Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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Is there a possibility that NVDA will dip before earnings?
The only evidence we really have pointing in the direction of a pull-back is the fact that the rally cycle started a bit earlier than usually. As I pointed out last week, we tend to see breakouts right after earnings. Not ahead of earnings. So there’s that.
Also, Nvidia is now up a full 40% from its lows in September. At some point, we’ll see a larger pull-back. But that is unlikely to happen until after Nvidia reports earnings.
While we could easily see a pull-back at any moment in time for any number of unknown reasons, there’s nothing pointing explicitly in that direction right now. There’s nothing we see that would suggest a pull-back is due ahead of earnings beyond the fact that the cycle began a little too early. That and the NASDAQ-100 still hasn’t broken out.
Hey Sam,
When it comes to the 5k to 1M challenge, do you know any good/reliable resources that explain how to actually enter those trades? I’m a rookie, so I have no idea how to properly enter these more advanced trades with options, says through Fidelity. I’ve only ever dealt with common stocks and ETFs.
And one more thing, you have been doing an amazing job so far over here. I love your analysis, explanation, and strategies. I did ask a question a few days ago that you answered, so thank you for that. But I do have a follow up question. I very recently came into about 250k and I’ve wracking my brain as to what to do with it. I do want follow your strategies though, that I know for sure. Given that you recommend to only invest during corrections, should I sit on the cash and wait for that opportunity to arise? Am I understanding this correctly?
Hey Alex — thanks for the comment and vote of confidence. So let me say first that this website is a financial publication and not a financial advisor. We can’t really offer advice on any one person should invest their own personal capital. You can read more about that here:
https://sam-weiss.com/investment-advice/
That being said, what we can do is tell you how we would invest based on the analysis, reasoning and strategy we’ve outlined throughout the site. To get a sense of the underlying strategy behind the model portfolios, I’d read investing basics found here:
https://sam-weiss.com/investing-basics/
And our Samwise rules to investing which we’re currently expanding. We’re going to be publishing a more comprehensive strategy shortly. It’s currently in draft form atm:
https://sam-weiss.com/samwise/samwise-strategies/
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“When it comes to the 5k to 1M challenge, do you know any good/reliable resources that explain how to actually enter those trades? I’m a rookie, so I have no idea how to properly enter these more advanced trades with options, says through Fidelity. I’ve only ever dealt with common stocks and ETFs.”
The first place to start is to spend time understanding call-options, put-options and vertical call-spreads. There are a lot of good beginner resources all over the web. I’m sure there are countless tutorials on the subject on YouTube. ChatGBT will for sure have a comprehensive explanation. I’m publishing an intro to options (Chapter 4 in investing basics) which is also currently in draft form. We have a bunch of things going on at the same time right now. But that’s a very easily accessible subject matter.
If you’re trying to get a better sense of how to trade options, you can also speak with Fidelity about it.
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“I very recently came into about 250k and I’ve wracking my brain as to what to do with it. I do want follow your strategies though, that I know for sure. Given that you recommend to only invest during corrections, should I sit on the cash and wait for that opportunity to arise? Am I understanding this correctly?”
So that’s the one area I can’t really talk about at all. Here’s what I will say. You should really read our recently published article on diversification and take that analysis very seriously. We’re also publishing a chapter on investor psychology soon. All really important stuff. Everything we discuss in risk management is crucial.
Awesome. Thank You for the reply
If you elect to go with LEAPS for one of these trade watches instead of a vertical spread, would it be reasonable, as someone without a lot of cash on the sidelines at the moment, to join in the fun with a LEAPS vertical spread?
So I can just say that vertical spreads are a lot more risky in some ways and less risky in others. If you invest the same total net amount in the trade, then spread are substantially more risky and are significantly more volatile.
The reason we’d opt for leaps is to gain a little more leverage than what we get with common stock. But spreads create way too much inherent leverage for the type of trades we’re looking at here.
But again, all we can really do is publish what we’re doing and our reasoning. We can’t really give personal advice on what any one particular person should do.
Hey Sam,
You seem quite convinced in Tesla‘s fundamental value and future potential?
Maybe this goes to far in the comment section but are you not worried about Waymo already having FSD-Technology out, the resurgence of hybrid cars, Musk in general and him announcing timelines for products and constantly missing them, and so on?
Maybe this post looks stupid after earnings tomorrow but just some stuff I am not sure about.
Thank you
HI Florian — so I do have confidence in Tesla’s long-term fundamentals. The company does run into headwinds often. And yes Musk does’t have a lot of credibility when it comes to setting dates, expectations and even his own self-imposed deadlines. But Musk does know how to innovate. He is the Steve Jobs of our time and that’s what investors are buying when investing in Tesla.
But more than the long-term fundamentals, we’re merely looking at Tesla from the perspective of buying it once it’s deeply oversold or undervalued. From that perspective, even with all of the headwinds, we’ll still do really well.
Your post won’t look “stupid” either way because you make good points. Whatever happens on earnings, doesn’t change your arguments. Your points are valid.
There’s increasing competition, Musk isn’t a well disciplined leader and Tesla already trades at a 61 P/E ratio. It’s not cheap. All good points. I hope it drops big time on earnings tomorrow so we can buy it though lol.
Thank you! Lets hope so then:)
Interresting, TSLA earning report is tomorrow after hours.
Yeah. Hopefully we get a drop. We need it under $200 for this to be a good buying opportunity.