Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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What’s interesting is this would be right on time to head directly into a correction given the start of the month. A retest could leave it in that awkward mid-month spot.
Sam predicted it again, wizard ????
Hey Sam, if we get a correction do you plan on launching a new portfolio or does that depend on capitulation?
IIRC he said no, but agreed it would be appropriate for people to launch their own basically by going long with the new trades.
If this is truly the start of the correction and there’s no retest, funny to think we potentially went from highs yesterday to potentially ending today’s session 30-40% of the way into the total anticipated correction. Blink of an eye indeed and lines up with what Sam mentioned about most of the downward movement coming in the early part of the correction
Hey Sam,
Just a heads up. When using Chrome to read the comments, the comment bubble in the bottom left sometimes shows more comments than are actually visible when sorting by “Oldest.”
This bug has been around for a while. I’ve noticed it over the past few months while following.
Tip for anyone else seeing fewer comments than expected: manually change the sort to “Most Voted” each time the page loads. The missing comments usually appear.
After leaving a comment, I can see all comments under both settings.
Appreciate your insight Sam!! Thanks for guiding us
What’s the likelihood that the market pulls back just a little bit and then goes past the highs instead of dropping back down, meaning this little blip is all we get?
It depends on what you mean by “all we get.”
The stock market is most definitely not going to just keep going up without a correction. It hasn’t happened. Ever. And never in a situation where we have a high volatility rally where the market is adding half a percent per day on average.
You know we’ve made assumptions of this being a record-breaking run here. So we’re already operating at extremes.
Our assumptions are already this time is a bit different than others. Remember historically, once a rally gets to like 35% it’s usually at the very high end of the range.
We’re sitting here at 42-44% returns. For this type of run, for the types of pullbacks we’ve seen, this has never happened before. Not for this type of rally.
With Covid, we did see an 84% run but with 10 major pullbacks.
For regular rallies that have regular 2 to 4% pullbacks, 36% was the previous record. And that one ended on 89 sessions.
Today is 81 sessions.
Very very few rallies have been able to go much past where we are now.
So if you mean, going up and making new highs and eventually peeking at like day 100, then sure.
That’s a very distinct possibility. QQQ bottoming at -4% and then rallying back up to like 585 is certainly in the cards and so is even going to 600.
What’s not in the cards is no correction happening. Just like how back in April there was no such thing as the market just going straight down endlessly without bottoming. It’s the exact same shit.
This pullback is a very clear cut indication that we are going to have a correction before the end of September. It’s already set in stone. It’s not gonna go past September.
The fourth segment tells you where this market is likely to top and it’s going to top between now and September with a near certainty. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s a future event, it would be almost subject to deductive reasoning.
-Fourth segment ends July 31.
-Pullback maximum 7-days.
-New segment by Aug 11 latest.
-25 day segment = Sep 12.
So even in the most rosy of circumstances, the rally will end by around September 12
We’re talking even in a situation where we have yet another 25 day segment.
But realistically since this pullback is already 4% I’m telling you we’re probably not going down that path
By far, the most likely set of circumstances right now are (1) the market rebounds back to the highs, fall short of those highs by a few points and then crashes; (2) the market simply goes into a correction from here; (3) we get a week final segment of 6 to 8% lasting until the last 10 days of August. We go into a correction somewhere around August 22 to August 30.
That is the most likely set of circumstances. We have seen so many historical instances where the last segment is short-lived pretty weak and while we make new highs, it leads to a decisive top no retest.
The pullback that we’re seeing now is sort of a prelude to what is coming. And that means we’re either gonna get a retest that fails or we might get new highs but it’s only gonna be a few days and then it’s over. Or we’ve already started the correction.
When I get back to my computer, I’ll show those examples
If you go back and look at every past correction going back to like 2010 you’ll see what exactly what I mean.
This 4% pullback we’re seeing right now sort of doomed the rally. Everything is sort of different now than it was back on July 30. Back on July 30 there was still a possibility that this can go to 100+ days. Now I think that sort of out the window.
If this pull back was only 2-3% that would be one thing. but the fact that we’re at 4% in two days means that this rally is doomed.
If we’re down big on Monday, then we’re already in a correction
Hello Sam,
Great analysis, I’m learning a lot from your daily briefing. What I’m missing is your weekly briefing which really helped me to set a context for the coming week. Any ideas on doing the weekly briefing again?.
Regarding overall market structure and sentiment. I have seen some traders posting about $NAMO and $NYMO. How can we interpret those charts with regards to current stock indexes and current market context. It looks like those two are indicating bottom and traders/investors anticipating the dead cat bounce from here. Appreciate if you could share some thoughts on it.
Just like clockwork the news cycle has turned all negative, good work Sam
Retest underway