There’s some evidence starting to emerge pointing toward a potential third leg lower staring sooner than we might expect. However, the market has still likely bottomed and we’re still due for a multi-month rally.
Market Risk of a third Leg Lower Slowly Emerging Read Post »
The March Briefing is a month-long daily blog covering topics related to the Samwise Long-Term Model Portfolios. It gets updated daily and will archive in April.
April 2025 Briefing: LT Model Portfolio Risk Assessment, Optimization & stress test Read Post »
Markets are just beginning to normalize as signs point toward a multi-week rally on the horizon.
Market Normalizing: $VIX Crashing Back Down to Earth While $NYMO in Positive Territory Read Post »
Trading ranges have come down and the market’s violent swings have abated. However, volatility remains high indicating we’re still very early innings in the rally.
Rally Day 4: Trading Range Contracts, But $VIX/$NYMO both Remain Elevated Read Post »
Market retracing some of yesterday’s gains as focus shifts toward the China trade war. Trading ranges & the $VIX both remain elevated and outside normal operations.
Rally Day 3: Some Giveback Expected after 12% Up Day Read Post »
The markets remain a full 5% off of their lows set early Monday morning. The $VIX still trades north of 50 and remains deeply overbought. The NASDAQ-100 Daily & Weekly charts are oversold.
Rally Day 2: Trading Ranges Contract with $VIX Still Sky High & Market Deeply Oversold Read Post »
Capitulation Monday is following the typical playbook. The QQQ has already rallied 10% off of its lows and we’re likely to see substantial more upside ahead.
All of the signs point toward the market setting a bottom in this very trading day. In fact, there’s a strong probability the market will bottom during the first few hours of trade today.
Correction Day 34: capitulation Monday in full Effect with Likely Bottom Today Read Post »
$VIX is up to the 40’s today as Market fear has fully taken hold. Market is now in the process of capitulation. Expect a bottom on Monday.
Correction Day 33: $VIX Soars as Signs of Capitulation Emerge; Market Bottoms on Monday Read Post »
No extreme $VIX. No extreme $NYMO. We don’t have capitulation conditions, but we still have all of the reasons for why the market is in the bottom zone as outlined going into the week. That’s all still very much in play.
Correction day 32: No Capitulation But bottoming Conditions Clearly Forming Read Post »