Sam Weiss

QQQ reversal in play. The rally is now looking very similar to July 2023 and could easily see a sell-off start next week.

While it feels like the rally is going to continue indefinitely, it’s not. The QQQ is going through its final topping stages similar to what we’ve seen at previous century marks.

The QQQ still hasn’t made a new high in 7-days. If it does, then the rally extends to 123-sessions. Regardless, very compelling evidence points to a top in the markets within 1-3% of where we are trading right now.

QQQ resting $600 as we outlined last Thursday. The market is currently at a higher probability of peaking right here and right now than at any other time in the rally. Looking at pure odds of a top, it’s higher today than in any previous point in time since April.

Today’s intraday pull-back from $596 indicates the QQQ might be forming a bearish consolidation ahead of a second leg lower to $580. We should get an indication of that early next week.

The QQQ sell-off from $603 a share has been very typical short-term selling pressure. Not the type of selling we generally see on correction. Chances are we’re in for a retest of the highs.

The QQQ has pulled back about 9-points from its $603 highs down to $594. But unless this pull-back continues down to the low $580’s, this is just a small inter-segment pull-back and a retest should follow shortly.

The QQQ is taking a breather as it has reached deeply overbought territory and is now due for a short-term 3-4% pull-back. Today represents Day 117 of the rally which is 3-days beyond the previous record.

The QQQ is testing the $600 level in very typical fashion. It’s likely to top here near-term and pull-back a minimum of 4%. With the rally extending to Day 116, that is a new record by 2-session. That’s how overextended the market is right now.

QQQ came within a $1.50 of reaching $600 a share just as it reaches a record duration for high vol rallies. At 115-days long now, we’re at the very end of the raod here.