Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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I know we’re not supposed to bet against the market, but I paper traded this morning at 9:40 QQQ put 524 Dec 13. It was around 2.60$ per contract when I studied the trade but got it at 3.52 $/contract in paper trade. It’s up 30% with a target of 300% at QQQ=510.
Better to paper trade than to risk it for real :/ That’s how I cure my trade itch.
Good idea with the paper trade. Scratch that itch lol.
Betting against the market is a horrible idea generally speaking. I’m going to do a writing on this topic soon in Chapter 6 and partly in the Strategy section.
Even getting into the bearish mindset is dangerous. That’s because there’s always a strong reason to bet against the market and it never pans out.
A major bearish argument can be made virtually every single day in the market’s history. While eventually the market will have an occasional crash or bear market, in the overwhelming majority of the time, it just grinds higher.
It’s better to be long and hedged against the risk of a crash than to take short positions.
That’s kind of our stance. Can a short trade be made here? Sure. But the risk asymmetrical. It’s not the same as going long oversold.
Today’s pull-back could be ahead fake and the QQQ can run up for a second full overbought cycle. That rarely ever happens on the downside.
See 3:40 PM update.
Take a look. Here’s the $125/$135 call-spread which I can put in an order at $4.90 mid. This is after hours where the bid-ask spread has widened . When I wrote this, I was watching the spreads live.
Notice if you can buy it at $4.90 or even $5.00, it’s worth $10 at expiration = 100% return.
Here’s the $145-$155 call-spread trading at a $3.70 mid-price. Again, bid/ask spread in after hours widens. During regular trading hours, the bid-ask spread is tight. Within 0.20 to 0.30. Look it up during regular hours.