Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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Hi Sam curious if you had any strong feelings about Microsoft’s fundamentals and outlook at this point in time. At what entry price would you consider adding to the SW portfolio?
Microsoft would need to become oversold on the daily chart and trade sub-$400 for us to get interested in buying it. We’re very much an opportunistic-based strategy. With Microsoft at sub-$400 and oversold on the daily, we can bet for a 15-20% move to the upside.
Also, repost of an earlier Q:
It’s been a great month for nuclear energy stocks, and AI companies in particular are doubling down on partnerships with nuclear energy co.’s.
Wondering if any nuclear energy stock options catch your eye and why? Cheers
If I were to make a derivative investment into nuclear energy, I’d go straight to the nuclear ETF — NLR. Unless you’re an expert on the nuclear energy sector, it’s generally safer/smarter to be diversified within the sector. And that would mean nuclear ETFs.
Our strategy isn’t really focused on trying to capitalize on every surge and/or opportunity in the market. That requires a momentum based approach to investing.
We’re more a contrarian approach. We wait for markets to become oversold and then step in ahead of the next big move to the upside.
For example, right now NLR is up 40% since August and trading at an 81-RSI on the daily. I can only imagine what the individual nuclear stocks are doing. I know Microsoft, Google and a few other major companies made some recent big investment into nuclear energy. And you can clear see the momentum and massive volume in the chart. Clearly a ton of interest in nuclear stocks atm.
For me it’s all timing and opportunity. At the moment with NLR trading at an 81-RSI and up 40% in two months, I don’t see the opportunity at the moment. At least not until we get a correction.
You can invest in it from a momentum point of view. But I tend to steer clear of that due to the uncertainty. I feel a lot more confident in making the oversold trade than I do the momentum trade.
How soon should we expect to start buying NVDA on the next dip, and what could the timeline for that pullback look like? Would it be in the coming weeks of October or closer to two weeks before earnings? What do you think could trigger the dip, especially considering that the company’s news has been very positive, and both economic data and macro conditions for the market are currently very strong? The chart is indicating a level around $115.
Hello,
Since a moment NVIDIA drop 10% to 30% before earnings.
Recent rallye can make NVIDIA drop to 110-120$ before rallye to 140-160$.
So I’m not sure we’ll even see a pull-back like that. I’m merely pointing out that from a time cycle point of view, the rally started a tad bit early. With the NASDAQ-100 sort of dithering right now and with the SPY reaching a pretty high peak, we could see another small down cycle ahead of earnings which are a full 4-weeks away.
But that’s not exactly how we expect things to transpire. That’s just a possibility given (1) the trading action in the NASDAQ-100 and SPY; and (2) the amount of time there still is until Nvidia reports earnings.