the most likely scenario here? We have QE coming up, interest cuts, santa rally and also potential profit securing. We also have NVDA earnings coming up. I see lot of risk assets are getting sold off, gold, silver, and value stocks (non-Ai including apple) are getting bought. Considering all this, do you think we will still go to 630 and drop to 600 and get back to 630? and then what could happen? when do you think is the deeper correction to 580? (Jan or Feb?)
Deeper correction timing depends on how fast the market can go through that process. It needs to test the highs, form a double-top and then pull-back. That process can take time or it can happen fast.
Santa rally, QE, earnings etc. don’t get in the way of a correction. When the market has decided it’s time to take profits, nothing gets in the way of that.
Last year, instead of a Santa rally, the QQQ dropped 8%. So it’s not a guaranteed thing.
Is QQQ trying to close its gap at 609.95? Might a good trading opportunity if it does🤔
Going to reach fairly deep oversold as it breaches $610 and fills the gap. It does look similar to last Friday with $600
I got a weird looking Weekly Roundup Thursday morning which looks more like an update. I can’t access or find it. I’ve had plenty of time be migrated. It’s just asking me to pay the new rate, even though I’m logged in.