Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. A sort of Quick Reference Handbook if you will -- as our friends in aviation might call it. By clicking the menu below, you’ll have qu...
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hi Sam, it looks like QQQ is deeply oversold on the hourly for the last 3 bars. Does this justify closing out the puts / buy new calls or we are waiting for a potential pull back to the 590s and being oversold — barring a correction?
It hasn’t reached oversold yet at all. You must be looking at a different timeframe. On the hourly it hasn’t even hit 30 yet.
Right now, it’s at 31.45 on as the QQ hits $607.77
I was making the same mistake for a while. By default the charting on my brokerage (Webull) includes extended hours and overnight trading. Indicators like RSI(14) will be derived from the last 14 periods displayed on the chart, so they’ll include that EH/overnight activity. That changes the derived “hourly RSI” I see vs the one Sam is looking at on Stockcharts.
If I disable EH/overnight charting and only show regular hours trading, then the hourly RSI14 I see in Webull matches what Sam reports. I imagine other brokerages may have similar behavior; just keep that in mind if you are comparing data in your charts against Sam’s briefings.
Thank you so much for sharing this. It looks like it was the same for me. I was wondering why it showed a low 20’s RSI for me but it wasn’t yet oversold on Sam’s chart. Looks like it’s in order now.
Also thought TSLA was due for a legendary bounce at a “15 RSI” 😂
Good to know. Looks like I’ve been looking at the wrong chart this whole time lol
Hi Sam,
This is my own opinion, but I actually prefer the old visual and functional style for the daily briefing comment section. The comments take less space on the screen, indentation for replies to comments are more distinct, and I’m able to subscribe to your replies to other comments. If possible, I would prefer if you kept it like this, but that’s just my own opinion.
Thanks!
Just to be clear: Looks like the old visual and functional style has been restored, which is great. I’m just calling out how I prefer this vs. what we had yesterday (and the day before that I believe)!
Hi Sam,
We originally classified the initial pullback to $600 as a segment pullback. Does the pullback today still count as part of that pullback? If not, what would you classified this as? Mainly trying to piece together how I should think about the down legs we’ve seen the last few days. These pullbacks were originally classified as correction legs, but since the first leg retraced too much of the move so it’s technically now viewed as a segment pullback. However we’re now seeing a second leg down to $600 potentially, but this can’t be a second correction leg since the first leg was retraced too much. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding something here. Is this just a regular pullback with no association with any segments?
Thanks!
Sounds like this 2nd pullback is classified as just being part of the segmented pullback from $637 as a whole based on your article, would that be correct? So essentially a two legged segmented rally pullback of ~6%.
Hi Sam,
Just curious, when you say
I’m assuming we’re not accounting for the potential outcome this oversold instance is the one the market ignores and continues and dropping past $600, yeah? If I’m understanding correctly, we’re not confident in this outcome because the 70% retracement significantly reduces the chances we’re in a correction.
Thanks!
So the market ignoring oversold outcome is just really rare. When you look back at previous corrections, we do have instances of it. So we obviously had it in April. But other than that, we don’t really see it all too often.
For example, in January, teh market rebounded on all instances of oversold.
In the September correction, it did the same. Though Nviida did ignore it in September.
In the August correction, the same thing. The QQQ reached deeply oversold leading to a 20-point bounce each time. It’s just that hte selling was large enough to put hte QQQ down 40 at each oversold point. It would then rebound 20ish and then fall another 40.
Here’s, we’re not quite getting enough selling before the market is reaching oversold conditions is one problem. The momentum hasn’t really shifted to the sell-off. Not really. When we sell-off $39 and rebound $26, it means there’s still too much demand in the market.
So I don’t know that we ignore oversold is the issue. The market could do it, but it’s just hard to see when the momentum is still not squarely negative.
Looks like another relatively big gap-down today. Wondering if today being Friday changes the strat if it manages to stay red throughout the day.
Buying calls on a red day right before the weekend (with the correction looming) in anticipation of a rebound might be a bit too risky?
Would have been fruitful last Friday!
We also habe NVDA earnings next week. Maybe that will push the market to one last retest of the $620-630 levels like Sam outlined?
Yeah not too sure, all I know is i’m not confident enough to buy on a Friday gap-down, unless the hourly is RSI 20