Sam Weiss

Volatility and trading ranges contract as the rally pushes beyond 40-sessions. We’re just 2-weeks shy of reaching the median duration for these types of rallies.

The market is making another push to breakout above key resistance. A breakout here opens a clear path to all-time highs as early as this week.

The near-term has become very decisively murky as both the bulls and bears have failed to take control of the SPY/QQQ. Major attempts at both breakout and breakdown have failed as the indices continues to trade at major support/resistance levels.

The market is pulling back off of its key resistance levels for the second team in the last two-weeks. We now have a potential double-top developing on the QQQ and SPY.

With the QQQ fully reversing course off of what appeared to be a false breakout, we now have significant evidence indicating that $520 represents far stronger resistance than first thought. The risk of correction has also risen in lock step.

The bears have staged their last stand at the $520 level. If the bulls can push through, it paves an open path back to all-time highs at $540 and eventually to $560 a share. If the bear win the day, the QQQ may retreat to fill its gap down at $487.

The near-term pull-back that started off overbought conditions appears to have ended at 3.3%. That is on the small side and may indicate problems down the road.

NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) continues to pull-back as expected. Should see a little more downside to test the upper gap-line near $501 a share.

There’s a distinct possibility that we could see a premature bottom to this pull-back. But even if that happens, we have even stronger evidence that a full-blown top is likely to occur no later than July and at around $560-$570 on the QQQ return the QQQ back to these levels.

6-Session consolidation continues in the market. However, history has shown that consolidations after big rallies are almost always signs that a near-term top is around the corner.