Sam Weiss

QQQ makes rare second push down to fill the $610-$615 gap as it reaches deeply oversold for a second time. The segment pull-back has reached our target -4%.

QQQ reached oversold territory yesterday and is due to bounce. Should see a second leg lower after a near-term rebound.

The most recent segment from $589 to $637 on the QQQ has ended with a 2.45% pull-back from peak to trough. The QQQ did not reach oversold or close to it. We should see a second leg lower in the segment to oversold.

As a reminder, we’re at the end of the segment here. Originally our expectation was for the QQQ to peak somewhere between $640-$646. However, the current action suggests we may have already topped at $637.

The market should see one last move toward $640 before we get a larger sell-off. But today’s trading action and what we open on Monday suggests we may already be on that pull-back.

Once the QQQ reached $617, we forecasted the QQQ would make an immediate move up to $630, breakout to a peak up to around $638 based on overbought indicators and that we’d see this pull-back to $628. History tells us exactly what comes next.

With the Fed set to deliver its decision on interest rates, the QQQ has reached that 8% on the segment indicating we’re at a peak near-term. A 4-5% pull-backs sits right around the corner.

The QQQ is doing what it has always done on century breakout. We’ve seen all of this before. Move up to $630 was easily predictable after the break of $613. We’re there now. We discuss how we plan to trade it.

The QQQ has entered uncharted territory as it has largely violated all prior trends going back to the 1990’s. Near-term analysis suggests a top at $632-$633 this week with a small 4-5% pull-back down to $600-$605.

The market rally has extended to 140-days which is the melt-up marker. That is almost 24-days beyond the previous record set by covid. We discuss the implications.