Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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Hi Sam,
Just wanted to clarify one of your statements:
Would we be adding to our put position with the goal of trading out of them during segment pullbacks or are we accumulating a bigger position for the potentially larger future correction (the one after the current one we’re in)?
Thanks!
We would trade them. We wouldn’t be accumulating a short position.
So what we would do is buy maybe a 20 contract position at a low price and then sell them on the way down so that our 30 contract position becomes cheaper and cheaper overtime
It is a way to indirectly reduce our cost basis. We could also potentially close out our long position or self covered calls against them as an alternative.
The point is we want to leverage the inevitable 3 to 4% pullback by either reducing the calls or adding to our puts and then closing that out on the pull back
If we’re under scenario 2, we could see a lot of volatility before the market eventually buckles where the QQQ rises and falls by significant margins.
The key right now is to take positions after there’s been a big move in one direction or the other.
A big drop from here in a fourth leg lower sets up adding to our leaps and reducing our puts.
A big move up from here set us up to add to our puts and maybe reduce our calls.
In scenario 2, the drop to the $540 support level would be greater than in scenario 1 with $570 and would require more trading days, hence a likely drop in January 2026 for scenario 2 and not in December 2025?
Any updates on Nvidia?
Sam, here at this juncture, how are we going to determine whether its a new rally or just a complex top?
It’s based on how the rally unfolds. I will post this analysis soon, but a huge hint on what type of a rebound this is is based on how explosive the run is.
If you look at first segments of every rally in this bull market what you’ll find is that the first segment generally runs at least 10%. At least least twice in this bull market the first segment ran 15%.
If this is the start of a new rally, we should get back to the highs within like 10 to 15 days of last Thursday’s low.
We got a big push into overbought territory.
Hello Sam
How can we explain the negative reaction from Google’s beta testing compared to QQQ?
Is this the new NVIDIA or Meta ?
Sam, wondering what plan do you have for Baratheon and Targaryen.