Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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Hey Sam, thank you! Do you have a strategy for the Nvida April spread? Looks pretty worthless right now.., I wonder how much it can recover with 3 weeks remaining
Oh I was thinking the same thing. Even with a $10 rebound, not sure if its worth anything.
So the April spreads make up a very insignificant portion of the portfolios. Remember, we sold the April $140’s against our position to reduce our cost down to $70 total in Baratheon. That’s a 0.007% position. We did the same in Targaryen having sold most of our $140-$145 call-spread.
So both those positions are very small positions. The April $125-$140 call-spread could still end up pretty positive if Nvidia makes a move back up to $120+ in the coming weeks.
That’s because the $140’s will likely not move much while the $125’s could easily move up. So we’ll probably close the $125-$140’s on that rebound.
Also, are we in damage control mode for the QQQ spreads?
Personally, I’d consider averaging down and selling on the rebound to $480.
Damn. Breaking that channel support and getting rejected. Check out Jan 2022.
We’re waiting for the right circumstances to close out our QQQ positions.
delete
What do you think is a reasonable exit point?
Sam do you think Trumps “Liberation Day” April 2nd will have any effect on the market? Most well known analysts say it will cause the market to go down a lot more.
Anything that is expected by the market is already priced in. So if the market is already well aware of a set of circumstances, then expect the opposite to happen. the market prices in the future. It doesn’t wait until April 2nd and then go down. Same thing with positive news.
For example, if a company is going to launch a product and the product is mostly known with no surprises, it’s not going to go up on the day it launches the product. It will rally in anticipation of the launch and then most likely sell-off after the launch event itself.
how can anything this administration does be priced in when there is literally something new every single time he opens his mouth
Lately the QQQ and NVDA have been intertwined. Do you foresee it being necessary for the NVDA and QQQ rallies to occur over the exact same time period? Or is it possible since the bottoming situation for NVDA is even stronger that we may see a rally next week while QQQ still makes new lows?
So if I’m understanding correctly, you think the market will dip more next week but then should go back up? Do you think QQQ/NVDA go back to where they were before the correction (not all at once of course)? Or do they just retrace 50% and then go back down?
Based on the oversold hourly RSI, we are due for a rebound of $10-$15. The market closed without much momentum so it’s likely we gap down Monday and test the lows $465ish (refer to Sam’s chart analysis), before beginning a rally. As Sam noted, all other corrections have at least a 50% retracement rally’s and sometimes multiple depending on the number of legs.
I think that’s exactly what that is. Are we in a correction or the beginning of a bear market?
We already got our bounce, outlier bounce, RSI hit around the mid-point, which we talked about.
It just all fell short.
Unfortunately, there’s not an updated plan to exit the QQQ trades it seems. I wish we had an idea of what to expect regarding an exit strategy.
Look at the beginning of 2022’s downturn. 200 MA creeping down to 50 MA, just like now. Similar RSI. The “big bounce” that came in April only brought it up to the highs of the smaller bounce in Feb.
I think we have seen our bounce and the QQQ spreads are rapidly losing value.
I need the hopium and copium.
Do these charts even mean anything in todays world?
I took my Xanax. I’m good now LOL