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As the market continues to consolidate, it becomes increasingly likely that we’re headed for a larger correction when all is said and done. 106 days in is a mere 9-sessions shy of the record duration rally.

Markets reverse off of overbought territory in the AM indicating that we’re in a clear-cut advanced consolidation now.

The never ending road to a market top continues as the rally has now extended to 104 days on the SPY. That’s 7-days shy of a 15-year record for high vol rallies.

The market is rebounding off of oversold territory as we outlined in yesterday’s session. Obviously, positive news out of Google helped fuel a part of that run. But the oversold bounce was inevitable. There are only two for the market to trade when it reaches deeply oversold territory.

The QQQ is oversold, but getting very close to entering a correction. We need to see the QQQ close out the day near $555 for this to be the start of a correction. Otherwise, more consolidation ahead.

Market was overbought and due for a pull-back. Here’s the pull-back on target as we outlined. The PCE numbers came in slightly hot, but the net impact was positive on CME indicating traders feel Sep rate cut was more likely after PCE.

As the rally reaches Day 100, the SPY/QQQ close in on overbought conditions. An early September start to the correction still looks likely.

Nvidia’s earnings is the last real catalyst before the fed meeting in mid-September. There’s a good chance we peak within the next 5-7 days regardless of how Nvidia’s earnings play out. Up/Down we still top soon.

The rally has now extended to week 21. This is a significant indication for a peak as week 20-22 is the most common place for market rallies to end. This includes consolidations.

Nothing has changed from Friday or from most of last week. The market sustained a 4% pull-back, reached deeply oversold conditions and is on retest of the highs. Same as Nvidia.