Today clearly indicates the market is on a third leg down. But volatility is weaker and the distances needed to sustain the sell-off are simply too great at this point. Market is likely to fully bottom on this leg lower.
Market Definitive Third Leg Lower on Much weaker Volatility Read Post »
The $NYMO presses higher while the market pulls back a little off of its highs. It’s still unclear whether we’ll see a third leg lower, but if we do, it will likely be small and short lived.
Market Volatility Continues to Contract As Trading Range Tightens Read Post »
Market pull-back looks minor at the moment. But as we mentioned yesterday, the market started to show signs of weakened ahead of today’s sell-off. It’s not yet clear whether it will turn into anything more.
Market Pulling Back Slightly, but Risk of 3rd Leg Still Unclear Read Post »
There’s some evidence starting to emerge pointing toward a potential third leg lower staring sooner than we might expect. However, the market has still likely bottomed and we’re still due for a multi-month rally.
Market Risk of a third Leg Lower Slowly Emerging Read Post »
The March Briefing is a month-long daily blog covering topics related to the Samwise Long-Term Model Portfolios. It gets updated daily and will archive in April.
April 2025 Briefing: LT Model Portfolio Risk Assessment, Optimization & stress test Read Post »
Markets are just beginning to normalize as signs point toward a multi-week rally on the horizon.
Market Normalizing: $VIX Crashing Back Down to Earth While $NYMO in Positive Territory Read Post »
Trading ranges have come down and the market’s violent swings have abated. However, volatility remains high indicating we’re still very early innings in the rally.
Rally Day 4: Trading Range Contracts, But $VIX/$NYMO both Remain Elevated Read Post »
Market retracing some of yesterday’s gains as focus shifts toward the China trade war. Trading ranges & the $VIX both remain elevated and outside normal operations.
Rally Day 3: Some Giveback Expected after 12% Up Day Read Post »
The markets remain a full 5% off of their lows set early Monday morning. The $VIX still trades north of 50 and remains deeply overbought. The NASDAQ-100 Daily & Weekly charts are oversold.
Rally Day 2: Trading Ranges Contract with $VIX Still Sky High & Market Deeply Oversold Read Post »
Capitulation Monday is following the typical playbook. The QQQ has already rallied 10% off of its lows and we’re likely to see substantial more upside ahead.