Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
Please login to view this page.
Hey Sam,
What do you think are the reasons for these cycles of pullbacks at certain somewhat regular intervals?
Is it somewhat of a selffulfilling prophecy of market participants?
I mean I get that the market can’t go up all the time, I’m just surprised that something as huge as the market without anybody governing it, behaves in these regular patterns.
There’s no way to know for certain but I believe it’s a variety of factors.
A major Part of it is self fulfilling. I’m not the only person out there recognizing these patterns. Far from it. Others are as well as well and are acting on it.
Part of it is due to algorithmic trading which automates the process of buying and selling.
Part is due to a cycle of short-term profit taking and opportunity creation.
But ultimately I think a big part of it is due to human behavioral patterns which are very repetitive.
Hello. Any thoughts about Apple? It looks to be over brought and will go down soon. Unless I’m missing something? Thanks
Yeah we posted about it a a few days ago. Apple reached deeply overbought territory along with the rest of tech and is due to pullback. Apple trends to rally big time between July and January and then generally sustains a big correction during the first half of the year.
If there is no final segmented rally and the 3-4% pullback actually leads to the correction, will there still be opportunities for oversold rebounds, i.e it won’t be a straight 10% down? I remember in a previous post analyzing historical market corrections, you mentioned that even during corrections, the bounces off oversold conditions can still be huge.
There definitely well. But they might be short lived and a little more dangerous. But there definitely are big rebounds on the way down.
So today’s intraday rebound invalidated the reversal idea. But the overall analysis is still very much in tact for all the reasons we outlined. The QQQ is due for a 3-4% pullback any day now.