Sam Weiss

As the QQQ rally reaches Day 80 — the danger zone — strong earnings out of MSFT and META has brought some momentum back into the market. But will it last very long? The rally is still approaching maturity at the Day 80-100 zone.

The QQQ is one day shy of reaching the 80-day market for the rally. We’re also approaching earnings seasons and the final day of July. High probability for a market peak in early August.

SPY chart shows late stage DEEPLY overbought conditions confirming what we’ve always suspected. The QQQ is in late stage overbought and likely going to peak fairly soon. We’re nearing the end of the run.

The QQQ rally segment that began in mid-June at $523.65 a share has now extended to 25-sessions. That is the longest single segment without a 2.4% pull-back going back to the lows of 2022.

Segment reaches 24-sessions on Friday, as percentage returns for the entire month of July barely exceeds 2%. We continue to wait patiently for the market to reach an intermediate-term peak.

The current QQQ segmented rally has officially extended to 23-days now. That’s 1 day shy of the record. Gains are in-line with other segments. Overall, very close to a peak based on historical trends.

While the QQQ pulled back sharply to begin yesterday’s session, we’ve seen no follow through whatsoever. If new highs are made, Segment stands at 22-days.

As the Segmented rally extended to day 20, some volatility has finally entered into the market. Time will tell whether we’ll get follow through and begin a near-term pull-back of 3-4%.

The SPY & QQQ having been rallying non-stop for 19-sessions without a pull-back. The record during this bull market is 24-sessions. This is evidence that we should see a peak this week.

The QQQ segment rally is now in-line with the typical range at a peak. At 7.85%, it falls within that 8-10% range indicating a pull-back is likely to start next week.