The last 7 trading days since the markets gapped up above resistance last Thursday has indicated a lot of indecision by investors. As I mentioned yesterday, one thing you want to see in a strong rally is big white candlesticks on the chart. This indicates a day where stocks opened flat to slightl...
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Would today count as a day of selling off or is the near term peak yet to be established?
So the way we count it is by simply looking at the peak price and then counting 3-4% down. We won’t know until next week, but yesterday could have very very easily been the peak. We had a big reversal day followed by a second reversal day. If we’re down big on Monday, then we have our answer.
These things typically unfold in no more than 3-5 days as you can see from the table posted in yesterday’s Daily Briefing. We peaked yesterday at $493.70. A 3-4% pullback would take the QQQ down to around $479 to $474. With the gap-line extending down to the low $170’s I highly doubt the QQQ would push down to $474 without continuing lower to just fill the gap at $470. So it’s really about the gap at $478. That marks the most realistic scenario from a $493.70 peak. So $478 at the high end and $470 at the low end.
Any future buying opportunities during this pull-backs?
Yeah. We’ll be buying on the next 3-4% pullback.
Hey:) so would you say there is a minimal amount of capital so this trading strategy makes sense? I unfortunately dont have the funds like you use in your examples in investing basics..
That’s just for illustrative purposes. There’s no real minimum amount of capital.
Hello Sam,
When i read previous news, you said NVIDIA rallye after FED, it was true but i understood directly to 140$.
China cash plan this week awakened Luxury brands like LVMH, Hermes, L’Oreal.
NVIDIA pullback since thursday is about to stop to rallye again to 130-135$ range ?
Best
Karl
I think he’s said $150 by end of year for a long time.
HI Karl — so I think it’s important to separate out the timelines for things. So right now, I think the market has begun a long rally that will take months to unfold. During that time, we may see small sell-offs, small rallies, and small peaks and throughs. But over the course of the next several months, it’s going to rally like we saw since September 6 when Nividia hit a low of $101 and then rallied to $127. So that’s the intermediate-term time frame. I think we see the market rally to $550 during this time and Nvidia rallies beyond $130. But that’s over the next 3-4 months.
Now the short-term time-frame (we’re talking days to weeks), we could see different things happen. For example, right now we expect the market to peak and sell-off for a very short period of time. The selling will be heavy (3-4%) but it will only last 3-7 days. After that, we rally again (as per our intermediate-term time frame).
So we have THREE different time-frames:
(1) Short-Term Time frame (days to weeks)
(2) Intermediate-Term Time Frame (weeks to several months)
(3) Long-Term time frame 6-24 months
We’re invested for the long-term time-frame where we believe Nvidia rallies to $150 or beyond. I expect that could happen as early as January.
The Daily Analysis and Daily Briefings mostly concern the Short-Term time frame and the intermediate-term time-frame.
As of now, here’s where we stand (to sum up):
Short-Term Time Frame: We expect the QQQ to fall 2-4%. Nvidia probably falls 6-9% during that period
Intermediate-term Time Frame: We expect the QQQ to rally back to all-time highs after the short-term pull-back ends
Long-Term Time Frame: We expect the entire market to rally to new highs which entails NASDAQ-100 +$550 and Nvidia +$150
Thanks Sam. Cristal clear.