Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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hopefully it doesn’t go for a skinny dip, but truly dives for the bottom..
Sam, Is it likely that today was the top, or is it more likely we make another run towards the $5777-$583 area?
We’re 19 trading days away from sept 19.
less than 4 trading weeks to make it to 150$ ????
That’s the thing about probabilities. For this run, we hit the extremes. It was low probability, but sometimes that is what we get.
That is why Sam did smaller trades and not large 20% trades.
Fingers crossed the spreads still print some money!
I went with the same trades but pushed them out to November, just in case of outlier move. Makes managing the position a lot easier. Less money but worth the trade-off for me
If Nvidia doesn’t have blowout earnings and the correction begins in earnest, as expected, good chance it’s already $160 by the end of the week imo
So consider those periods. What followed after them? How rare are consolidations like that?
Long consolidation tops almost always precede significant moves in the market. Not always, but I’d say far more often than not we get a big crash, bear market or significant sell-off on consolidations like that.
We don’t usually see consolidations that long unless the market is about to take a major hit. For 2022 consolidation you reference, it immediately preceded the year-long 40% bear market in the QQQ.
For 2025 one, it lead right into that 25% correction in the QQQ.
So it’s rare. They don’t happen all too often, they’re generally very spaced apart and nearly always precede big moves in the market.
I don’t think we’re ripe for one right now. It can’t be expected ahead of every correction and the fact that we just went through one makes it less likely.
Especially super long ones like the 2-month long consolidation process between Dec 2024 and Feb 2025. That is an exceptionally long period of time and we observed 8% sell-offs during that consolidation period.
This one technically started back in late July ahead of the 4th segmented rally pull-back. That was the first step in the overall topping process. It’s where the trend shifts from straight to more sideways action.
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In terms of our position strategy, we opted to buy two 3% positions for roughly 6-7% total on the basis that they might expire worthless. That was the way to limit the damage on a short trade. Instead of buying a 30% position, for example, that might decline 30-40%. The idea was to take small position to limit damage if the trade doesn’t work.
We could have taken a longer term position that puts more money at stake or a short-term small position to get to the same result. We choose the latter to limit our risk to 6%. That is the risk of the trade. A 6% loss.
Hello Sam, NVIDIA seems unmoved… Is this part of the plan?
Did anyone else get today’s briefing? I didn’t receive it.
Did not see one either, but could be a similar situation to Day 76 and Sam may post later
Yeah, seemed kind of like a nothing burger of a day until the end there. Can’t assume that was anything other than bearish movement, but there are already so many signs pointing to an imminent top, probably doesn’t move the needle a lot from Friday’s briefing. Curious to see Sam’s thoughts