Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
Please login to view this page.
Please see 11:00 AM update.
See 11;30 AM update on the Samwise Portfolios.
See also trade watch published at 12:05 PM.
Sam,
I don’t know if you ream my previous question on a previous thread. But I am seeing RVOL on QQQ is being slightly more elevated today. We started at 1.6 and currently at 1.1 so I’m thinking this move is more legit and convincing since it has been steady green so far. I checked and on Nov 6 we had an RVOL of 1.24 that’s when we started pushing deeply overbought on the hourly.
My question would be is what are we looking for as far as today goes to change the current forecast of having another retest of 500? Where should we close by and what RSI?
Also on the flip side if we do a double top here. Does that set up a correction more than a pull back?
So there’s no real or specific price or RSI. We just need to see it expands as close to an 80-RSI as possible and for a longer duration. If the RSI doesn’t really expand, then we’re just forming negative divergence relative to mid-November. We hit the mid-November highs on very heavy volume and high RSI. While we don’t need the RSI to match what we saw in November, we do need a strong showing.
Double-top isn’t really in play unless the QQQ drops and loses the $494 level after having reached $516 today.
As we noted in the Current Outlook, the QQQ is basically due for a correction any day now. From a time perspective, we’re already in that zone. By mid-january, we’ll be at the high end of the range in terms of time cycle. Price-cycle wise, depending on where we’re counting from, this rally is either on the smaller side or just in-line with previous big moves.
If we’re counting from the August lows, then the QQQ is up 22%. If we’re counting from September — which is what the arbitrary rules sort of suggest — then the QQQ is only up 15.3% from its previous lows. That’s still in-line historically, but a very small rally as this bull market is concerned.
Hopefully there isn’t a melt up situation for prolonged periods into mid-2025 but even if there is one it would be awesome if it started post a intermediate term correction by mid-January so we can start long portfolios in the melt-up. Yes I think it was the right move to wait on the Targaryen Portfolio seems the buy point was at 132 or 133 and there wasn’t much time before it went back to 135.
So far, the evidence points to no. Melt-up rallies are usually done on much lower volume, much lower volatility and much lower average daily returns. The average returns are closer to like 0.18-0.20%. We’re at 0.30-0.35%. It’s at the lower end of the range, but we’re not in melt-up territory.
Just to give you a sense of how low the volatility is, a big correction in a melt-up situation is 5%. you don’t get no 3-4% pull-backs. In fact, the big thing during the melt-up is the lack of 2% pull-backs on the S&P.
So not quite there yet. We’re still trading within the normal high octane range.
I wish I had 10k to spare! Unfortunately, I’ve got more like 1k, haha.
I just saw a post on Reddit that said billion of dollars of NVDA were exchanged in this after-hours. Significant volume.
Are you talking about that 1.8 billion dollars after hours?