The QQQ still hasn’t made a new high in 7-days. If it does, then the rally extends to 123-sessions. Regardless, very compelling evidence points to a top in the markets within 1-3% of where we are trading right now.
QQQ resting $600 as we outlined last Thursday. The market is currently at a higher probability of peaking right here and right now than at any other time in the rally. Looking at pure odds of a top, it’s higher today than in any previous point in time since April.
Today’s intraday pull-back from $596 indicates the QQQ might be forming a bearish consolidation ahead of a second leg lower to $580. We should get an indication of that early next week.
Rally Day 120: Probability of a Second Leg Lower Has Increased With Today’s Reversal Read Post »
The QQQ sell-off from $603 a share has been very typical short-term selling pressure. Not the type of selling we generally see on correction. Chances are we’re in for a retest of the highs.
The QQQ has pulled back about 9-points from its $603 highs down to $594. But unless this pull-back continues down to the low $580’s, this is just a small inter-segment pull-back and a retest should follow shortly.
Rally Day 118: QQQ Pull-Back Underway, but expect a Retest of the Highs Read Post »
The QQQ is taking a breather as it has reached deeply overbought territory and is now due for a short-term 3-4% pull-back. Today represents Day 117 of the rally which is 3-days beyond the previous record.
Market Pulling Back Marginally From Overbought Conditions Read Post »
The QQQ is testing the $600 level in very typical fashion. It’s likely to top here near-term and pull-back a minimum of 4%. With the rally extending to Day 116, that is a new record by 2-session. That’s how overextended the market is right now.
Rally Day 116: QQQ Going Through Typical Test of $600 to Start the Week Read Post »
QQQ came within a $1.50 of reaching $600 a share just as it reaches a record duration for high vol rallies. At 115-days long now, we’re at the very end of the raod here.
QQQ Struggles To reach $600 Day 2 Read Post »
The QQQ reaches two major inflection points. Record rally duration together with $600 a share. Both point to the market finally topping. The QQQ has never reached a new century mark without topping.
After today, there won’t be many catalysts. The market is far overdue for correction. What’s more, Fed day has a historical tendency to be a pivot point at both highs and lows in the market.
Fed Day likely Marks a Turning Point For the Rally Based on Historical Trends Read Post »