The market was trading at extremely overbought conditions and was due for a near-term pull-back. We're seeing that play-out right now. But how long will it last?
I found out about you yesterday and now I’m gobbling up your analyses religiously! I’ve read through the last couple dailies you’ve posted. I used to have strong biases against technical analysis but you’ve shown me the arguments in favor of it! I’ve been learning a lot, thank you
Good to have a health bias against technicals. There are aspects of it that are useful. But overall, taking a long-term stance on the market is always going to be far superior to worrying about the short-term gyrations. There’s a place for technicals. But it just needs to be applied correctly.
Josiah Moberly
August 23, 2024 12:46 am
Just wanted to say I appreciate this post immensely. I think I’ve learned more effective information from this one post than I have on my own in the past week, particularly because you show the “back-testing” for this against the very stock that I am trading. I’m staying tuned in! I’m very curious if you would be willing to share your positions on these events as it would give us a point of reference to see when you buy and how much. Some of us are just buying when we can but may be better served if we understood when the experienced like yourself are investing the bulk of their shares vs when you’re only buying smaller positions. Anyway, you are greatly appreciated for sharing this information and I’d like to send you a monetary gift if you end up making me the money I think you will. I’ll stay in touch.
@Jerry That’s nearly impossible to forecast. It’s too specific and there isn’t a lot of back testing to be had. What I could say is however the market as a whole reacts will impact Nvidia.
@Josiah I’ll be getting to that soon. There’s some content I’m going to be publishing in the investing basics section of the website. It’s going to cover issues related to buying and selling.
The difficult part about giving generalized when to “buy” and when to “sell” insights is that not everyone has the same investment time horizon, risk tolerance and wealth.
One person losing their investment can be life altering and another might just yawn and add more capital to their account.
With such an incredibly wide range of potential investors, buy/sell recommendations need to be more personally tailored.
That being said, what I’ll doing here is basically outlining where stocks are headed, when we’re likely bottoming, when we’re likely nearing a top and then depending on the type of investor, they can trade on that.
I might put together a model investment portfolio eventually. But even then, it wouldn’t be applicable to everyone. I’d probably lean on the conservative side of the spectrum.
But that may very well be a thing I do.
Mr. Meow
August 23, 2024 3:18 am
???????????????????????? As always. Great stuff man.
So it has been a roller coaster ride of confidence. But I wouldn’t say I’m confident now. I’d say I’m confident about certain set ups and less confident about others.
It just depends on the situations. For example, a few weeks back when Nvidia was at $90-100 a share, I had very high confidence it would rally. Why? Because it was deeply oversold. The market was deeply oversold. The backrest on that was very dispositive. It was a very win-rate, very high probability trade.
But take today for the instance. I don’t have high confidence on which direction we’re headed in the near-term.
Why? We’re not oversold. We’re not overbought. On top of that, we didn’t really pull back far enough for me to be highly confidence that the pullback ended or that we won see another sharp pullback before heading higher.
Longer-term, I’m confident we’re headed higher because the backtest on the longer-term outlook supports the view with high confidence. At 35 trading-days post-correction, we’re typically a lot higher than where we were at 15-days. And on top of that, the trend points toward a 40-day minimum rally.
So confidence is derived from the situation. Seeing the same thing play out over and over again.
Terry
August 24, 2024 12:58 am
Thanks for the post /heads up on the pullback. Unfortunately I read too much into your words and held back on buying more NVDA during yesterday’s pullback thinking it’d hit $120-115. Do you think there might be a chance it will drop a bit to 125 or so before earnings on Wednesday?
Ayesha Farooq
August 24, 2024 8:50 am
Hey there! I have few questions regarding my personal investment,, just wondering how can I ask and get answers.
By
/ August 22, 2024 
Great post as always!
I found out about you yesterday and now I’m gobbling up your analyses religiously! I’ve read through the last couple dailies you’ve posted. I used to have strong biases against technical analysis but you’ve shown me the arguments in favor of it! I’ve been learning a lot, thank you
Good to have a health bias against technicals. There are aspects of it that are useful. But overall, taking a long-term stance on the market is always going to be far superior to worrying about the short-term gyrations. There’s a place for technicals. But it just needs to be applied correctly.
Just wanted to say I appreciate this post immensely. I think I’ve learned more effective information from this one post than I have on my own in the past week, particularly because you show the “back-testing” for this against the very stock that I am trading. I’m staying tuned in! I’m very curious if you would be willing to share your positions on these events as it would give us a point of reference to see when you buy and how much. Some of us are just buying when we can but may be better served if we understood when the experienced like yourself are investing the bulk of their shares vs when you’re only buying smaller positions. Anyway, you are greatly appreciated for sharing this information and I’d like to send you a monetary gift if you end up making me the money I think you will. I’ll stay in touch.
What effect do you think the interest rate cut will have on NVDA stock price before and after their quarterly report next week?
@Jerry That’s nearly impossible to forecast. It’s too specific and there isn’t a lot of back testing to be had. What I could say is however the market as a whole reacts will impact Nvidia.
@Josiah I’ll be getting to that soon. There’s some content I’m going to be publishing in the investing basics section of the website. It’s going to cover issues related to buying and selling.
The difficult part about giving generalized when to “buy” and when to “sell” insights is that not everyone has the same investment time horizon, risk tolerance and wealth.
One person losing their investment can be life altering and another might just yawn and add more capital to their account.
With such an incredibly wide range of potential investors, buy/sell recommendations need to be more personally tailored.
That being said, what I’ll doing here is basically outlining where stocks are headed, when we’re likely bottoming, when we’re likely nearing a top and then depending on the type of investor, they can trade on that.
I might put together a model investment portfolio eventually. But even then, it wouldn’t be applicable to everyone. I’d probably lean on the conservative side of the spectrum.
But that may very well be a thing I do.
???????????????????????? As always. Great stuff man.
Thanks!
Thanks for your posts man! Lets me sleep more calm these nights haha
Great to hear! ????
Thanks for the post! I’m curious how long it took you to feel this confident as a trader? I’m assuming you must do this for a living.
So it has been a roller coaster ride of confidence. But I wouldn’t say I’m confident now. I’d say I’m confident about certain set ups and less confident about others.
It just depends on the situations. For example, a few weeks back when Nvidia was at $90-100 a share, I had very high confidence it would rally. Why? Because it was deeply oversold. The market was deeply oversold. The backrest on that was very dispositive. It was a very win-rate, very high probability trade.
But take today for the instance. I don’t have high confidence on which direction we’re headed in the near-term.
Why? We’re not oversold. We’re not overbought. On top of that, we didn’t really pull back far enough for me to be highly confidence that the pullback ended or that we won see another sharp pullback before heading higher.
Longer-term, I’m confident we’re headed higher because the backtest on the longer-term outlook supports the view with high confidence. At 35 trading-days post-correction, we’re typically a lot higher than where we were at 15-days. And on top of that, the trend points toward a 40-day minimum rally.
So confidence is derived from the situation. Seeing the same thing play out over and over again.
Thanks for the post /heads up on the pullback. Unfortunately I read too much into your words and held back on buying more NVDA during yesterday’s pullback thinking it’d hit $120-115. Do you think there might be a chance it will drop a bit to 125 or so before earnings on Wednesday?
Hey there! I have few questions regarding my personal investment,, just wondering how can I ask and get answers.