SPY/QQQ Mildly Overbought & All Scenarios Still In Play

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Alex Klap

Happy Thanksgiving, Sam. Love the publication. Excited to see the strategy play out.

Angela

How can we know that the QQQ will pull back 3-4% once it retests the highs and not keep going higher? there were several times during this rally where the qqq only sustained a small ~2-2.5% pullback without getting oversold and just kept pushing higher, so it would have been difficult to know when to trade out of the puts.

EY

Thanks Sam! Volume looked pretty thin this week so it might be an interesting next few days with the start of a new month and normal trading volume

Derek Truong

Hi Sam,

Very thankful for you, your analysis, and insights this year! Excited to see what next year brings and what’s to come!

Karl Peak

Hello Sam,

The probability of a Fed rate cut has increased from 30% to 80%, which would explain the rebound in QQQ and Bitcoin.

Does this invalidate scenario 1 or, more broadly, the upcoming correction?

Scenario 3, with a rally to $700, seems to be emerging, and at the same time, Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles seem to foreshadow a sharp decline, potentially also affecting QQQ?

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