Sam Weiss

The QQQ is oversold, but getting very close to entering a correction. We need to see the QQQ close out the day near $555 for this to be the start of a correction. Otherwise, more consolidation ahead.

Market was overbought and due for a pull-back. Here’s the pull-back on target as we outlined. The PCE numbers came in slightly hot, but the net impact was positive on CME indicating traders feel Sep rate cut was more likely after PCE.

As the rally reaches Day 100, the SPY/QQQ close in on overbought conditions. An early September start to the correction still looks likely.

Nvidia’s earnings is the last real catalyst before the fed meeting in mid-September. There’s a good chance we peak within the next 5-7 days regardless of how Nvidia’s earnings play out. Up/Down we still top soon.

The rally has now extended to week 21. This is a significant indication for a peak as week 20-22 is the most common place for market rallies to end. This includes consolidations.

Nothing has changed from Friday or from most of last week. The market sustained a 4% pull-back, reached deeply oversold conditions and is on retest of the highs. Same as Nvidia.

As we noted yesterday, the markets were deeply oversold and set-up to retest the highs. Powell indicating interest rate cuts at Jackson Hole is an easy excuse for the market to rally. But the impact will be short lived. Sep correction is as Inevitable as the Sunrise.

The QQQ hourly chart entered into deeply oversold territory yesterday and while we did see a rebound up to $566 to alleviate the pressure, it simply wasn’t enough. We discuss why.

The 5th segmented officially ended today which skyrockets the probability of an imminent correction. We may have already started one or will soon see one after retest. The market is oversold on hourly right now. That can lead to a rebound.