
The Core Long-Term Model Portfolios
Sam Weiss launches and manages a brand new model portfolio each time the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) sustains an 8-12% market correction from its peak. This allows us to fully implement our strategy in real time, for all subscribers, regardless of when they join. If we only managed a single portfolio launched 6-months ago, newer subscribers who weren’t there at the time we launched would be perpetually behind. A portfolio we launched in August has little relevance to a subscriber joining in January.
In fact, we actually launch TWO (2) new portfolios each time the market sustains a correction. We launch a regular common stock portfolio, and an options version of that same portfolio. To date, we have launched SIX (6) Core LT Model Portfolios over three separate corrections that occurred in August 2024, September 2024 and January 2025.
Each Core Long-Term (LT) Model Portfolio starts off with $100,000.00 in capital and strictly adhere to the Samwise Strategy and Samwise Rules of Investing. To get a more in-depth understanding of our Model Portfolios, it is highly recommended that you visit the full Model Portfolios section of the website. Our Core LT Model Portfolios are listed below for easy access. We make the trades for these portfolios live, during market hours and in the Daily Briefing. You can find every trade we’ve ever made by clicking the button below, or feel free to visit the model portfolio’s page to learn more.
Subscriber Tip: Many veteran subscribers will tell you that the value in Sam Weiss is in observing the how we manage our model portfolios, the timing of our trades and the effectiveness of our hedges. There’s a reason we started the dashboard outlining the Model Portfolios.
Samwise Core Long-Term (LT) Model Portfolios
Arryn Portfolio
Arryn Launch Date
August 5, 2024
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ June 17, 2027 $600 Calls | LONG | $106.27 | $152.25 | 3 | $31,881.00 | $45,675.00 | $13,794.00 (+43.27%) |
| QQQ Jan. 21, 2028 $550 Calls | LONG | $100.43 | $215.00 | 4 | $40,172.00 | $86,000.00 | $45,828.00 (+114.08%) |
| QQQ Mar. 19, 2027 $650 Puts | LONG | $25.81 | $16.10 | 15 | $38,715.00 | $24,150.00 | -$14,565.00 (-37.62%) |
| QQQ Mar. 19, 2027 $700 Puts | LONG | $24.30 | $28.18 | 5 | $12,150.00 | $14,090.00 | $1,940.00 (+15.97%) |
| MSFT Jan. 21, 2028 $400 Calls | LONG | $57.57 | $169.55 | 3 | $17,271.00 | $50,865.00 | $33,594.00 (+194.51%) |
| MSFT Jan. 15, 2027 $500 Puts | LONG | $15.90 | $14.83 | 3 | $4,770.00 | $4,449.00 | -$321.00 (-6.73%) |
| MSFT Jan. 15, 2027 $600 Calls | SHORT | $10.90 | $7.80 | 3 | -$3,270.00 | -$2,340.00 | $930.00 (+28.44%) |
| MU Jan. 15, 2027 $1,100 Calls | LONG | $95.90 | $31.60 | 3 | $28,770.00 | $9,480.00 | -$19,290.00 (-67.05%) |
| MU Jan. 15, 2027 $1,200 Calls | SHORT | $78.90 | $17.70 | 3 | -$23,670.00 | -$5,310.00 | $18,360.00 (+77.57%) |
| SNDK Mar. 19, 2027 $1900 Calls | LONG | $108.98 | $94.33 | 10 | $108,980.00 | $94,330.00 | -$14,650.00 (-13.44%) |
| SNDK Mar. 19, 2027 $2000 Calls | SHORT | $91.92 | $77.65 | 10 | -$91,920.00 | -$77,650.00 | $14,270.00 (+15.52%) |
| QQQ Jan. 21, 2028 $700 Calls | LONG | $103.67 | $105.00 | 3 | $31,101.00 | $31,500.00 | $399.00 (+1.28%) |
| CASH | – | – | – | – | -$94,950.00 | $20,130.00 | $115,080.00 (+121.20%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $100,000.00 | $295,369.00 | $195,369.00 (+195.37%) |
Tarly Portfolio
tarly Launch Date
August 5, 2024
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | LONG | $100.00 | $216.63 | 200 | $20,000.00 | $43,326.00 | $23,326.00 (+116.63%) |
| QQQ | LONG | $637.84 | $717.81 | 150 | $95,676.00 | $107,672.00 | $11,995.50 (+12.54%) |
| MSFT | LONG | $372.50 | $531.12 | 40 | $14,900.00 | $21,244.60 | $6,344.60 (+42.58%) |
| QQQ June 2027 $550 Puts | LONG | $27.70 | $9.18 | 1 | $2,770.00 | $918.00 | -$1,852.00 (-66.86%) |
| NVDA June 2027 $150 Puts | LONG | $12.80 | $4.13 | 2 | $2,560.00 | $826.00 | -$1,734.00 (-67.73%) |
| CASH | – | – | – | – | -$35,906.00 | $391.00 | $36,297.00 (+101.09%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $100,000.00 | $174,377.60 | $74,377.10 (+74.38%) |
Lannister Portfolio
Lannister Launch Date:
September 4, 2024
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ June 17, 2027 $600 Calls | LONG | $87.03 | $152.25 | 5 | $43,515.00 | $76,125.00 | $32,610.00 (+74.94%) |
| QQQ Jan. 21, 2028 $550 Calls | LONG | $100.73 | $215.00 | 1 | $10,073.00 | $21,500.00 | $11,427.00 (+113.44%) |
| QQQ Mar. 19, 2027 $650 Puts | LONG | $25.90 | $16.10 | 11 | $28,490.00 | $17,710.00 | -$10,780.00 (-37.84%) |
| QQQ Mar. 19, 2027 $700 Puts | LONG | $24.30 | $28.18 | 4 | $9,720.00 | $11,272.00 | $1,552.00 (+15.97%) |
| MSFT Jan. 21, 2028 $400 Calls | LONG | $57.70 | $169.55 | 2 | $11,540.00 | $33,910.00 | $22,370.00 (+193.85%) |
| MSFT Jan. 15, 2027 $500 Puts | LONG | $15.90 | $14.83 | 2 | $3,180.00 | $2,966.00 | -$214.00 (-6.73%) |
| MSFT Jan. 15, 2027 $600 Calls | SHORT | $10.90 | $7.80 | 2 | -$2,180.00 | -$1,560.00 | $620.00 (+28.44%) |
| MU Jan. 15, 2027 $1,100 Calls | LONG | $95.90 | $31.60 | 2 | $19,180.00 | $6,320.00 | -$12,860.00 (-67.05%) |
| MU Jan. 15, 2027 $1,200 Calls | SHORT | $78.90 | $17.70 | 2 | -$15,780.00 | -$3,540.00 | $12,240.00 (+77.57%) |
| SNDK Mar. 19, 2027 $1900 Calls | LONG | $107.57 | $94.33 | 9 | $96,813.00 | $84,897.00 | -$11,916.00 (-12.31%) |
| SNDK Mar. 19, 2027 $2000 Calls | SHORT | $90.70 | $77.65 | 9 | -$81,630.00 | -$69,885.00 | $11,745.00 (+14.39%) |
| QQQ Jan. 21, 2028 $700 Calls | LONG | $103.00 | $105.00 | 3 | $30,900.00 | $31,500.00 | $600.00 (+1.94%) |
| CASH | – | – | – | – | -$53,821.00 | $20,514.00 | $74,335.00 (+138.12%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $100,000.00 | $231,729.00 | $131,729.00 (+131.73%) |
Tyrell Portfolio
Tyrell Launch Date
September 4, 2024
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | LONG | $103.70 | $216.63 | 200 | $20,740.00 | $43,326.00 | $22,586.00 (+108.90%) |
| QQQ | LONG | $646.68 | $717.81 | 130 | $84,068.40 | $93,315.30 | $9,246.90 (+11.00%) |
| MSFT | LONG | $372.50 | $531.12 | 35 | $13,037.50 | $18,589.00 | $5,551.52 (+42.58%) |
| QQQ June 2027 $550 Puts | LONG | $27.60 | $9.18 | 1 | $2,760.00 | $918.00 | -$1,842.00 (-66.74%) |
| NVDA June 2027 $150 Puts | LONG | $12.75 | $4.13 | 2 | $2,550.00 | $826.00 | -$1,724.00 (-67.61%) |
| CASH | – | – | – | – | -$23,155.90 | $2,020.10 | $25,176.00 (+108.72%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $100,000.00 | $158,994.40 | $58,994.42 (+58.99%) |
Stark Portfolio
Stark Launch Date
January 1, 2025
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ June 17, 2027 $600 Calls | LONG | $99.42 | $152.25 | 2 | $19,884.00 | $30,450.00 | $10,566.00 (+53.14%) |
| QQQ Jan. 21, 2028 $550 Calls | LONG | $99.21 | $215.00 | 2 | $19,842.00 | $43,000.00 | $23,158.00 (+116.71%) |
| QQQ Mar. 19, 2026 $650 Puts | LONG | $26.09 | $16.10 | 7 | $18,263.00 | $11,270.00 | -$6,993.00 (-38.29%) |
| QQQ Mar. 19, 2027 $700 Puts | LONG | $24.30 | $28.18 | 3 | $7,290.00 | $8,454.00 | $1,164.00 (+15.97%) |
| MSFT Jan. 21, 2028 $400 Calls | LONG | $57.70 | $169.55 | 1 | $5,770.00 | $16,955.00 | $11,185.00 (+193.85%) |
| MSFT Jan. 15, 2027 $500 Puts | LONG | $15.90 | $14.83 | 1 | $1,590.00 | $1,483.00 | -$107.00 (-6.73%) |
| MSFT Jan. 15, 2027 $600 Calls | SHORT | $10.90 | $7.80 | 1 | -$1,090.00 | -$780.00 | $310.00 (+28.44%) |
| MU Jan. 15, 2027 $1,100 Calls | LONG | $95.90 | $31.60 | 2 | $19,180.00 | $6,320.00 | -$12,860.00 (-67.05%) |
| MU Jan. 15, 2027 $1,200 Calls | SHORT | $78.90 | $17.70 | 2 | -$15,780.00 | -$3,540.00 | $12,240.00 (+77.57%) |
| SNDK Mar. 19, 2027 $1900 Calls | LONG | $100.51 | $94.33 | 8 | $80,408.00 | $75,464.00 | -$4,944.00 (-6.15%) |
| SNDK Mar. 19, 2027 $2000 Calls | SHORT | $84.61 | $77.65 | 8 | -$67,688.00 | -$62,120.00 | $5,568.00 (+8.23%) |
| QQQ Jan. 21, 2028 $700 Calls | LONG | $104.50 | $105.00 | 2 | $20,900.00 | $21,000.00 | $100.00 (+0.48%) |
| CASH | – | – | – | – | -$8,569.00 | $6,578.00 | $15,147.00 (+176.77%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $100,000.00 | $154,534.00 | $54,534.00 (+54.53%) |
Frey Portfolio
Frey Launch Date
January 1, 2025
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | LONG | $122.74 | $216.66 | 100 | $12,274.00 | $21,666.00 | $9,392.00 (+76.52%) |
| QQQ | LONG | $650.48 | $717.81 | 123 | $80,009.00 | $88,290.60 | $8,281.63 (+10.35%) |
| MSFT | LONG | $372.50 | $531.12 | 32 | $11,920.00 | $16,995.70 | $5,075.68 (+42.58%) |
| QQQ June 2027 $550 Puts | LONG | $27.60 | $9.18 | 1 | $2,760.00 | $918.00 | -$1,842.00 (-66.74%) |
| NVDA June 2027 $150 Puts | LONG | $12.75 | $4.13 | 1 | $1,275.00 | $413.00 | -$862.00 (-67.61%) |
| CASH | – | – | – | – | -$7,238.00 | $15,471.00 | $22,709.00 (+313.75%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $101,000.00 | $143,754.30 | $42,754.31 (+42.33%) |
the Smaller Trading Portfolio
Sam Weiss also manages Two (2) SMALL high-risk trading portfolios that do not adhere to the Samwise Strategy and/or the Rules of Investing. These are short-term option-based trading portfolios that represent a very small portion of the larger Core LT Model Portfolios. The Targaryen Portfolio launched with $5,000.00 and the
Baratheon Portfolio started off with $10,000. That represents a mere 5% and 10% allocation relative to the Core LT Models which launched with $100,000 each.
That should indicate just how much risk is involved with the trading models. In fact, we view the trading portfolios as being singular assets or line items in each of the larger Core LT Model Portfolios. Each of the LT Model Portfolios can be viewed as $115,000 allocations split between $100k invested in long-term holdings and $15k invested in short-term trading. It is critically important to keep things in perspective when observing trades made in each of the trading portfolios. Our two Trading Portfolios are listed below for easy access.
Subscriber Tip: We spend the overwhelming majority of our time on the trading portfolios even though they only make up a very small portion of our overall allocation. That is because long-term portfolios require far less activate management than do short-term trading portfolios which are based on short-term fluctuations in the market. As such we now have a dedicated month-long briefing on our long-term portfolios with its own updates.
Samwise Trading Portfolios
Targaryen Portfolio
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASH | – | – | – | – | $5,000.00 | $699.50 | -$4,300.50 (-86.01%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $5,000.00 | $699.50 | -$4,300.50 (-86.01%) |
Baratheon Portfolio
| Ticker | Position | Average Price | Current Price | Qty | Cost Basis | Market Value | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASH | – | – | – | – | $10,000.00 | $1,992.00 | -$8,008.00 (-80.08%) |
| Totals: | – | – | – | – | $10,000.00 | $1,992.00 | -$8,008.00 (-80.08%) |
Trade alerts & Notifications
Sam Weiss publishes his trades live in the Daily Briefing during the trading sessions. Typically, what we do is publish a separate small article each time we make a trade and that article acts as a time-stamped “trade ticket” containing the details about the trade. It details the portfolio for which we have made the trade, the particular stock or option we have traded, the allocation percentage relative to the current market value of the entire portfolio and the total cost expended or cash generated from the trade. The Trade is also published on our dedicated Trade sheet which contains every trade we’ve ever made in chronological order.
Immediately after executing the trade, Sam sends out an e-mail, text alert, tweet, and Push Notification via the Sam Weiss iOS/Android Mobile App. You can find out how to receive notifications by visiting the notifications page.
The Basic Long-term investment Strategy
You can find a full description and breakdown of our strategy by visiting the “Strategy” section of the website or clicking the link below. Here is the most tl;dr basic outline of our long-term strategy. This is investment strategy we employ in the Core LT Model Portfolios we outlined above.
At the most basic level, what we do here at Sam Weiss is wait for a stock market correction to occur, wait for stocks to reach extremely oversold conditions and then we step in and buy for our new portfolios. We then wait for a rebound to then purchase a hedge for those positions. Why does this strategy work? Because even in crashes and in bear markets, the indices will sustain massive rebounds upon reaching oversold conditions. In the 2022 bear market, for example, the NASDAQ-100 had five separate bear market rallies ranging from 12-25% each.
Once we’re long and hedged, we remain long and hedged. Our core long-term strategy is to remain long the market at all times. You can find the reasoning for that in Chapter 1 of investing basics. The skinny of it is this. True generational level of wealth in the stock market is produced by getting long and remaining long over several years and even decades. After getting long, our job is to constantly asses the portfolio for any sort of risk vulnerabilities. We perform these operations in our Daily Briefing.
We never remove our hedges once they’re put on due to the ongoing existential risk of a bear market. It is the quality of the downside hedge that allows us to remain long at all times.
the Types of stocks & Options we buy (Hi-Pro)
Nearly every trading session, someone asks us what we think of X-stock or Y-option. Generally speaking, we’ll post a replay and even publish some technicals covering those stocks and other assets our subscribers have asked us about. We’re happy to continue doing so. Sometimes we even get an idea or two from and may even trade on those requests.
But if you want to get an in-depth understanding about the stocks and options we buy, please read the High-Pro Strategy found in the Samwise Strategy section of the website. The High-Pro Strategy page precisely outlines the types of assets we buy for our Long-Term Model Portfolios and why we choose to do so.
The skinny of it is this. While many investors believe that in order to make any real money in the market, it is essential for them to find the next big explosive stock, Sam Weiss has moved completely away from that type of thinking or strategy. We stopped chasing the speculative “next big thing” type of trade. We no longer look for the next Nvidia, Palantir, Bitcoin or Apple. Instead, what we do here is this.
We focus on trading blue chip stocks and ETFs that trade in very predictable patterns. By investing in stocks with well-defined business models and establish growth curves, we can more readily forecast the future direction of these assets. We then employ carefully crafted call option strategies to leverage these stable assets and produce returns commensurate with the types of returns generated by speculative “next big thing” type of stocks.
For example, while the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) rallied a mere 23% between August 2024 and December 2024, we were able to produce a greater than 96% return over the period by simply buying and holding the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) December 2026 $430 Call-Options. This generated 4x the leverage compared to simply holding the QQQ ETF without borrowing capital or otherwise using brokerage margin.
The NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) & The 55% Allocation
As a general rule, our Core LT Model Portfolios — new and old alike — will always allocate 55% of our capital to the NASDAQ-100 Invesco ETF (QQQ). We do this to meet diversification requirements. By being long the QQQ, we hedge out company risk through diversification. The NASDAQ-100 is inherently well diversified with the tech sector.
We then allocate roughly 35-40% into a handful of other stocks we believe has a high chance of outperforming over the next 2-years based on their current value relative to other stocks and relative to the NASDAQ-100. Our remaining allocation is reserved for hedging.
the basic Baratheon Trading Strategy
We still haven’t published a fully detailed page outlining our approach to trading in the Baratheon Portfolio. The closet thing we’ve written about our trading strategy can be found in an article we published outlining our general thoughts on risk and how brokers can actually limit the tools traders have to manage that risk. The article is entitled, Chapter 3: Risk Management & Brokerage Limitations.
We’ll soon address this topic in a dedicated page in the Strategy section of the website. Here is the basic “summarized” version of that strategy. The trading strategy is a contrarian strategy in the sense that we buy while a stock is in a downtrend on the expectation that it will soon bottom and go in the other direction. Hence. the contrarian approach to trading.
Now at its core, our strategy involves buying near-term expiring call-options only once the underlying stock we’re targeting reaches extremely oversold conditions. We generally buy a roughly 10% portfolio position with the expectation of potentially raising that allocation to as high as 25% if the stock continues to drop. We might buy a second and third position but limit the entire trade to 25% maximum.
In most cases, our trades end up working out immediately after entry. That is because most high quality stocks will rebound off of oversold conditions in the overwhelming majority of the cases. But there are instances where that doesn’t happen. There are cases where stocks will reach extremely oversold conditions, sustain a tiny rebound and then go on to sustain a second or third instance of oversold.
Here’s how we address this. We generally wait a long time before making a second entry into the trade. It takes a lot of additional selling for us to dollar cost-average and we generally wait for a second instance of oversold conditions first.
If we do make a second entry, then in most cases, the stock will rebound significantly after its second instance of oversold conditions. This gives us the ability to exit the FIRST entry. Sometimes we take a small gain on the first entry, sometimes a slight loss. In most cases where a second leg lower occurs after entry, we’re able to exit the first position cleanly. That puts us back to a 10% allocation and deep in the green on the second entry.
If the stock continues to rally from there, then we close out the second entry successfully and all good. If it goes lower toward a third instance of oversold, we repeat the initial process buying second position, wait for rebound and close out the first.