Going back to 2000, the Presidential Election has mostly had a positive influence on the stock market. At least from what we've seen, the stock market has generally moved higher in the weeks and months after the month of November of a Presidential election year. Interestingly enough, one thing t...
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But as you said the last weeks the NASDAQ has not exactly been rallying the last couple weeks right? Maybe that consolidation is due to pre-election„volatility“ without it being a full blown correction?
That’s very possible. The consolidation could be the market’s way of indicating nervousness ahead of the election.
Sam, I know markets are pricing in ~99% of a 25 bps cut next week, to me that might be optimistic given how inflation has been spreading and jobs remaining strong. IMO if Trump wins the Feds would be even less inclined to cut since tariffs would bring additional inflation. The bond market seems to agree as shown by the increase in yields. Do you think there will be a cut next week? If Feds don’t cut I think markets are going to react badly.
The fed will always cut at the next meeting if the market fully prices in a cut. Also, the fed won’t change its policy on hypothetical future political outcomes. We’d need to see tariffs first before the fed makes any changes to its outlook.
For the near term, the fed is likely to have a positive influence on the market.