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Hi Sam,
If investing in QQQ calls, would be an option to look at the QQQ3? (which offers a theoretical 3x and practical >2 x NASDAQ?). Similarly the 3USL for S & P 500?
Thanks.
Leveraged ETFs could work. It requires a deep analysis of the ETF, its history and reliability. Levered ETFs have a history of being extremely unreliable. Especially if you start to go up to 3x leverage.
I don’t follow the leveraged QQQ ETFs enough to get a read on their reliability. I need to run a historical analysis and see how they’ve performed during different periods relative to the QQQ.
I spent a good amount of time doing that for NVDL and found NVDL to be very reliable.
What do you look for to assess it to be “reliable”?
Hi Sam, I trust your conviction in NVDL but how about AAPB? It’s listed the same as NVDL as granite shares 2x long just for Apple, would you say that it should be as reliable as NVDL since it seems it’s the same fund?
I think you’re good. I took it as a green light, since they are similar Graniteshares products. I am using those etfs when I am restricted from putting on the actual trade.
For your options-style portfolio, like Stark, what is the likely maximum hedge you think you may use at any one time, relative to the 100k total portfolio size.
I’m asking for my medium-term planning, so ball-park estimate would be good enough.
Sorry, I should have phrased it as “For your options-style portfolio, like Stark, what is the likely maximum hedge IN SHORT POSITIONS you think you may use at any one time, relative to the 100k total portfolio size.
You can probably get a sense of that by looking at the other portfolio. I don’t think of it so much in terms of ratios like that. it’s mostly based on coverage. The hedge needs to be large enough to off-set a 2022 style sell-off in the market. Otherwise you’re not hedged.
In both Arryn and Lannister, it’s about 8%. We’re hedged with about $8,000.00 out of $100k.
With Arryn, we may reposition completely given how green we are. It’s possible we may increase the hedge to protect profits as well as cost-basis.
Ok thanks. For the benefit of other Canadians with registered accounts (RRSP & TFSA), let me explain the strategy that I’ve found. It allows trading Stark-style portfolio in registered accounts.
In my registered account I have activated options level 2 with my broker (Questrade), allowing me to hold LONG options and sell “real” covered calls, but no short positions. Level 2 is the maximum for a registered account in Canada. I will trade up to 85k in this account.
In my margin account, where I can short sell stocks and options with Level 4 options, I will allocate the missing 15k. The total 100k will constitute one Frey portfolio.
Scale to taste.
Hey Sam, will you be posting any trade watches today?
No. Nothing has pulled back enough to buy yet. Not the type of stock we’d be interested in buying for the portfolios.
Apple touched 240 this morning. Are you looking to add the second call if it gets there again or does it depend on where QQQ stands?
Sam said nothing pulled back enough to place trades … see above
Hi Sam,
I saw MSTR on your Baratheon watchlist, I’d like to hear your views on this stock when you get a chance. Tia.
It looks like retail in general is was down in December and it could unwind further, independent of the overall market or the tech sector. Netflix seems to be gathering a lot of interest from new shows so it does seem promising as a run up on oversold QQQ. Thank you for the updates
I am not a fan nor a pro of patterns, but someone pointed out that the major indices are pattern-pointing to Jan 20-21 (hint: inauguration day). This would be in favor of more sideway action until then, then some serious bull.
Here’s an example that I’ve drawn for DIA.
Interesting
I would be curious to know your opinion on the bond market, and do you think it will have a serious impact on the direction of QQQ in the short term? There appears to be a lot of news on it now, and I would think it would negatively affect QQQ in the short term as the 10-year bond rates are higher than normal and closer to 5%.