Daily Posts & Analysis

As the market rebounds aggressively back toward its highs from last week, there’s the possibility that we may be entering a rare 5th segment. At 85 days, the rally is reaching near record duration.

While we wait for the retest to play out, today we examine how delay after the market peaks might impact the correction timeline.

After pulling back 4% in just two sessions, the QQQ staged a very strong rally yesterday to start the week. The big question right now is whether the market is on a retest of the highs or preparing for leg 2 of the segment pull-back.

Big rebound on EU Tariff postpone news. The market has one of four roads ahead all leading to the same place. It’s just how we get there. We discuss the different ways things are likely to play out and why a correction by the end of the month is inevitable.

The market is undergoing a segmented rally pull-back. That much is clear. What isn’t obvious just yet is whether it will retest the highs or head straight into a full blown correction.

As the QQQ rally reaches Day 80 — the danger zone — strong earnings out of MSFT and META has brought some momentum back into the market. But will it last very long? The rally is still approaching maturity at the Day 80-100 zone.

The QQQ is one day shy of reaching the 80-day market for the rally. We’re also approaching earnings seasons and the final day of July. High probability for a market peak in early August.

SPY chart shows late stage DEEPLY overbought conditions confirming what we’ve always suspected. The QQQ is in late stage overbought and likely going to peak fairly soon. We’re nearing the end of the run.

The QQQ rally segment that began in mid-June at $523.65 a share has now extended to 25-sessions. That is the longest single segment without a 2.4% pull-back going back to the lows of 2022.

Segment reaches 24-sessions on Friday, as percentage returns for the entire month of July barely exceeds 2%. We continue to wait patiently for the market to reach an intermediate-term peak.