Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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Wasn’t it just a „sympathy“ dropoff due to TSMC dropping on the news that the US halted Chip shipments to China?
Intraday today QQQ went down approximately -0,6% and then back up to almost flat (now at 3:30 PM). Do you think this counts as the expected 1-2% pullback or more pullback is to be expected?
With this kind of hopium, if NVDA comes in very strong – beats bigly and substantial raise, probably ending next week at $170.
As for this week, I am curious if the market will blast off (when/if) House confirms 218 seat majority. I bet QQQ 530s that it will.
If you are going to downvote, it would be helpful to explain why? I’m not always right, but when I am, they are 50-baggers
I even mentioned the same play on QQQ on Nov 1st – this is what keeps things fun while waiting for NVDA go to somewhere:
Not sure anyone’s down voting. It’s easy to click on that button when scrolling.
oh. My bad. I just saw the downvotes and didn’t understand why.
NVDA $170 the week after earnings isn’t very likely. But there are some factors that I believe could really set up an insane short-term trade (mostly speculative opinion):
Last earnings NVDA disappointed and dropped. Goobers were literally having watch parties in Manhattan, thinking they were going to retire with their gains. People are being much more cautious this time.Every other day there is a story about SMCI or government sanctions or Blackwell lower yields, etc. adding to a somewhat tamped down bullish moodThe Mag7 literally told us they spent more on CapEx and will be spending more next quarter/yearThere is a sense of market Euphoria (quite likely overdone at this point) about Trump’s effect on the markets. Just look at TSLA and MSTR – parabolic clown shows.November is a month where billions of buybacks take effect – These buybacks will push prices higher and rising tides lift all boats.There are some other anecdotal or season nonsense factors I could list that people might believe in or use to make decisions, but I don’t want to go on forever. I already ramble enough.
My investing strategy is mildly boring. One day I’ll probably just dump 95% of my money into MO and check on it every 10 years. But I work from home and get extremely bored. So, I use a tiny amount of money to make longshot bets during the week for fun.
So, I was trying to come up with what BS narrative Wall Street will try to sell this week or next week – and then it hit me, the House hasn’t been called.
If the House goes to Dems, the market will claim that markets love split government because it provides stability and not much spending will happen (100% false – split government causes more spending because each side has to get wins to pass bills)
If the House goes to Reps, the market will claim that this will make it easier for Trump to immediately cut regulations, reduce BASEL restrictions, privatize Fannie Mae, etc.
Will QQQ go to 530 by the end of next week? Maybe a 2% chance. But that’s good enough for me to toss a little money at it and enjoy the show.
Good luck to everyone!
Hi Sam, any thoughts on Bitcoin?
I have coinbase on my watchlist and check it daily. As with other stocks, I’m mostly interested in cryptos for the oversold trades.
Since the election, crypto ETFs have seen otherworldly level of inflows. Coinbase has moved up 60-70% in value in just a few days.
Really strong moment in obviously. But again, I’m more interested in the oversold trade.
August-September would have been the ideal time to buy when COIN was at $150
At the current volatility levels, there’s a lot of risk-reward trading it now.
Moving on 19-20% per day, it’s bound to see similar down days.
Intraday today (nov 11) QQQ went down approximately -0,6% and then back up to almost parity. Do you think this counts as the expected -1 to -2% pullback or more pullback is to be expected?
That’s a possibility. It’s really how much we come off overbought conditions that controls. Typically we get a pull-back that brings us out of overbought territory and then another surge on lower momentum (negative divergence). The QQQ right now is barely out of overbought territory. Nvidia, on the other hand, came way way off of overbought territory.
Whoa QQQ just (Nov 12 11h45) bounced again off at the 512$ level, recent support.
Sam, a very minor and technical question. When you’re determining resistance points for QQQ and NVDA (any other stocks for that matter), are there factors you take into consideration? (e.g. based off previous rallies, psychological levels, fundamentals). Mainly want to understand so I can do this type of analysis myself across other companies. If this comment section isn’t the right forum, happy to message somewhere else.
They’re determined by a mix of both psychological and previous resistance patterns. Let’s say Nvidia gets up to $173 on the next breakout run and that’s where it meets some heavy selling. Maybe it sustains correction or a minor pull-back. Even on a minor pull-back, when it gets back up to that $173 area, that will be a resistance line. The more difficulty Nvidia has in getting through that line, the greater the resistance over time.
Then you also have key psychological levels like $1,000 a share, or in this case, $150 a share.
Any past high point becomes a resistance point. The longer it has been since the stock visited those levels the more of a resistance level it becomes. And that is because anyone who wants out is looking at the previous high point as a potential exit — wishing they had got out at that point when they had the chance.
Anytime a stock sustains a major correction, any area where there had previously been a lot of buying will form resistance as those are points where certain investors are at break-event. IF someone buys a stock at $130 and it drops to $90, then $130 is where that investor breaks-even. They could be waiting for $130 to exit.
Those are the different ways support/resistance lines can be formed. Support is just the exact opposite directionally as resistance.