Samwise Dashboard
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. By clicking the menu, you’ll have quick access to shortcuts for all of our Samwise Model Portfolios, the Current Market Outlook, Administrative Announ...
Please login to view this page.
What is the chance NFLX rebounds to 875 by this Friday?
It’s possible. Inflation report would have to go well. What the chances are? That’s a full blown guess. All we can confidentially say about Netflix is that it’s nearing oversold conditions on the daily chart and likely going to rally pretty solidly once it bottoms out. Once it reaches its low point, it likely then rallies 10-15 sessions up to $950+ or something like that. History has shown us that Netflix will rally a solid $130-$140 off of oversold conditions.
Do you think earnings could impact that, given that Netflix reports earnings in 8 days?
So Netflix’s earnings could cause it to begin rallying early or it can push it into more deeply oversold territory. The oversold part doesn’t go away if Netflix negatively reacts to earnings. The set-up is still there.
Earnings is often a near-term catalyst unless there’s some broad fundamental impact. But that’s rare from a single earnings report. In most cases, the market either positively reacts to positive earnings or negatively reacts to negative earnings and those reactions are generally short-lived.
Ya seems like it’s why there isn’t a strong bounce already could be another positive news and sell off or like warm news and strong buying.
So I think the way the market is trading into the results will impact how it trade after the results. The results are one thing and how the market trades is another thing entirely. Those are two different things. Market can easily rally on bad results and sell-off on good results. I think what will determine each is how we trade into it.
The market looks like it’s selling off into the results which means we could easily see a strong rally post results.
There’s the issue of opportunity risk we have to address. that’s what today is about. With the QQQ at $499-$500, the entire market NASDAQ-100 is now down 7% from its highs. $38/$538 = 7.06%. SO it’s actually more than 7% if you calculate from the actual high to low point.
At that point, there’s risk of a market bottom. Hence why we have half positions. If the market rolls over, we buy more. If the market rallies, at least we’re not sitting in 100% cash in the new portfolios. That’s the way to sort of approach it.
Where are you at on the trades?
Were you able to fill the AAPL 230 call at 13.00?
Do you have any other fill orders in place?
Aside from the Baratheon March 130 NVDA calls, that is.
Nothing yet. If we execute a trade, we’ll send it out a trade alert for the model portfolios.
Okay, thanks. That’s what I assumed, but I was able to fill at 13.00 on the AAPL 230 call, so I was just curious if I was alone in that.
So yeah there were definitely fills at $13.00. The problem for me and for the model portfolios is even if I get a trade fill, it doesn’t work if I don’t send out the alert on time and if the widow doesn’t stay open.
Model portfolio trades work a little differently. Not only do we have to execute the trades, we have to have large enough windows for them to be meaningful.
And the $13 fill widow just wasn’t wide enough.
it only lasted for minutes.
Ideally, the stock drifts lower after we put on a trade. If it immediately skyrocket, then it’s sort of useless.
So right now while there may have been some fills at 13, there’s no trade in Baratheon at the current moment
Makes sense, thanks
The SPY election gap has been filled Jan 13.
Possibly. It really depends on the circumstances. What we need to do in Arryn at least and maybe in lannister is rethink our entire hedge. Our hedges were designed to protect our initial capital investment. And that’s what they do. The portfolios started at $100k and we’d stay north of that in a massive crash. They’d protect our original capital investment.
But what they won’t do is preserve our gains. With Arryn up 70%, we need to re-establish new hedges to protect our profits now. There comes a point where we need to rethink the overall capital preservation. I think at 70% up we reform hedges.
In that sense, we may sell covered puts against our put positions with teh aim of covering closing out the puts entirely on the next rally up and then using the opportunity to buy new hedges altogether.
Hi Sam, if you had filled the April $230 Apple call yesterday would you continue to hold. That call would be up about 27%
So suppose we were able to fill on the April $230 calls yesterday. If that happened, what we’d do is close out the March calls today or tomorrow at $8.60+ and then just continue to hold the April calls. That would put us in a very strong position. Then if Apple pulls back, we’d add a little capital and buy a second April call.
That’s how we’d do it if Baratheon had been able to buy the April $230’s yesterday. We’d have likely closed out the March call today and/or tomorrow. Then we’d just hold the April’s and potentially sell weeklies against the Aprils. Market pulls back again and if Apple retests its lows, we’d add to the April postion such that we’d own 2 contracts in April. That’s how we’d do it.
Then with April, we’d hold that position until Apple retests its highs at $260 and we’d selectively sell weeklies until that point. It’s a strong place to be.