Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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How about having RXRX on the watchlist?
RXRX is still in the small-cap category, they don’t really have any revenue yet, but their AI platform for drug discovery has the potential to become the AI of all pharma companies.
It has been in sort-of-a long consolidation for quite some time, trading sideways with significant amplitude.
Further details https://intenxedd.gitbook.io/intenxes-dd/the-usdrxrx-thesis
So Baratheon is a trading portfolio mostly looking to trade immediate momentum. We can’t trade everything.
I think RXRX would be better suited a type of portfolio that considerate speculative upside.
So for example, as we noted a few weeks back, buying ALL of the QC plays. At least one or two is likely to breakout so big that it will off-set any losses sustained in the others. And that is already happened since we talked about it. I think one of them is up like 100% since we opened a discussion on it.
RXRX would better fit into that type of a portfolio allocation.
What about Nvidia?
I posted an update for Nvidia. Not a lot has changed. The stock continues to be bullish and held back by the market. Not far from a breakout.
Thanks Sam!
Hi Sam, is an update coming now that the QQQ is down $10?
See 1pm update.
What you think about MSFT it’s almost bottom in my option but seems not even in your watchlist , would love to see chart analysis for Msft in your post for short term traders.
So we wouldn’t buy anything until the correction ends because nothing is really near a bottom until the entire market is at a bottom. So far, the QQQ is only 5.5% from its all time highs. That’s barely even half-way in a standard correction.
And we haven’t started one yet. we’re still in the high volatility phase. Microsoft lost support today at $429 and its next support level is $410. It did reach a little oversold today so we could see a bounce for a bit. It might retake support.
But in a full correction on the QQQ, Microsoft easily gets down to $409 or below again.
Thanks for the strategy update.
“The threshold is either (1) oversold on the daily chart; or (2) down 7.5% from the previous highs. We get oversold or a 7.5% correction, we can start buying for the Stark and Frey portfolios.“
Hey Sam, so here do you mean oversold on the hourly or oversold on the daily? Also, do the previous highs here refer to 539 or 531?
So to buy on long-term portfolios, our strategy is to buy near the lows of a correction. The lows of a correction generally happen once the market is down at least 7-8% from its all-time highs or highs before the sell-offs started. That would be $539.16.
Oversold on the DAILY is also a big indicator. We want to see the daily chart get down to around a 30-RSI. Those are generally big signs for a bottom.
Also, corrections generally last about 20-days. So that’s another good indication.
Any sort of priority watches for the most conservative Tyrell portfolio? (Non-options, common stock)
That will largely depend on what is oversold once we get to the lows. We’re opportunistic here. So if any of the big tech stocks are oversold or down significantly from there highs for no good reason, then we’ll buy those. We’ll have an idea as soon as we get closer to the lows.
Please see 1:00 PM Post.
I saw on TradingView that on the hourly chart, QQQ grazed 20.40 RSI this morning. What do you look at to determine whether a symbol is oversold on the hourly chart? Is it oversold if it touches 20? Does it need to stay below for some time?
Thanks!
Angela is that in regular or extended session? In extended session I see hourly RSI dropped to 20 at 9am. However in regular session it remained close in high 30s.
Sam when you say RSI in low 20s as oversold, is that only for regular session?
Regular trading hours is all that matters when it comes to technicals. Even breakouts above key resistance levels. that only matters if the stock ultimately opens above that key breakout point.
Overbought and oversold indicators like RSI, NYMO, MACD and others are exclusively regular hours. I don’t even look at the RSI in extended trading as it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t impact the direction. We need that to occur in regular trading.
It depends on the settings of your RSI. I also use TradingView to chart. My chart clocked in an RSI of 32.40 at the open today. Also make sure you have it set to regular trading hours if you have after hours I noticed this skews the RSI heavily. Now compare it to the RSI on the 18th until the 20th, that would be oversold (attached an image). Technically anything over 30 is considered oversold. From what I gather the lower the RSI and the more extended we trade at this extreme (20 RSI), the more probable a bounce will occur. Using an analogy think of it like the car started speeding so much its about to run out of gas/energy (in this case the sellers/bears) so the buyers can now more easily take control. The heavier the volume and price movement in the shorter amount of time will impact RSI. Notice on the 18th the massive spike in RVOL and compare it today which is probably half the volume; hence Sam’s comment about volatility on lower volume a lot of indecision.
Thanks for the tip on the chart settings.
Please see 6:30 PM post update.