Daily Posts & Analysis

We’re now about 5 days into the high vol topping period with both the QQQ & SPY appearing to form head & shoulders tops. Regardless of how it plays out, one thing that is clear is that we’re at a top. What will follow from this is the market rolling over.

Day 4 of high volatility markets continues. With $590 lows yesterday to $607 highs today, there’s an indication the market is going to run trough a complex topping process rather than a hard top. But a hard top is still possible as seen in July 2024’s 4-days of volatility.

With the QQQ first dropping 3.5% on Friday, rebounding 2% on Monday and then falling nearly 2% at the lows on Tuesday is a clear-cut indication that we’re in a high volatility topping process.

While the futures are pointing to a deep green open, that is all going to be for nothing. That gap is going to be filled and the QQQ will soon roll over. Volatility shock has consequences.

With the QQQ rally extending to a record 130-days — 16-days beyond the precious record — there’s now a huge reversal underway that threatens to end the rally.

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Bearish reversal today increases the odds that the QQQ may have topped. At 127-days and with the QQQ struggling to push through the $600’s, the odds are increasing daily.

QQQ reversal in play. The rally is now looking very similar to July 2023 and could easily see a sell-off start next week.

While it feels like the rally is going to continue indefinitely, it’s not. The QQQ is going through its final topping stages similar to what we’ve seen at previous century marks.