Samwise Quick Reference Handbook
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Hi Sam,
Seeing that 7.1% is already so close to 8% and not too far off from 10%, how should we handle / think about the situation where the QQQ starts gapping down into the 9% range? Does the speed and intensity the QQQ enters these buy zones inform us on the urgency of us going long? For example, if the QQQ starts gapping into the 9% range, does that give us any pause on the waiting to start our buying until 10% instead?
Thanks!
I think it’s a mix of both the QQQ nearing oversold conditions + the percentage down from its highs prompts actions.
Right now we’re nowhere near oversold. We did need a few more bars down to get there.
And today’s close doesn’t help any
Hey Sam,
didnt you say yesterday that this is a correction already? Looking at the charts i have a hard time believing the market would only drop by 8-10%. It looks like a tiny blip next to this rally, I also would not be surprised if this is the start of the next bear market since valuations are so high.
SO this is for sure a departure from the normal segment > rally cycle. We’re either already in a correction and we’ll find out if the QQQ goes under $590 soon; or we’re forming a complex top like Jan 2025.
The biggest indicator of that is how long the QQQ has been trading lower. At 15-days — das of yesterday, we’re unlikely to be in a simple segment.
That’s a new behavior. Every other pull-back we’ve seen has gone for 3-7 days. We’re at 15+ now which is more in-line with what we’d see in a correction.
What do you expect to happen if it is a complex top? Do we get close to the highs/potentially make slightly higher new highs and then go into an even bigger correction? (not tariff-level big but bigger than we expected this one to go for?)
Thanks for your guidance Sam! I’m also close to a 27% put position in my portfolio. Weren’t we planning on selling a portion of those puts at around the 10% mark in the correction?
Yeah, so we will sell a portion of those as the QQQ goes lower.
So once we get to around 35 RSI, we would probably substantially reduce
We’re gonna wanna keep about 12.5% as a hedge
looks like the end of the post got cut off
Yeah, I’m gonna go check that in a moment. I don’t know what happened there.
I know yesterday you said that if QQQ closed above 600, then 613 would be the next target. It didn’t, but today it looks like it might. Is 613 still the next target in that case? Or does the reversal from 606 nullify that?
No, so the whole idea of 613 is that it’s the 50% retracement point for the whole move down from 625.
The second leg gown that we’re on right now ends if we go above 613.
If QQQ gets above 613, then it has a chance to rally further?
Also, with such a big rally, how likely do you think this percentage leads to a bear market? Or is there really know way to know until the next intermediate rally fails to meet the previous highs?
So there’s no way to really know whether you’re ever in a bear market as things unfold in a bear market the same way they do in a correction. It’s always subtle.
So for example, imagine in April if rather than breaking out above 500 The QQQ reached for 470, stopped and then had another like down to 350.
That’s how a bear market would go
Sam, NVDA reported really good earnings and guidance. Does that change anything with regard to the immediate short-term for the market?
No not at all.
The rally that you’ve seen from 86 up to 200 encapsulate the entire Nvidia story
It’s all built into the valuation already. Otherwise, the video wouldn’t be up here at 196. The market wasn’t confident in stock.
That has little to do with correction timing and the need for retracementS.
Retracements are going to occur regardless.
Earnings isn’t a majorly important variable when it comes to corrections. The market will forget about earnings within a few days at most.
QQQ is rallying a little bit in extended hours due to NVDA. QQQ is up to $606.90. How high do you think QQQ is likely to go before this little rally fizzles out?
Reaction looks positive early on, but there’s a long way to market open. There was a day a couple weeks ago where I went to bed at 2:00am seeing futures getting battered and woke up to see barely a dip at market open. Nvidia’s insanely profitable and demand for their chips remains insanely high but we already knew that. I don’t think there was anything in the earnings that signals a fundamental shift (Nvidia or market-related). Good ass company had a good ass quarter
I remember the US credit rating got downgraded on a Friday and the market was down…only to recover by the following Monday. And on the flip side, Nvidia’s second-to-last (I think) earnings were good and it was up big after hours, only to give away most of those gains by opening the next way
You ok, Sam? The post cut off and there has been no communication since then
Yeah something happened. I’m not really sure. I have to go take a look. I might’ve saved an old copy on accident. I can probably pull up the actual copy.
Hey Sam,
Here is a link to checkout for fun if you have some free time. The analyst, Beth Kindig, makes a case for nvda having a 20 trillion market cap by 2030. Would be curious of your take.
https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvidia-stock-20-trillion-market-cap-2030
she also made a case few weeks back that nvda will possibly visit the 130 zone in the near-mid term before embark on the next rally
150s she said I believe. She forecasted the dip below 100 in April in January I believe.
Wasn’t it in March 2025 that she said that?
Funny, that’s what I was saying to Sam a few days ago.
My analysis:
Major support around the 200-day moving average (~$150-155): a long-term floor.
Immediate resistance in the ~$185-190 zone: the price is struggling to move away from this in the short term.
A congestion/intermediate zone around ~$165-175 could be a retracement level if selling pressure increases.
A bullish break above ~$190-195 would open up potential to ~$200-220 and higher, but confirmation is needed. Short- to medium-term target price (6-12 months): As things stand, a reasonable scenario is for the price to consolidate in the ~$165-$190 range, with a modest target of ~$200-$220 if momentum picks up.
About Beth Kindig analysis :
More ambitious target price (2-3 years): If the fundamentals hold, a range of ~$250-$300 could be achievable within 2-3 years ( i think 300$ – 350$ possible at december 2026)
Ultra-long-term target price (2030 according to thesis): Reaching a valuation of $20 trillion implies a much higher price (considering the number of similar shares). For example: if 24.3 billion shares (≈ as currently) × $20 trillion → price ≈ ≈ $825. This is highly speculative and depends on multiple variables.