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Do you think Nvidia is going to pull back?
So there’s a high level of risk that it will. It’s why we sold it yesteday at $147. Remember, what we noted. Recently, Nvidia (NVDA) has been going through a boom-bust cycle. It has gone from extremely overbought, to extremely oversold.
Eventually, it will one day break out of that cycle and just run to the moon. It’s going to happen. but until it does, there’s a high level of risk that Nvidia could easily pull back to the mid-$130’s again or lower.
The problem is we won’t know when the breakout happens. A likely candidate? Earnings. But there’s definitely time for at least 1 or even 2 more cycles between now and earnings.
What’s your take on ASML and with their ER coming up next week
ASML is one we just couldn’t get done. I don’t follow its fundamentals closely, but it is a strong company. It’s a going concern. We should have bought it in the $650’s in mid-November when we had the chance. We were just really concerned about how it would perform in a correction. To my surprise, it didn’t react at all.
The correct happens and the stock goes up the entire time the market is heading lower. I was thinking it would roll over down to $550-$580 and then we’d snag it for the long-term portfolios. $550 is key support.
Earnings is always a gamble. You never know how the market is going to react to a company’s earnings near-term. If a company is strong fundamentally and a good long-term investment, then those should be the tenants that we rely on when buying in.
$650 and ultimately $550 are the two critical line of support for ASML. If it ever gets down to $650 again, we’ll buy a 1/2 position. Buy another half at $550.
We probably wouldn’t buy options but rather common stock for Frey, Tarly and Tyrell.
Thanks DC!
I got in late October and early November so there were some tense moments but it has some wild swings here and there. Seems to me because of the position they enjoy it was bound to recover but I always expect days like this (and the opposite) to be a regular thing with this ticker.
Apple still seems to be struggling today. Would it be wise to hold through earnings?
So we’re going to hold through earnings. I think a lot of negativity is priced in. We’ve bought because it’s oversold on the daily which has a long history of producing results. So that’s what we’re betting on right now in the intermediate-term.
Please see our update on Nvidia above.
Sam, what are your thoughts on Tesla going into earnings? At what price level is this a good buy?
Sorry I missed this CK. thanks for repost question. Always do that if I don’t respond. That way I can answer it. I posted a response in the new daily.
Posting just the TL;DR you created for Nvidia would have been enough for your outlook imo. It effectively conveys your perspective on where Nvidia is heading, and it’s concise and to the point, which would make regular updates easier for you.
I’m a fan of your in-depth analysis, don’t get me wrong, but a quick TL;DR feels like a more sustainable approach
You’re right. I’ll keep that as part of the outlook structure. It makes a lot of sense. I often forget how much content is being pumped out. It’s a ton of stuff to read through.
We’ll add those salient points. I might starting having Chat GBT summarize the daily stuff as well. I think the daily briefing can do with some summations at day end.
We’ll post one every day. Some days are just slower than others. This is one of those slower transitionary days. Nothing for us to do. Market is doing what we kind of expect right now. If things push to oversold, we’ll buy. Tesla is down to a mid-40-RSI. That’s what I’m watching very closely becuase we not only want to rebuy our call taht we sold. We want to buy a spread. So if we get that opportunity on this next pull-back, then we’ll pull the trigger. Need to see it hit a 30-RSI.