Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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Sam, with Trump’s odds of winning improving recently, a growing concern I have with NVDA is Trump’s tougher stance on Taiwan. He had mentioned that Taiwan should pay for its defense and evaded answering whether the US would defend Taiwan if China attempts a naval blockade. What’s your take on NVDA’s stock price if Trump wins in November?
So I’ll try to stay as politically neutral as possible. In fact, I generally try to steer very clear of politics at all costs in all walks of life. But I will say this. When looking at President Trump’s last presidential term, the stock market generally fared very well. From when he entered office in 2016 until he exited, the stock market was way higher. In his first two years in office, we didn’t even see an actual real correction. We had two back to back massive melt-up rallies in fact.
That being said, his fights with the fed chief — his constant criticism and interventionist rhetoric toward the fed for raising interest rates — and some of his trade policies (China Trade War) did have a major impact and the market did sustain three major corrections in 2018, 2019 and 2020 — much of that having to do with the trade war with China, his criticism of the fed, the inverting yield curve and rising rates. Both the 2018 and 2019 corrections can be directly tied to his foreign policy/interventionist rhetoric toward the fed.
He can’t be blamed for the 2020 correction whatsoever and I even think the best part of his administration came in how he handled project light speed — removing regulatory hurdles to allow for the creation of a covid vaccine. People can debate the ins and outs of that all they like but it did have a positive impact on the stock market. The covid crash only lasted 3 weeks, the stock market skyrocketed right after that and we immediately converted what could have been a very disastrous year into a really positive year for stocks. Remember, the economy basically shut down and the stock market closed out the year substantially higher than where it was when it entered the year.
Now tying this back to Taiwan and its incidental impact on Nvidia, all I can really say there is that there’s a huge difference between what happens on the campaign and what happens in office. It’s hard to gauge the impact because no policy has actually been advanced just yet nor do we have any sense of the fallout of such hypothetical foreign policies.
I will say that President Trump was substantially more brazen in how he dealt with the sensitivities of the stock market near the end of his term than he did during the beginning. In those first few years in office, he did everything in his power to placate the stock market. Toward the end of his term, not so much.
So it depends on which Trump we get if he’s elected. if we get second half Trump, then we might see some heavy voaltitly. If we get first half Trump, then I wouldn’t worry too much about Trump’s potential impact on Nvidia.
Hi Sam,
have you considered doing some sort of Premium subscription tier that would include monthly live Q&As? I would love to participate in a live, synchronous session with you and other fellow Sam Weiss (aka Diesel) students.
As time wears on, we’ll add a bunch of features. But at the moment, we probably wouldn’t have different tiers of memberships. We’d keep it as one single tier and just add features. Right now, I’m looking into how to develop a better forum system. This comment section is so archaic.
You may want to consider using Discord.
Hi Sam,
Does the enormity of the more recent daily volume start to weigh on the ability for NVDA to mimic past moves, or is it totally irrelevant?
The law of large numbers definitely does. I don’t think we’re going to see Nvidia rally 100% in a few months anymore. I think that’s a thing of the past. The last 100% run we’re going to see happened when Nviida rallied from $750 in April to $1400 in June. That’s unlikely to happen ever again. Not unless Nvidia sustains a massive crash first or something.
So in this breakout, for example, I was thinking $160-$170 as a high point. Pull-back to $120-$130 at the low end. That makes sense for the next trading range. $160 – $130 being more likely.
Does after hours move count towards where the stock closed for the day.. Interestingly enough the analysis was nvda close above 140 today, but it was pretty close but not above, but then after hours it shot up.
It doesn’t need to be “exactly” above. It’s not an exact science and almost nothing in the stock market is like that. the fact that it closed right there near $140 is a good thing.
It would have been better if it were above, but it’s still okay. It closed near its support line.
So the biggest issue with selling naked puts is the margin requirement. There’s also the logistical issue of launching portfolios.
So we launch new portfolios on each new correction as a way to illustrate the strategy to new subscribers. Right now, we only have four portfolios and all are fully invested at the moment — having bought in previous corrections.
Selling puts is a really good strategy if someone is in cash and committed to buying at a particular price. But in corrections, we don’t a specific price point because we’re waiting for oversold and other indicators to do our buying.
That’s why we’d need to see a correction actually transpire in order to know when to sell the puts as a strategy.
A lot a lot of people don’t have that level of trading ability. Selling naked puts/calls is basically the highest level of optional approval there is.