Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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Sam,
what’s your view on SPY? Looks like it wants to go to 570 which could pull QQQ down with it to 500-498, no?
I’ll update on the SPY right now. one sec.
See above on the SPY. It’s right at gap support. the next key lines of support are $581 and $574 which are the top and bottom of the election gap-lines. After that, it’s the prior lows at $564.
The SPY, like the QQQ, is not oversold and it doesn’t feel like the market has the selling mometum in it to push oversold. At least not yet.
noted, thx
Sam, I am very new to all of this but really appreciated some free advice on Nvidia when you were active there. Now that I’m subscribing I’m learning a lot. I wanted to clarify if you can for me that you’re suggesting the possibility of a target of 142 near term for Nvidia. Obviously no guarantees, but was that what your data is indicating perhaps? Apologies if I’m way off here again I’m new to this.
So there’s a lot of conflicting information right now. WHat’s clear is Nivida is swimming upstream against the current. Look at today for example. The QQq made NEW lows and is down $4.18. Nviida is nowhere near its previous lows set when QQQ was last here at $508 right?
in fact, nviida is $10.00 higher. The stock wants to breakout and the only thing really holding it back ring now is the market.
The points I was trying to make are (1) if the NASDAQ dithers and does’t roll over decisively, Nviida could easily breakout and run; (2) even if the market rolls over, if we have a normal correction, it’s unlikely Nvidia takes a big hit. It may not even see now lows; (3) once the market does bottom and the correction ends, Nviida is going on a breakout run.
The comment about $142 is this. If nviida goes back up to $142 and takes that price out, then it may continue to swim upstream and make its way back to its highs.
Usually stocks trade with the market. And Nviida is doing that to a degree. But it’s resisting the tendency to go lower with the market. Hence why it’s up today when the market fairly red.
And it’s been like this for weeks. Ever since the fed really it has resisted the selling pressure at every turn.
Got it, very helpful. Thanks!
Hey Sam! As always, thanks for all the information. My roommate and I are loving the daily reads.
It seems like there have been a lot of question marks surrounding NVDA as to when a good time to buy would be and at what price. I am looking to spin up portfolios parallel to the Stark and Frey portfolios on this next correction and I was wondering if you will be looking to add NVDA to those portfolios – or if there is a buy point where if it doesn’t hit (like with TSLA) then you will pass on adding NVDA. Or if there is a point at which you would start DCA’ing. Either way, we’ll be following the trade alerts. Thanks for reading!
yeah so fundamentals are the guide. If it gets past a point where we feel like it’s not fairly valued at present, then we’ll pass.
For now, valuation points at $170. So we need a price that would make sense that’s well below that point.
If a correction occurs on the QQQ and Nviida still hanging around $135, we’d go long. Because that’s $35 in upside. But if Nvidia is trading at $155, that’s not a good opportunity.
Ultimately, Nvidia will probably make a run toward $200 sometime in the next 2-years. From $135, that’s a really strong entry point. From $150+, there’s too much risk.
We have to think about it like this too. Suppose the QQQ decides to screw around and not have a correction right here as it should. That just delays the inevitable. It means we go through this whole process again at $550 or $560. At some point, the QQQ will have a correction.
If it doesn’t happen now, then it acts as an overhang or shadow over the entire market. 5.5% is simply not enough. Not for the move we’ve had in terms of both price and duration.
Baratheon AAPL call watch : What were you looking for ? And what wasn’t met?
We were looking to buy the March $240 Calls at $13.00. But Apple didn’t revisit the lows of today. We may do that tomorrow. I guess I didn’t include ether $240 part. I was going fast for the other trades.
We had a nice dip at 12.80 at the opening.
Sure. So there are day when the market feels like it’s in control like today. And days like after the fed when the selling is heavy and no one is guessing where it’s likely to stop. Days like post fed are less orchestrated/organized.
Today’s action was very controlled. Every change the QQQ got to sell-off, it was bought right up. Key support levels were bought up. The SPY came right down to the upper gap-line and rebounded hard.
You don’t get that in days driven by fear. What’s more, the overall move down was tepid. We ended up closing down a single point on the QQQ.
On a day where the QQQ makes new lows, one would expect more and/or heavier selling pressure.
Would you close out any of the Apple covered calls that you had sold before the fed?