Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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Amazon looking tasty!
It is. It’s probably the best overall set-up at the moment. It’s oversold on the hourly. Strong heading to the downside. So it’s getting there. At a 27.35 RSI on the hourly, it’s getting very close to a good 1st entry.
Getting close to 30 RSI on the daily chart. If it reaches 30 it would be pretty solid i think? Although the recent action with other MAG 7’s (MSFT and GOOGL) makes me feel more cautious.
new-ish member here – really enjoying your analysis, comments, answers, and the new app is great
Thanks Alf! Much appreciated. Hope you find your membership useful.
Hi Sam,
So I have some issues with getting approval from Fidelity to trade more advanced options which is impeding my ability to do call spreads. Can you suggest an alternative until I resolve this? Is it ok to do just pure calls? Obviously that would increases the risk
Getting options approval is always tricky. There’s ways to get it done. Reddit might be very helpful on the topic.
Calls don’t work in a lot of situations. For example, the Tesla trade we just made can’t be done with calls. Notice how Targaryen is up 55% at a fraction of the trades made in Baratheon (up 40%). That’s all from call-spreads.
The problem with broker alternatives (not sure if you meant broker or trading strategy) is that it does’t fix the legal issues. if you set up your account the same way at any other broker, you’ll get the same result.
I personally love my broker. But not because of the broker, mostly because of the tools. I’ve been with TD Ameritrade for decades. I had accounts there before they were even called Ameritrade. Thinkorswim platform is solid. Ameritrade is now owned by Charles Schwab. Can’t really speak to Schwab’s competency as I don’t really interact with them all that often. But as they now own thinkorswim, that’s where I’m at.
Personally, I’ve found ToS to be almost as strong as Bloomberg Terminal (minus the networking) or any of the prime broker applications — I’ve tried in-house apps from Goldman, JP Morgan, Jeffries and others. I’ve actually found the prime’s to have really weak applications. Definitely weaker than what we have at Ameritrade.
Anyway, Schwab is good. But again, all brokers are going to take the same CYA perspective on things.
I meant call spread alternative. But the brokerage info is very helpful too. I see you have already provided a 2x ETF as an alternative. This is very helpful because I simply cannot open call spreads at the moment. I went ahead with TSLR for the two position today
Sam，where did you recommend a 2x ETF asan alternative to a spread? I might have missed it. thx
“ Tesla can only be traded with spreads or any 2x ETFs if they exist. We wouldn’t buy calls on Tesla given the high volatility and extra high premium. That trades I coming up soon.”
Under “Tesla (TSLA) May 16, 2025 $360-$380 call-Spread at Around $6.00”
TSLA approaching oversold? Whats the target price you’re looking for?
We’re looking for TSLA to reach ovresold conditions. There’s not a specific price. It’s more how oversold is the stock. It’s not there yet.
Really, we’d like to see it push down toward a 20-RSI again if possible.
I hate to waste your time with outside inquiries, but maybe since it’s a slow Friday. I have a large TSM position, that I feel makes my NVDA position overweight. What do your charts say? If you have time?
Hi Chris — so I don’t know anything about TSM. Also, as forecasting confidence is concerned, we have the highest confidence when stocks are both fundamentally sound AND reach oversold conditions. That’s the holy grail of set-ups. Kind of like what we had with Nvidia a few weeks back. When a stock reaches oversold and is fundamentally sound, then we know with a high degree of certainty that the stock is going to rebound big time.
So with that in mind, TSM is not oversold and I don’t know anytime about the company. That being said, while it’s not oversold, it is forming a falling wedge which is bullish. Now chart patterns are weaker as a forecasting too than are momentum indicators. In my opinion, it’s overbought/oversold > momentum indications > support levels > chart patterns.
We have a bullish chart pattern set-up on TSM. Low to moderate forecasting confidence:
They are the manufacturer of NVDA chips. Thank you for taking the time. I really appreciate it. Wow I missed a street fight on Friday! Looking forward to your Steady Sam Sunday night post.
Reddit is down quite significantly today as well, though I don’t know much about it in terms of valuation etc.
We’re probably going to look to buy it soon. It’s really oversold and now down 30% form its highs. But we’ll probably buy a smaller position and it’ll be common stock. RDDT is a high momentum stock when it gets going.
Mid-20’s would be a good set-up for sure. It’s at a 30.85-RSI right now. It’s on our watch-list. The problem with AVGO is that it’s highly correlated with Nvidia.
Are you sitting with a crystal ball there?
was there a trade done??? i had a notification and cant find it
Also had a notification and still can’t find it either, but looking at the daily briefing it was for trade watch only, no trade yet
If look at the Trade list, it’s always immediately there. If a notification goes out, it’s always going to be on the Trade list as the notification attaches to the trade list and the trade tab in the app.
The second a push notification is sent, it copies it pretty verbatim to the trade list.
Yeah every trade made in the last ~30min showed up right away, but i’m almost certain I got a notification from the app for TSLA trade watch, same one Adrian most likely got, and then I couldn’t find any trace of that notification on the app, until I looked at the daily briefing.
Anyways I might very well be wrong, if it happens again i’ll let you know ????????♂️.. i’m commenting too much today????
We did send out a trade watch for Tesla. I kind of wanted to give everybody a heads up. Not sure we will do that anymore given that it will cause confusion.
But there was one push notification that was a trade watch not an actual execution. That was sent out at 1:10 PM EST.
“ We might be buying a Tesla call spread soon in Baratheon and Targaryen. Tesla on trade watch.”
Ohhh i see. Yeah the fact that it only pops up as a notification and then isn’t traceable on the app can make it confusing and cause some panic. Maybe if there was a notification system kind of like facebook where you can track notifications, it wasnt a big issue for me tho because i saw your update in the daily briefing a few minutes later
We’re already working on it. So right now my plug-in is able to take push notifications and copy it into the trade ledger.
The coding to open the push notification to a specific page has been a little tricky though. I’m pretty sure I solved it.
What we’ll probably do is come up with a push notifications page that copies every single thing that we ever send out to a push page that is time stamped.
We’ll probably get that done this week. Maybe this weekend.
Sweet!
This is done. Now when anyone gets a notification, they’ll be taken to a notification page which tells you precisely what was sent out verbatim. Then you can click on the notification which will take you to the relevant page. Trade notifications go to trades and daily briefing notes go there.
Awesome! Don’t you sleep ?????
Sometimes lol. I usually sleep 3-4 hours during the week, build up a sleep deficit and then try to make up for it on the weekends (typically Sunday).
FYI, no app push notifications with the trade alerts. Text just came through as I’m typing this.
I got 4 of the push notifications on my android go through so far.
Maybe double check the more tab, and see if the push notification settings are on for your preferred portfolios.
I also got a recent android update that forced me to restart my phone as well. Wanted to mention that in case it’s a potential variable.
I’d check your notification settings. We have a bunch of a random devices to keep track of it. They’re all firing up. Android and iOS. Also, we check the server logs and they’re shown as all sent.
I got all of them on the app (IOS) and text. I’ve opted in for notifications though, but im not sure that matters yet, since I think Sam said today that we’re still going to get notifications for everything for a while since you must opt in to them
So the only narrow posts we’re sending is daily briefing updates specially. Because it’s so many alerts, we’re only sending those updates to people who specifically opt-in to receive a daily briefing push notification each time we update the blog post.
Everything else is going out to ALL subscribers until everyone’s had time to go through their notification settings.
Like trades are going to everyone regardless of what they select and we’ll probably do that for a few weeks. Then once I’m confident that everyone has subscribed to what they want, we’ll only send out trade alerts for those portfolios people opt-in for.
Sam – worried at all about a larger correction starting now-ish?
Yes. It’s possible. And that’s why we’re taking smaller positions and holding a lot of cash. It’s possible this could be all one big set-up. we’re cognizant of that.
I love how we started the post off with a Slow Friday, and then it’s like the market took that as a personal attack.
Right? The market definitely took that personally
And this was supposed to be a quiet day. Look at it now 🙂
NVDA is near oversold hourly ?
Not yet. It’s getting close. But not quite there yet.
Sam – I know you’re cognizant that a larger correction could start here, but looking to see how you’re personally feeling after this red day. seemed really aggressive for little to no reason. with everything looking quite oversold I’d say I’m optimistic but wanted to get your outlook
Monday will be telling. The QQQ is mildly oversold. It’s a minor pullback in the grand scheme of things. But given how fast it unfold, it could accelerate on Monday. It’s why we’re still very much heavily in cash in the trading portfolios.
No way I could execute the RDDT trade in the last six minutes…
Reddit should be tradable all the way until 8 PM EST.
Options trade 15 minutes after the market closes.
There will be a lot of instances where buying at or near the close of trade or right in after hours makes the most sense. Often the best information is had near the close of trading.
It worked! I didn’t thought about using after-market order as this was added at my broker only 10 days ago. It was my first time, worked perfectly, although I filled at 166.40, well that’s less than a percent off, no big deal.
Hi Sam!
I’ve been using the mobile app more recently and I was wondering if you could add a way to easily scroll all the way to the end of the Daily Briefing (but before the comments). I find myself manually scrolling all the way to the bottom to see what the latest update to the Daily Briefing was. Maybe that’s a bug of the notification? Pressing on it doesn’t bring me to the update.
a drop-down for each update throughout the day would work.
Google docs has a table of contents that automatically add links to headers in a document. I would love to see something like this for the daily briefing!
SW, if you have time to indulge us with one more ticker to analyze, ANET on your radar?
Again ?
Last week Microsoft made quite a buzz with its quantum chip.
It’s pretty advanced science so no wonder almost nobody understands what just happened and what happens in the quantum computing field.
Dr Hossenfelder, a researcher in physics and well known speaker, explains it in this short video.
https://youtu.be/NKYxdzSNqzE?si=1GULVZjqZ6f73aAo
A few weeks ago she also published an opinion on the state of this industry and more specifically it’s impact on the market. I think that anyone contemplating this industry should at least listen.
https://youtu.be/hOYwGttVRDQ?si=R8GGNiGIxFLIkSfP
Trade safely.