Samwise Model Portfolios
The portfolios below are separated by launch dates. Each portfolio is entirely independent and has no bearing on any other model portfolio. We launch entirely new portfolios during each market correction as an illustrative tool for new subscribers who weren't present during...
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Sam, so for near and intermediate positions, sounds like we need to start looking to exit those positions now to first week of January ahead of the next deep correction, yes? (Based on what I saw in the outlook sessions).
For our own analysis, would looking at RSI 1hr, 4hr, and daily indicators be the first area you’d evaluate when liquidating positions? Any scans on options flow activity? And how do you view previous support levels during these large corrections?
Thank you again,
So for our four main long-term portfolios — Lannister, Arryn, Tarly and Tyrell — we almost never exit our positions. We simply remain long, long-term. We then use intermediate-term peaks as opportunities to reposition our hedges, sell option premium or write covered calls against our long positions.
So there we’re not really doing anything that doesn’t involve hedging.
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Short-term trading wise, we’re 1/3rd long at the current moment and the plan there is to sell when we feel the rebound has ended — probably close to $525-$527 range on the QQQ — OR we might sell weekly options against that QQQ position.
In terms of indicators, it’s hourly RSI for short-term, daily RSI for intermediate-term term. There are some daily indicators that also point toward a near-term rebound. If the QQQ becomes deeply oversold on the daily or the NYMO becomes deeply oversold that those inceptors have both short-term and intermediate-term implications.
But we’re not quite there yet.
In terms of options flows, I don’t pay particularly close attention to that beyond looking at the put-call ratio.
We do online support/resistance levels. Particularly gap-lines given the strong tendency for stocks to gravitate to those levels.
Right now, the election gap is the big line of support.
Great, thank you for the thorough response.
Sam, qqq and dow have barely moved while nvda is inching close to 140. Is there more upside maybe to 145 or even 150? I’m considering holding through the week. Any thoughts?
It could be. But Nvidia runs into its own resistance zone between $140-$145. What’s more, Nvidia is getting closer to overbought conditions. Once it reaches overbought, it’s up for another $12-$15 pull-back which will likely coincide with the market pull-back.
Sam,
I’m looking to buy nvda in the 12x level – closer to $120 would be cool, I wonder if it’s a good idea to add to my dec 2026 calls that I bought with you in the Lannister portfolio ? or do you have suggestions for a different leap calls. tia…