Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
Please login to view this page.
Follow-up on Microsoft’s quantum chip.
It turns out that Microsoft has not actually developed a quantum chip—or even a single qubit. The claim that they had a chip originated from media reports, and Microsoft made no effort to correct the misinformation.
Independent scientific reviews suggest that they may not have even measured entanglement at all. As a result, there are calls for their scientific paper to be retracted.
Here’s Dr Hossenfelder’s Science News
https://youtu.be/bJTsFZtD7xE?si=_YNE6vY2gCACTbuA
Trade safely
I’m assuming we’re still expecting another leg down?
So it’s really hard to say whether it will happen. I think it will becuase of how long this one has dragged on. But we’ve seen two instances — March and September — where it was just a single solitary leg and a full blown v-recovery. And the March correction was only a touch smaller than this one is right now.
I think in March the QQQ dropped 8.9% or something along those lines. This one is around 9.9%. I think we’ve reached just short of 10%. So this one isn’t much larger than March.
But I think the way this unfolded points toward a rebound and second leg lower.
Hey Sam, have you been using limit orders recently for Targaryen/Baratheon? if you do is that something you could share with us or can you only send out a trade alert when a trade has been made?
We generally don’t use limit orders because it’s too fluid of a situation. I’ve found limit orders works a lot better with common stock than with options. I generally speaking don’t just let option orders float around out there. Also, it’s hard to gauge exactly what the option prices will be when the QQQ reaches our target.
Like right now. Suppose we want to buy when the QQQ reaches $488 or $487. We don’t know now right now exactly where the spread will trade at those levels. So had to put a limit order out there for that.
we do try to send out trade watches as a heads up.
Hey Sam,
My hourly RSI on the Q’s is showing midpoint-ish already. Are we looking for a mid-line reversion for our bounce?
So we discuss the mid-line in the 12:40 pm post. Not quite sure what you mean by ‘reversion’ in context. We’re very likely to trade well above the mid-line for an extended period of time once the rebound happens.
What would you say is your gut sense of the probability between Situation 1 or Situation 2 right now? It does seem like Situation 2 has become more and more likely as this consolidation is dragging on.
It’s a huge toss up right now. Nothing is leaning in either direction. The rebound will take a long time to unfold if done properly. we’re talking 3-5 full days here.
So it could take time. We could go up $4, down $3, up $8 etc until we get to the peak price.
It’s a toss up. But it’s why it’s important to deploy that 30% cash very seldomly and with the intention of bringing that right back to the sidelines when done.
We’re good either way. If it does roll over down to $480, we probably end up way better off in the end as we’ll likely 2x 30% of our capital or nearly $4k. Our dollar cost average would come down to like $490 at the point and we’d be pretty green at $500.
But if we rally here, that’s fine too. We’ll start layering out probably around $505ish.
Sam. is there anyway you could add time stamps to comments. it would be very helpful. Thanks
Take a look at your comment. Enjoy.
They must be using the app; there are not timestamps on comments in the app.
Ah in the app. Yeah the app is a complex issue. We basically have to completely develop the comment section from the ground up. The App’s comment section is a project for sure.
Once the market correction ends and we start heading into slower market environments, I’ll spend some time on development.
Only thing to keep in mind with the timestamp is that it’s going to be in EST. New York time.
I feel like Art Cashin is looking at me and asking me to sing “Wait til the Sun Shines Nellie”, or is he warning me to get out! This has been painful. RIP Nice choice of photo! Bring us luck Art!
With the expectation of a second leg lower, are you still expecting NVDA to 145 by April 17 ?
Really hard to say because if the market decides it wants to start railing, then it will get there for sure.
Like we’ve already fallen 10% correct? If for any reason, the market decides it’s time for a new intermediate term rally then between now and April 17 Nvidia can be far past 145. No problem.
However, if this correction continues till the end of the month, then probably not.
We will probably get rid of our Nvidia position on the first big Nvidia rally.
There will be a point during this correction when the market rallies pretty significantly for like five days.
It’s either gonna do that or it’s going to bottom and then have its intermediate term rally.
One or the other is gonna happen.
In either case, Nvidia is very likely to rally back to around 130 a share. That’s probably where we get rid of the remaining portion of our positions. Both April positions.
Thanks Sam for your helpful analysis as always. I decided sit this whole correction out and only entered yesterday at around $489. Reading your posts have helped me immensely on entries/exits. Appreciate the level of detail you put in your work!
Hi Sam,
say QQQ did retrace 50% & peaked at 514, then the 2nd leg.
In this scenario, do u think this Nvda rally to 130 is going to occur during the qqq’s 50% retracement?
Bcos It seems to me like there isn’t much room from today’s point to 514
(since Nvda follows the broad market in general)
Hi Sam,
Though I can see the potential effectiveness of the strangle strategy, my investment account doesn’t allow me to do spreads. If you couldn’t trade spreads, how would you play this period of volatility? To reduce the effects of theta, would you just do really ITM puts and really ITM calls at the same time?
Any thoughts on the recent Mstr and bitcoin action? You think bitcoin correction is over or further dip down?
Bitcoin is connected with the stock market. MSTR is recovering because it has taken a riducluos beating. We almost bought it here recently. It was on our watch list.
MSTR is now overbought and likely to pull-back soon unless the market bottoms out completely. Same with bitcoin. If the broad stock market bottoms fully — not just ahead of a rebound — then bitcoin will have bottomed as well.
Hello Sam, can we get an update about TSLA short term? Will there still be a rebound coming or will we see a big second leg lower before any sort of turn happens?
Thanks ahead.
So Tesla is now down 46% and deeply oversold on the daily. We’re waiting for a broad rally. More than something short-term. The rally in Tesla will last several weeks to a few months when it snaps back. We’ve seen this cycle play out a lot in the past. I’ll work on a Tesla table on its boom-bust cycles comparing it to percentage loss, RSI and rebound effect. We’re going to use near-term opportunities to get out of May and then push more into July. Because it will definitely see a larger rally between now and July.
NVDA????