Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
Please login to view this page.
Looking forward to Chapter 4 with great anticipation!
Hello Sam,
Do you expect the 510-525 top for the QQQ before a short term pull back based on over bought conditions?
Would it be correct to assume that if NVDA pulled back from overbought condition the QQQ would follow suit and/or vice-versa?
So based on the trend cycle we’ve seen over the past 2-years, that’s where the QQQ should generally trade before seeing any sort of a peak. But this entire rally from $477.40 hasn’t gone exactly to plan. Like we would normally see a 1% down day like today in the midst of a rally. At worst, we might get a small .2% down day on a tight range. So we’ll see what comes of today.
In terms of Nvidia <---> QQQ impact, the QQQ is more likely to impact Nvidia than Nvidia is to impact the QQQ. But it does happen. On strong enough momentum, we’ve seen the QQQ move in a strong direction on NVDA news. It’s typically the other way around. When the QQQ drops, so does Nvidia and when it rises, it puts upside pressure on Nvidia.
Sam, for your portfolio, do you have a price target that you’ll be selling at?
Not really. The key is to capitalize on the long-term. So we’ll probably be holding for a while. But we may essentially sell by selling covered calls. For the time being, we’re just remaining long.
Ahh cool, thanks for the reply!
Hey Sam,
I just read the chapter on covered call writing to roll leaps forward.
I live in Germany where we do not have short term capital gains tax. In that case your strategy would work simply by rolling the leaps forward „traditionally“ right?
Thank you
So if we didn’t have short-term cap gains here in the U.S., we’d still roll that way in order to avoid realizing our gains. There are other benefits to deferring the tax consequence. But in reality, tax consequence is more of a private individual investor matter. What works for one set of investors might not work for another. We’re making our decisions based on each of the model portfolio’s particular situation. But different people have different considerations. And in reality tax issues are best left to your tax advisor. I’d ask your accountant/tax professional.
Let me give an example of why this would be an impossible question to really answer. Suppose Mary sold some investment property resulting in a profit of $500k. If she has big losses in some covered call she sold, it might make sense for her to close that covered call in the current year to harvest tax losses to off-set the gain.
Todd might not have that gain and hence might want to defer the covered call loss into the next year.
—-
As the Samwise Portfolios are concerned, we’re assuming a strategy that defaults toward deferring realizing gains and/or losses for as long as possible.