Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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With the world events happening right now, do you believe it can impact Nvidia or the market in general drastically because based off Covid, it had little to no affect on.
Hello Denys — it depends on the event. The stock market’s current trading action reflects all known information all at once. How the market trades today already prices in all known news items — published or unpublished. It’s why we look at market technicals so closely. It gives us a widow into how the market prices-in headline risk.
If the stock market goes down, then it will take Nvidia with it. Nvidia cannot withstand a market correction. But that is usually only a short-term problem. In most cases, corrections happen quickly and end quickly. The market then recovers pretty quickly afterward.
Is it possible to get alerts on REDDIT as opposed to X. I’m not sure how. Maybe we create our own group? I don’t presently have X, and discovered you through REDDIT.
So the reason we choose X as a platform is due to the clean concise nature of the platform and the ability to send push notifications. The purpose is to send 2-3 sentence notifications that act almost like a text message.
You can do the same with reddit as well, but it just isn’t as clean of a set-up.
Obviously, everyone has their platform preferences. Reddit does make sense and so does discord. Ultimately, this is temporary in nature anyway as longer term we’re moving to our own app.
For now, X is being leveraged for its faster notification delivery speeds (push/sms) over e-mail for time-sensitive notifications.
As my reddit account is concerned, I’d rather limit the posts to more full length posts and avoid using it to send potentially hundreds of 2-3 sentence notifications for the time being.
By the way, I should add we only just recently fell back to this as a solution. I had been working on developing a texting solution through Twilio for the last 3-4 weeks. But it was extremely frustrating to develop and I ultimately put it on hold.
It’s surprisingly either very difficult or very costly to develop a very simple opt-in/opt-out texting(sms) solution. We may do that as well. But there’s a major hurdle we’re stuck at right now in the development process. If we can get past that, then that will also be a very simple option. Probably the cleanest solution overall.
Can we please get mobile alerts. It would help so much! Thanks
It’s coming. Got through a major hurdle tonight. Going to do some final testing. But it’s on its way. Hopefully will get it active before the next trade.
Yesterday the X (Twitter) solution actually worked. https://sam-weiss.com/sam-weiss-using-twitter-x-for-trade-other-real-time-notifications/
I’m a little confused by your discussion surrounding the retest vs rebound. Are you saying that the probability for a rebound within a larger pullback/rollover is increasing, yet it still appears to be a retest and not a rebound/rollover at this time?
SO let’s compare the two scenarios.
Let’s suppose the larger sell-off that began on Friday, November 15 was the beginning of a correction and that what we saw last week was nothing more than just a mere rebound.
If that were the case, we wouldn’t have seen the rebound go as far as it has.
The rebound has essentially now gone too far to simply be considered a mere rebound off ahead of another leg lower at this point.
Instead, what we’re seeing now is a “retest” of the prior highs across the indices. The Dow did make new highs today. The S&P 500 tested 6000 and failed. It rolled back. Whether it tests 6,000 again this week (or even today) remains to be seen. The QQQ never came close to its highs peaking at $511.43. But it’s still a retest nonetheless because it came close enough.
And that’s where we stand. I don’t think we’re in a correction just yet and the action we saw last week sort of confirms that. If we were already in a correction, then markets would be lower right now. In fact, rebounds in corrections don’t last this long. We would have seen another leg lower by last Thursday at the latest.
But we’re also nowhere near out of the woods just yet either. If the QQQ doesn’t move past $516 and the SPY doesn’t move past $600, we could very well be setting up to see a correction.
That makes sense. Thank you for the clarification; that was helpful.
Currently, when you add to an existing post, there’s no notification or indication that new content has been added. Personally, I often discover these updates much later—usually after repeatedly refreshing the page and carefully scrolling through to spot changes.
It would be really helpful if, whenever you update a post, you also left a comment noting the update. This way, everyone would receive a notification and be aware of the changes. For instance, you could write something like, “Updated at 11:47—see the new section for details.” This small step would greatly improve visibility and keep everyone in the loop.
SO here’s what I’m going to do. If there’s a particularly time sensitive or important update that requires some sort of action, then we’ll send out a tweet. The problem I run into with comments, is I could end up inundating both people’s inbox and the comment section with superfluous posts.
Like today’s update on “Reworking Nvidia’s Revenue Section.” That’s not remotely time pressing in any way.
But if the post was like “we’re thinking of selling our Targaryen positions” then that’s going to be more time sensitive. We’d probably send out a tweet.
I could comment here. just need to be careful because there are people silently following along and I’m sure many of them aren’t going to want 5-7 e-mails in their inbox for a single post.
I’m not a fan of X, but it appears to be a great temporary workaround to take advantage of their sms and push notifications. Thanks for coming up with that.
As far as post updates, it does seem that not having update notifications is a pain point that’s come up a few times in the comments. We have had some particularly eventful or volatile days that resulted in you making substantial timestamped updates to the daily post, which I love to see. I’m assuming that those updates wouldn’t warrant a tweet because they’re not actionable, but it could be helpful to get some sort of notification so that we’re aware that you’ve added important information (not just an administrative update like the revenue section today). Would you be open to saving the comment idea for those occasional occurrences? Notifications would only go out to those of us who follow your comments, so there is always the choice to engage with those notifications or not.
I can’t imagine how much time you’ve likely spent looking into alternatives, so thanks again for the progress you have made. I just wanted to drop this into the conversation for consideration. You’ve done a great job with the site thus far.
Any thoughts into how you look at additional purchases into the Tyrell portfolio? Specifically with the NVDA stock. Wondering on the size of the dips we need to be looking at in order to have a reasonably high degree of confidence in the timing of our purchases
So we’d probably buy something else instead of Nvidia (given the size of our Nvidia position). We were looking at Google, Tesla and ASML at different points in time. But nothing hit our price targets. We were close on Tesla and probably should have pulled the trigger above our target as we were fairly close to where we wanted to buy.
Awesome…I think ASML has taken quite the beating already from its ATH…are there general heuristics that you follow in order to feel confident in a buying opportunity? For those interested in NVDA still…is there a price target we should be looking at for that?
I would like to know if Call Options is a strategy you are considering in the current or future portfolios like Tyrell and Tarly ?
Yeah we’re going to continue launching in two’s (one option portfolio, one common stock) and then we’ll continue to actively manage previously established portfolios. Tarly and Tyrell will be around permanently and we’ll actively manage them by selling calls against our positions where appropriate. We may also hedge by purchasing puts. The reason we haven’t done so in those portfolios just yet is because our cost-basis is so incredibly low that it doesn’t require active hedging at the moment.
But in the next correction, we’ll be taking across in all of our portfolios where we can and adding two new ones.
Aren’t you afraid of being unable to keep up with more and more portfolios to manage, hedge etc. since they are all kinda unique in terms of what actions are needed for them?
Not really to be honest. Like it’s all basic math. If someone tosses me a portfolio during a correction, after a correction etc, you just make the adjustments right there on the spot. You sell covered calls, buy puts, reduce exposure etc.
What will be annoying is the time it takes to update them. That’s why I’m working on a portfolio tracker plugin. So I don’t have to do all of the updating manually. I just put in the trade the portfolio tracker does the math.
That sounds good!
See updates above:
(1) Trades Executed in Targaryen Portfolio. Closed out the trades. Option trades can be made up to 15 minutes after the markets close.
(2) Posted an update on our expectations at 3:35 PM EST.
You ended yesterday mentioning that a rollover was looking more likely. With SPY retesting 600 this morning and QQQ unable to surpass 510 again and the RSI rather high on both, does this support that?