Samwise Dashboard
To streamline our daily blogs and conserve space, we’ve organized key resources into a convenient, collapsible dropdown menu below. By clicking the menu, you’ll have quick access to shortcuts for all of our Samwise Model Portfolios, the Current Market Outlook, Administrative Announ...
Please login to view this page.
What are your thoughts on AAPL heading into earnings next week? Do you think there is a possibility of breaking down to $215? Seems to be holding $222 quite well
It could breakdown. that’s a possibility. It could push to oversold conditions. teh way we view it right and the way we’re approaching the Bartheon position is as such.
We bought the April calls when it was at a 30-RSI. We feel very confident we’ll be able to ultimately sell those for a gain. Regardless of what comes next.
The Apple 30-RSI table illustrates this. Within 8-10 trading sessions of reaching a 30-RSI (half the time it is the very day it reaches 30) Apple will begin a big $20+ rally. During that rally, we’ll sell the March calls we have and the April calls.
Chances are we’ll be able to eke out a return not eh April calls and there’s a decent chance we’ll be able to sell the march calls at a slight loss.
If Apple rolls over after earnings, it’s likely going to be short-lived as Apple is already down a lot. If it goes up on earnings, then great.
So that’s teh way we’re approaching it. Impossible to tell how Apple will react on earnings. I just know historically when Apple sells off into the results, whatever negative news that lies ahead is often priced-in.
Apple is a huge value stock now and it’s not going to steer too far from its base value. It’s already down nearly 16% from its highs. It’s due for at least a 10-12% bounce. So that’s how we see it right now.
Also, we hold relatively small positions in Apple right now as the portofio is concerned. so it’s not an incredibly high risk to the baratheon portfolio. Even if the march calls go south, the April calls will produce a profit. that we’re confident of.
A 10% bounce in 20 days from the low would bring AAPL to 241,50$ on Feb19. This would leave our call still at -30%. It would have to go really well to breakeven. But as you emphasized, it’s a small position.
Yeah and the April call that we bought would be up huge in that situation. They would go to around $24 or something like that. We’d be up like 1100 on the April’s and down 300- 400 on the Marches.
The key is to stick to making the same size trades all the time and then getting them right for more often than not.
Like the Nvidia trade we just made . When we put on these types of trades, we should have a high probability win rate.
If we’re winning on four out of five of these, we should do really well.
Sam, what are your thoughts on Tesla going into earnings? At what price level is this a good buy?
So the way I approach Tesla is to buy it when everyone hates it. Tesla goes though very large and long cycles of everyone loving it (now) and everyone hating it (3 months ago).
The key thing with Tesla is to buy it when everyone hates it. When the outlook is very negative. When the stock is down significantly from its highs.
Tesla is not in that sort of set-up right now. So we’re not playing it because I don’t want to get caught in the sentiment shift when it comes.
Eventually Tesla is going to crash as it always does and that will present a buying opportunity. See attached.
Thank you, that makes a lot of sense.
New here, always appreciate your analysis.
Hi Sam,
I noticed a lot of targeted material against NVIDIA starting with the not so well prepared cnbc documentary focusing on the Chinese Deepseek model, and the META datacenter to be constructed 3/4 of Manhattan’s size which all thing will be filled with AVGO chips for inference. Is someone trying to get a better price on NVIDIA or are these things worth investigating ?
Good question. I came on to ask Sam this as well.
Deepseek’s r1 model is outperforming/on-par with OpenAI’s a1 model, and SUPPOSEDLY used older and fewer NVDA chips to train their LLMs. Now there are disputes over what and how many chips they were actually using to train, since due to sanctions they were not supposed to get the NVDA Hopper chips, but their models are open sourced so I’d imagine people can get to the bottom of that fairly quickly. Assuming Deepseek’s claims are true, that does call Nvidia’s moat into question. Interested to get your take on this, when you have time. Thanks Sam.
I tested it on their webpage…was not so inpressed…maybe its o1 mini level…and that comparing a 650B params model with a much lower one…also saw comparisons to meta 3B…additionally..it says its gpt by OpenAI….seems to me like a frankenstein model stiched together and extra trained with 6M….nevertheless the news are pouring in against NVDA…
And here it comes: if Deepseek costed 6M (and then its written but not talked about at cnbc: this is only training cosrt, does not include infrastructure, technical team wages, research payment or any other wheel in the mechanism), why Bank of China is set to pay up to 1T yuan aka 137B usd in next 5 years for AI advancement? https://www.bankofchina.com/aboutboc/bi1/202501/t20250123_25254674.html
Sorry for spamming but these dates seem somehow related/clustered together:
1. Stargate project announced 21 jan 2025
2. Arvix white paper on DeepSeek performance released 22 jan 2025
3. Bank of China 137B AI investment announced 23 jan 2025
4. Zuck Giga Ai datacenter announced 24 jan 2025
Something cooks here…whats your oppinion?
Thats what i thought when i only read about deepseek and meta avgo related things. After composing the list above i changed my thinking :)))
What’s your conclusion ?
NVIDIA is powerful but can drop to 120-130$ before rallye to 170$.
as a crude analogy, when a game console first comes out each generation of games for it gets better and better as programmers learn how to squeeze the most out of hardware. china just did that, made their NES console perform as good or even better than SuperNintendo without a hardware upgrade which come to think of it is even more astonishing.
the deep seek news has now thrown all analysis into chaos it would seem