Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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I bought some TSLA around $217 for long term. Considering sell put $200， any comments?
I meant to ask if sell put $200 a good hedge? thx
When hedging a stock or an ETF that an investor is long, selling puts won’t work as a hedge. One would need to buy puts to hedge their positions.
For example, in the Samwise Tyrell Portfolio, we Bought the December 2025 $450 Puts at $23.15 per contract ($2,315) which was around a 5% position compared to our $50,000 position in the QQQ.
Hedging does require a lot of analysis to get it right. There is a lot of math involved. Take a look at the responses I gave to comments in this post here:
https://sam-weiss.com/trade-alert-hedges-bought-for-the-sw-tyrell-portfolio/
Will do. I’m still trying to get a hang of using options to protect my investments. Thanks, Sam.
Hi Sam, there has been some recent news buzz about AI-adjacent investments in energy companies. Specifically Vistra and Constellation Energy have made outsized gains this year.
Curious if you had any thoughts on investing in energy/utility has the AI wave takes off thanks!
So while there are a lot of different ways to invest on the Ai, we’re going to stick to the core investment strategies. We’re probably not going to steer very far off course from investing in mega cap stocks. Mostly because I think we can produce the gains we need to produce without the uncertainty that generally accompanies investing in less established names.
Since it’s Friday, I was afraid that the day traders would crash QQQ back to the negatives, but it held in the positive, just. Is this enough to sustain the trend?
I know the comment is really late. But today’s action seems to suggest so.
Hey Sam, lovely content. Well worth the monthly sub. I’m wondering if you have any thoughts on PLTR? That seems to be an interesting one, although with very lopsided fundamentals. Perhaps you’re seeing something different from the data?
Hi Sam, I consider myself a beginner investor and I’m wondering, can you compare an s&p 500 etf only portfolio with your lower-risk (common stocks) model portfolios in terms of risk and return wise. Thanks a lot!
@Laslo — so we may very well launch an SPY portfolio in the future. I did used to run one quite successfully for 5-6 years straight. So we may very well do that here on the next correction.
As our common stock portfolio is concerned, it carries significantly higher risk than does the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF). That’s because the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) is inherently less diversified than is the SPY and carries a much higher Beta than the SPY. For example, in the last bear market, the SPY fell 26.63% in 2022. The NASDAQ-100 dropped a full 38.7% during that same period.
But the NASDAQ-100 also has significantly more upside than does the SPY. After bottoming out at $250 a share back in December 2022, the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) has nearly doubled in value. In fact, right at $500, it’s a straight double (100% returns). The SPY has only gone up 73% over the same period.
The Tyrell Portfolio is even far riskier than that because we’re so heavily invested in Nvidia (NVDA). A full 30%+ of the entire portfolio’s weighting is in Nvidia. That makes the portfolio inherently less diversified.
But we are hedged in the Tyrell Portfolio and the portfolio does have substantially more upside than does the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) alone or the S&P 500 (SPY).
Still, to answer your question, it’s significantly riskier than the SPY and has substantially greater return potential.
@Andrew There’s obviously a massive amount of momentum in Palantir given its government contracts and the general increasing demand for Ai driven solutions. We’ll probably stick with Nvidia as our main Ai play. Mostly because there’s a certain stability and trend we can come to expect out of mega cap tech stocks. Our general strategy is based on the underlying principle that larger cap stocks tend to remain a going concern well into the future. Like with Crypto currencies, there’s staying power in the core names.
As PLTR is concerned, I can say that it’s due for a sharp pull-back based on the last two days trading action coupled with the fact that it is deeply overbought on the daily. Also, the stock could’t be more priced to perfection. With a 256 trailing P/E ratio and a 110 forward P/E, if the stock doesn’t produce the near 100% earnings growth expectations set for this year, it’s going to collapse. The company has to maintain its earnings growth and has to perform perfectly in every way to continue higher.
That being said, with the stock being a much smaller company, there’s a lot of room for upside growth. It’s a high risk, high reward company in that regard.
I’ve generally tended to trade the mega cap names because there is a lot of volatile in those stocks and we can largely just trade the broad trend for alpha. With PLTR, one takes on a different kind of risk.
Sam, just a headsup the portfolio tracker doesn’t seem to be updating for the “Last” price. For example it’s still showing NVDL’s last price at $55.85, so it’s understating your return %.
Thanks Christopher. Appreciate the heads-up. So the portfolio tracker isn’t really at tracker. It’s just a data table that has to be manually updated. I track the portfolio through thinkorswim. But I have to manually updated the values on site. So I generally tend to do that once a week or after a trade.